WHAT YOU SEE IS WHAT YOU GET?

Most teams in Major League Baseball have a "baseball analytics" department in charge of crunching data to find new ways to improve baseball decision making.  The traditional "scouts" perform the eye test and the data analysis guys run the numbers and interpret results.  The correct balance and meshing of both disciplines should produce the best results.

Fangraphs and Baseball Reference, are two of the groups processing data and evaluating players quantifying the different aspects of the game like hitting, pitching, fielding and running.  The WAR metric ( Wins Above Replacement) is intended to capture the total value of the player and put it in a number.  It is not perfect but it is the best we have now.  I am sure in the near future it will be fine-tuned some more.  WAR will vary for each group due to differences in the calculations.  There is an effort to streamline the methodologies to arrive at more consistent results.

Yoenis Cespedes, the 29 year old LF for the Boston Red Sox, has been in MLB since 2012.  He is a "toolsy" player winning 2 HR Derbies and made a couple of big fly throws to put runners out at home in 2014.  He's been all across the news and very visible with the "wow' factor.  Cespedes is a very good player whose main asset is power.  His defense improved a lot in 2014.  He passes the eye test very well.  Some sports media people think Cespedes is an excellent power hitter because of the Derbies and his batting practice exploits. Sorry, his power has translated well but nothing exceptional. 

Yoenis Cespedes homering in Oakland

Cuban compatriot, 26 year old Leonys Martin, CF of the Texas Rangers is a very different type of player and much less recognized.  A below average hitter, Martin usually hits near the bottom of the Rangers batting order and right now is mainly a defense and speed guy at a premium defensive position. 

Leonys Martin in Arlington.

The following table compares the 2013 and 2014 years for Cespedes and Martin.  2012 is not included because of few at bats for Martin:

NAME	YEAR	fWAR	bWAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR-- RBI	SB - CS
Yoenis Cespedes	2013	2.2	1.6	.240/.294/.442	26-80	7 - 7
	2014	3.4	4.1	.260/.301/.450	22-100	7 - 2
TOTAL WAR		5.6	5.7
Leonys Martin	2013	2.8	3.1	.260/.313/.385	8-49	36 - 9
	2014	3.5	4.6	.274/.325/.364	7-40	31 - 12
TOTAL WAR		6.3	7.7

Fangraphs ( fWAR) and Baseball Reference (bWAR) although they differ in totals both point to Martin as the player with more value.  Cespedes' low batting average and OBP% pull down his offensive numbers despite the power. His defense in 2014 was the 3rd best in MLB only behind Alex Gordon and Christian Yelich, with a 4.5 defensive value and 12 Defensive Runs Saved.  

Leonys Martin providing stellar defense in CF

Martin has a better BA, OBP% and much less power.  He's the 4th best CF in 2014 with a 13.4 value and 15 Defensive Runs Saved only behind defensive whiz Juan Lagares at the premium CF position.  Besides the stellar defense he's racked up 67 stolen bases the last 2 years at a 76% success rate.  If he can pull his offense up to league average he can add even more value.  About half of Martin's value is in his defense and base running while Cespedes is mainly an offensive player.  

Cespedes pulled in about 20 million for both years, while Martin took in about 7 million.  They say there is a premium on right-handed power hitters, so Yoenis Cespedes should get a nice contract after 2015.  Martin will keep on providing very good value for his team and be relatively ignored.  The takeaway here is that the much lesser known Martin according to the new metrics provides a little more value than the well regarded Cespedes at about one third of the cost.  Of  importance also is how a player fits into the needs of a particular team.

OFF SEASON BASEBALL

Coming up this week we'll have some international baseball action.  A Group of MLB players managed by John Farrell of the Boston Red Sox, will tour Japan for a 7 game series ( 2 exhibitions and 5 games against Samurai Japan).  The formerly called, Japan All Stars are now National Team "Samurai Japan".  This 2014 edition, after an 8 year pause, will feature All Stars like Robinson Cano, Evan Longoria and batting champs Jose Altuve, Justin Morneau and some solid Japanese talent like fireballer Shohei Otani, Seiichi Uchikawa, Yuki Yanagita, Sho Nakata, Kenta Maeda and Hayato Sakamoto. Most of these Japanese players have WBC experience.  The Americans have dominated these series and 2014 should be no different.  Japan has an edge in its meticulous preparation and we'll see how this translates into wins.  All in all, a good series with some nice talent on display. There is a Latin flavor on the MLB team with 10 of 29 players (34%).  Four Dominicans and four Venezuelans lead this group.  Overall, this is a team with pretty good position players and very questionable pitching.  Matt Shoemaker and Hisashi Iwakuma are the best starting pitchers with Mark Melancon and Tommy Hunter the 2 best relievers.

20 year old Shohei Otani, the next Japan pitching star?  (stripealley.com)

Starting Saturday in Veracruz, Mexico, the 22nd Central American and Caribbean Games will include a baseball tournament with 8 teams (Cuba, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Venezuela, Panama, Nicaragua, Mexico and Guatemala?).  Didn't really know they played baseball in Guatemala.  Teams like Dominican, Puerto Rico, Venezuela and Mexico that have Winter Leagues will be sending low level squads to compete.  Cuba on the other hand, is sending their "A" team with WBC and Japan League experience.  Seems like a little overkill or trying to kill a mosquito with a cannon.  It could have been a great opportunity for the Cuban Baseball Federation to send a young manager with mostly good young players to cut their teeth in low level international competition.  Wins for Cuba have been few and far between recently, so this could be the motivation.  The Cuban players have nothing to do with the present debacle.  The sole fault rests with this sport governing body.  They took them from the top of the amateur baseball world to the present situation in a jiffy. Changes at the international level and limited vision caused the Cuban baseball bubble to burst and put them in the box they are now trying to crawl out.  The talent of the Cuban player is undeniable despite some rough edges.  Exposure to better baseball always results in better players.


MLB Network, the baseball channel, has done a good job of promoting baseball.  They can improve programming, especially this time of year, with some live games from the Dominican Republic.  This top echelon winter league offers very good games with a peek at young foreign and native prospects and minor leaguers trying to sharpen their skills for an opportunity at the "Big Show".  Later in the season some established Major Leaguers can be seen helping teams classify for the play-offs.  This baseball hotbed offers a ready made product for MLB Network.

Padres C Yasmani Grandal displaying power with Toros del Este in DR

GOOD BAD AND UGLY

Recently, Fangraphs published a couple articles on the best defensive players at each position in the Major Leagues.  Applying new methodology they are trying to quantify the defensive part of the game and produce something besides the eye test and the traditional errors and fielding percentage. It's far from perfect now, but a step in the right direction and should improve over time. Two defensive metrics, (UZR- Ultimate Zone Rating and DRS- Defensive Runs Saved) are used as a base for the calculations.  For catchers, it's a little bit different.

Sometimes these ratings coincide with the Gold Glove given out by MLB for the best defensive players, sometimes they don't. The list presents the top 3 and bottom 3 at each position.  I'll just make a few comments based on this information.

CF Juan Lagares  best defensive player in MLB 2014

The top 3 defensive players with the highest scores in the AL belong to the Kansas City Royals.  Outfielders Jarrod Dyson (23.4), Alex Gordon (18.9) and Lorenzo Cain ( 16.7) all roam the spacious outfield at Kauffman Stadium.  We saw how great they are in the recently finalized post season.  The top rated defensive player in all of baseball was CF Juan Lagares of the New York Mets with 24.7.  The 25 year old Dominican is a super defensive player.  

Defensive whiz Juan Lagares at Citi Field.

The best defensive infielder was Andrelton Simmons, SS of the Atlanta Braves with 17.0.  The 25 year old native from Curacao was the best overall defender in MLB last year, so the consistency is there.  3B Chase Headley of SD Padres and NY Yankees did very well in 2nd place with 15.7 and 2B Dustin Pedroia of the Bosox was 3rd with 14.9.  

Andrelton Simmons with some help from Freddie Freeman

The Miami Marlins had the worst defensive catcher (Jarrod Saltalamacchia ) in MLB with an ugly -29.9, the 2nd worst first baseman  in the NL ( Garrett Jones) with -3.5 and the 2nd worst SS in the NL ( Adeiny Hechavarria) with -4.6.  There is a lot of defensive shakiness on the Marlins. On the other hand, Christian Yelich  was rated the best LF in the NL with 10.9.  Hechavarria, the 25 year old Cuban, passes the eye test and some people ( especially Marlins people) think the advanced defensive metrics doesn't capture his true value and think he is a Gold Glove quality defender despite very poor ratings.  He might be improving but he's still around the bottom.  His fielding percentage went from  .976 to .979, his errors from 15 to 14 and his Defensive Runs Saved remained the same at -3.  The Zone Rating is not kind to Hechavarria, meaning a lot of balls hit in his area are not converted to outs.  This might be due to defensive positioning.

Marlins Adeiny Hechavarria improving but still rating low.

There is a small but growing pool of Cuban players in MLB and a few of them showed up on these lists.  Yoenis Cespedes, has shown improvement his 3 years going from bad in 2012 to average in 2013 to pretty good in 2014. He is now only behind Alex Gordon in LF with 10.1 in the AL.  On the negative side we have SS Yunel Escobar of the Tampa Bay Rays with an ugly -17.3, the worst figures of his career and of his position in MLB this year.  The above mentioned Adeiny Hechavarria with a -4.6 , the 2nd worst mark in the NL only behind Hanley Ramirez of the Dodgers with -10.5.  The Chicago White Sox sport a pair of bad fielders in Jose Abreu ( -7.0) the worst defensive first baseman in MLB and Dayan Viciedo with -12.3, the 3rd worst RF in the AL.

MULTITASKING

Jose Abreu had a great year for the Chicago White Sox.  He broke Ron Kittle's rookie HR record of 35 and finished high on the leaderboard in the main hitting categories in the AL, .317/.383/.581 with 36 HR's and 107 RBI's.  In the process he racked up 14, 18 and 21 game hitting streaks.  The Cuban slugger established himself as an offensive force in the American League.  Fangraphs WAR leaders for first basemen finds him in 3rd place with 5.3 WAR, only behind Anthony Rizzo of the Cubs with 5.6 and Miguel Cabrera of the Tigers with 5.4 WAR.  He lags behind because of his fielding and base running, not because of his hitting.

Jose Abreu first career home run in Colorado.

The overall numbers were great but it was a tale of two seasons for the 27 year old Abreu, hitting .292/.342/.630 in the first half and .350/.435/.513 in the second half showing a very high batting average but a serious drop in power numbers.  He hit 29 HR's before the All Star game and only 7 after the break.  Some say Abreu got tired but Alexei Ramirez and Yoenis Cespedes under similar circumstances finished very strong in their rookie years.  His .350 batting average suggests he wasn't tired.

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ALEXEI RAMIREZ 2008	HR	AVERAGE
FIRST HALF	7	0.312
SECOND HALF	14	0.269
YOENIS CESPEDES 2012
FIRST HALF	9	0.263
SECOND HALF	14	0.311

Jose Abreu has an advanced offensive approach and should keep on hitting for good average and power. I don't think his 2014 season is repeatable because of his very high BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play).  He registered .437 and .439 in July and August when he had his hitting streaks.  His overall .356 BABIP is still very high and very difficult to repeat.  Both, Alexei Ramirez and Yoenis Cespedes had their best offensive seasons in their first year.  I hope Abreu doesn't peak in his first year like Benito Santiago, the Rookie of the Year in 1987 with San Diego who hit .300 and had a rookie and catcher record 34 game hitting streak.  He never approached those numbers the rest of his career.  Abreu might be in for some serious regression in his offensive output.  Some inside info on Abreu shows he hit only .236 on ground balls which he hit little over 45% of the time and .220 on curve balls during the season.  He hit .377 on fly balls.

So what can we expect in the future from Jose Abreu?  The power hitting slugger or the high average hitter.?  To fulfill expectations he has to multitask, hitting for power and average.  To be elite you have to be able to walk and chew gum.

POSTSEASON 2014

The 2014 postseason has been outstanding.  Close and well played games with unlikely heroes.  Often the "little guy" performs well on the big stage and this year is no exception.  Some teams seem to be changing with the weather from the promise of potential to becoming very hard to beat.  The teams with the best records and fat payrolls have exited the scene.

The sooner the manager realizes the postseason is different and a greater sense of urgency is needed in decision making and in-game strategy, probably the more successful he'll be.  We've seen good teams with questionable managerial moves now sitting on the sidelines.  In a short series anything can and will happen.  You can't afford to make many mistakes and especially repeat those mistakes.  In the regular season, what didn't work today may work next week.  You don't have that luxury in the postseason.  When the tide is shifting a quick reaction is needed.

Brad Ausmus had a tough postseason.

Brad Ausmus got burned twice by Joba Chamberlain and Joakim Soria.  The first one was on them, the second one was on Brad Ausmus.  This was a bad move with disastrous results.

Jarrod Dyson of Kansas City stole second base but was called out by over sliding the bag.  It clearly looked like Jonathan Schoop nudged the foot off the base.  Ned Yost thought the call was correct and the tag was proper.  On this play, the least you could do is protest vehemently so the next time this happens you have a chance of getting a questionable call.  Kansas City is so hot, this didn't matter.  But you need to lay the groundwork for the future as the stolen base is a vital part of the Royals game.  A no move with good results.  However, Yost has done some good things by shortening the game depending more on his relievers.

Jarrod Dyson nudged off the bag?

It's more convenient for managers to follow a script or plan for a game.  Sometimes, in the postseason you have to throw in the kitchen sink to win a ball game, which is not the case in the regular season. If your team never has a lead in a close 3 game series, does it mean you'll never use your best reliever (closer) or you'll use him in high leverage situations even if it's not the last inning?  

Ned Yost riding the Kansas City wave

Some managers seem to be using a magic wand with a lot of positive moves while others can't seem to find their way out of a paper bag.  Teams with better personnel keep losing to teams with less talent.  

Buck Showalter  trying to stop the streaking Royals.

There is an element of luck in all of this.  Maybe it's better to be lucky than good. Perhaps the sabermetricians can identify and quantify the luck factor. The Kansas City Royals seem to have all of these elements wrapped up into a nice 6 game winning streak and are on the verge of tying the "Big Red Machine" of 1976 who went 7-0 in the postseason sweeping the Phillies and Yankees.  Buck Showalter of the Orioles is a very good manager. I get the impression he'll need lightning in a bottle or a magic lamp to stop these Royals. Kansas City is inspired and plays the game with enthusiasm and "gusto".  The best of the postseason is yet to come.

SEÑOR SMOKE

There was a Mexican reliever for the Detroit Tigers in the early to mid 80's who threw very hard and called himself "Señor Smoke".  Aurelio Lopez had a few very good seasons with the Tigers and passed away in 1992 in an auto accident after his retirement in 1987.  Remembering Aurelio Lopez, we borrow the "Señor Smoke" moniker to typify the very hard closers we have in MLB today.

Aurelio Lopez  Original Señor Smoke    (cbssports.com)

They're supposed to get the last 3 outs of the game and seal the W.  These guys are usually the hardest throwers and rely on blazing fastballs. A few have little over average velocities but have mastered other pitches and have great deception to get valuable outs.  In close games, the last 3 outs of the game weigh like lead.  They need nerves of steel and great focus and execution to get the job done.  Closers live on the edge and are in a universe of their own where they need a quick memory turnover.  There is a big difference between pitching the 8th and 9th innings.

Starting pitchers with good stuff but with limited secondary pitches and repertoire are prime candidates for the bullpen and eventually the closer role.  The move from the rotation to the bullpen will add 2-3 mph to an already good fastball.

Delin Betances   Watch out Jose Altuve

We'll look at the top 10 relievers in MLB in 2014 according to Fangraphs' "Reliever WAR metrics".

NAME	IP	HR/9	ERA	K%	FB VE	WAR
Delin Betances	90.0	0.40	1.40	39.6	96.6	3.2
Wade Davis	72.0	0.00	1.00	39.1	95.7	3.1
Aroldis Chapman	54.0	0.17	2.00	52.5	100.3	2.7
Jake McGee	71.1	0.25	1.89	32.9	96.3	2.6
Sean Doolittle	62.2	0.72	2.73	37.7	94.0	2.4
Andrew Miller	62.1	0.43	2.02	42.6	93.9	2.3
Greg Holland	62.1	0.43	1.44	37.5	95.8	2.3
Craig Kimbrel	61.2	0.29	1.61	38.9	97.1	2.2
Steve Cishek	65.1	0.41	3.17	30.6	91.7	2.0
Kenley Jansen	65.1	0.69	2.76	37.7	93.7	2.0

Aroldis Chapman throwing the slider more

As we can see , the two best relievers in baseball are not closers but closers "in waiting".  Delin Betances of the Yankees and Wade Davis of the Royals are 8th inning guys who should soon become closers.  Betances was a starter in the Minor Leagues and Davis was a starter for Tampa Bay and KC.  Of the current closers, Aroldis Chapman leads in WAR despite pitching the fewest innings.  Betances and Davis get credit for pitching more innings and doing so effectively.  That puts them above Chapman in WAR.  The best closer is not the one with the most "saves" but the one with the best overall numbers as Fangraphs points out.  Aroldis Chapman was the best closer in MLB in 2014 despite not pitching in April. 

Aroldis Chapman  100 mph smoke

2014 saw Chapman with a much higher K/9 rate, allowing only 1 HR and a record shattering 100.3 mph on his average fastball.  His fastball usage declined to a career low 69%, his slider increased to a high of 24% with a budding change up 7% of the time.  At age 26, Chapman is at the top of his game and at the top of the "totem pole" as the ultimate "Señor Smoke".
Chapman's progression from 2011-2014:

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YEAR	IP	K/9	HR	ERA	WAR	FB V	FB%	SL%	CH%
2011	50.0	12.78	2	3.60	0.4	97.9	84	16	0.0
2012	71.2	15.32	4	1.51	3.3	97.7	88	12	0.0
2013	63.2	15.83	7	2.54	1.6	98.3	85	15	0.0
2014	54.0	17.67	1	2.00	2.7	100.3	69	24	7.0

.300 HITTERS

Seventeen hitters reached the coveted .300 batting average in MLB in 2014 (minimum 500 plate appearances).  17 of approximately 255 regular hitters is 6.7%.  The cream of the crop average-wise.  In sabermetric circles and cubicles less importance is given to Batting Average.  It's not the ultimate stat but it's very important as it is the biggest component of On Base Percentage (OBP).  With this list of elite batting average hitters and the high strikeout rates prevalent today we took a quick look at the relationship between batting average and strikeouts.

The sample here included the 17 hitters that hit .300 plus 13 more to complete the highest 30 averages in MLB in 2014.  The lowest average included was .287.  
                                     K RATE %
.300 hitters                    12.5
non .300 hitters             18.2
MLB average 2014       20.4

Victor Martinez and Miguel Cabrera at Comerica

There's 46% more strikeouts for the non .300 hitters.  The only .300 hitters with more than 20% K rate were Jose Abreu with 21.1% and Lorenzo Cain with 20.9%.  There are 5 hitters with less than double-digit K rate, Victor Martinez with 6.6%, Jose Altuve (7.5%), Ben Revere ( 7.8%), Michael Brantley with 8.3% and Denard Span with 9.7%.  Altuve, Revere and Span are top of the order hitters while Martinez and Brantley are middle of the order sluggers.  Victor Martinez will be 36 years old in December, missed all of the 2012 season with an injury and had the best year of his career in 2014 when he should be past his peak.  His .335/.409/.565 line with 32 HR's and 103 RBI's with the lowest K rate in MLB shows skills of the real great hitters. High batting average, excellent power and very low K rate.  He had 70 walks and 42 strikeouts. Victor Martinez, in my humble opinion, has been the best hitter in MLB in 2014.  Martinez even outhit the great Miguel Cabrera, who had a down year with .314/.371/.524 with 25 HR's and 109 RBI's. The two "Venezuelan Bashers" were the best 3-4 hitters in the Major Leagues and the only duo with over .300 average and 100 RBI's each.  

Victor Martinez at work in Camden Yards

Victor Martinez peppering the Green Monster

Victor Martinez MLB best hitter 2014

This small observation suggests that most elite hitters strike out a lot less than 20% while the .280-.290 hitters can strike out around  20% and still be very productive.  Also there is a trend-line showing that elite batting averages are negatively impacted by high K rates.  This negative relationship shows that when one goes up the other goes down.  

ROYAL RUN

Hats off to the Kansas City Royals as they sit in first place of the AL Central (70 W-56 L) 1-1/2 games ahead of the Detroit Tigers.  Thanks to a 22-8 record in their last 30 games (the best in baseball) and with less than 40 games to go the Royals have their first shot at the postseason since 1985 (28 years).

Kansas City is not your typical club and one has to look a little to see the efficiencies of this team.  They don't get much publicity, play in a small market and have no superstars.  They are not a high profile team like their main division opponent the Detroit Tigers.  The Tigers boast a lot of star power with Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and David Price while the Royals have no one with more than 15 HR's (Salvador Perez) no more than 66 RBI's (Alex Gordon) and no .300 hitters.  While KC might still fall flat and miss the playoffs, I think they look good the rest of the way.  

LF Alex Gordon of the KC Royals  (zimbio.com)

 

 

Their best player is relatively unknown.  Alex Gordon with a .284-14-66 line is a superb defensive outfielder and very good base runner.  Fangraphs has him at 5.7 WAR, the best mark for a position player in MLB just ahead of Mike Trout with 5.6.  His defense and base running put him over the top.  The Royals don't hit HR's (78 last in MLB), they don't walk ( only 291 walks, last in MLB,  compared to the Oakland A's 466 ) but are 2nd in the AL in batting average with .265 only behind the Tigers with .271.  Since 2013 they are the best defensive team in MLB and lead the AL with 110 steals and only 24 caught stealing for an 82% success rate.  In this era of high strikeout rates, they have the least strikeouts in MLB with 748 compared to 1129 for the Miami Marlins.

Kelvin Herrera, 24 year old in KC bullpen  (piodeportes.com)

The starting rotation is very good with veterans at the top (James Shields 3.28, Jason Vargas 3.17 and Jeremy Guthrie at 4.48) and 2 power arms filling out the rotation ( Yordano Ventura at 3.48 and Danny Duffy at 2.53 ERA ).  The best bullpen trio in baseball toils in KC:
                                  IP         H       HR    K       ERA
Kelvin Herrera        53.0       40       0      46       1.53
Wade Davis            55.1       28       0      85       0.81
Greg Holland          49.1       34       3      70       1.82
Total                      157.2     102      3      201     1.37    

Wade Davis , 85 K's out of KC bullpen  (zimbio.com)

A modern day trio of the "Nasty Boys" like the 1990 Cincinnati Reds?

Greg Holland, KC closer with 39 saves  (rantsports.com)

The Royals play a very anti-modern era baseball.  They don't hit   
HR's, they don't walk and they don't strikeout and besides they steal bases.  The KC model is "put the ball in play, steal bases, play airtight defense and have the bullpen ready".  They have a payroll of 105 million compared to 184 M for the Tigers.  If you like the underdog, root for the KC Royals as they battle the Detroit Tigers during the September pennant drive.        

VANISHING BREED

The power hitter is a very valuable commodity.  The guys that can hit home runs and extra bases consistently and can change the game with a swing of the bat are in high demand in this pitching dominated game of today.  Strikeouts are at an all time high so power hitters with good contact skills are at a premium and almost a vanishing breed. The assumption here is that a batted ball out is more productive than a strikeout. Currently there are 18 hitters in MLB with a .500 + slugging percentage.  18 of approximately 255 gives us 7%, the cream of the crop.  If we filter this group for relatively low strikeout rates and about almost even walk rates we narrow down to only 4.  4 of 255 is 1.6%, the elite.  
                                Slug%/HR        W        K         K/W ratio
1  Victor Martinez      .565/23          38        34        0.89
2  Michael Brantley   .509/16          37         39        1.05
3  Troy Tulowitzki      .603/21          50         57        1.14
4  Jose Bautista        .525/22          74         70        0.95

Troy Tulowitzki of the Rockies  (cbssports.com)

These few combine the best power with contact skills.  Only Martinez and Bautista have more walks than strikeouts.  Lot of big names missing like Mike Trout,  Miguel Cabrera, Andrew McCutchen and Edwin Encarnacion.

Victor Martinez of the Detroit Tigers  (isportsweb.com)

Mike Trout with 121 K's and a career high strikeout rate (24.4%) is trending in the wrong direction (19.0% K rate in 2013).  With a high BABIP ( batting average on balls in play) of .359 the strikeout is very counter productive.  Batted balls can lead to productive outs.  With about 50-60 less K's, Trout might have 3-4 more HR's, more RBI's and a better batting average.  

Michael Brantley LF Cleveland Indians  (zimbio.com)

Miguel Cabrera has a career 843 walks and 1278 strikeouts (1.5 K/W ratio).  From 2004-2009, 6 consecutive years, he struck out more than 100 times/season.  The last 4 years, his most productive, (2010-2013) he's stayed under 100 K's and won 3 consecutive batting titles and a triple crown. During this period his walks, 353 and strikeouts, 376 have almost drawn even ( 1.1 K/W) making him the ultra plus hitter he is.  His HR numbers increased and his K's went down. 

Jose Bautista of the Toronto Blue Jays  (baseballworlw.com)

Here are some obscenely good K/W ratios from power hitters of the past.  These are career numbers:
                                                 W            K           K/W ratio
Willie Mays             1464         1526          1.04
Frank Robinson      1420         1532          1.08
Hank Aaron            1402         1383          0.99
Mickey Mantle        1733         1710          0.99
Stan Musial            1599           696          0.44
Ted Williams           2021           709          0.35
Barry Bonds           2558         1539          0.60
Rafael Palmeiro     1353         1348          0.99

RADIO TIME

The Los Angeles Dodgers are bringing back Vin Scully to broadcast games in 2015.  This will be Scully's 66th season (all with the Dodgers) doing play-by-play and deservedly so as he continues to set the "gold standard" with his elegant calling of baseball games. Scully has a plaque in Cooperstown.

Vin Scully of the Dodgers   (officialvinscully.com)

There was a time when my lifeline to real-time MLB games was listening to AFRTS ( American Forces Radio and Television Service) on short-wave radio beamed to US servicemen overseas.  Their almost daily radio broadcasts of baseball games gave me the opportunity to listen to the great broadcasters of the time:  Mel Allen, Harry Caray, Jack Buck, Bob Prince, Don Elson, Ernie Harwell, Curt Gowdy and of course Vin Scully.  We received some late issues of "The Sporting News" ( the Baseball Bible), but radio was "king". 

The now 86 year old Scully and his then sidekick, Jerry Doggett, delighted Dodgers' fans from 1956 to 1987.  Vin painted such a picture of the game with his clear expression and command of the language it was a pleasure listening to him despite not being a Dodgers fan.

We developed an almost religious following of the MLB game without watching any games just listening to radio broadcasts.
 

Pedro Ramos of the Cienfuegos Elephants  (cubanbeisbol.com)

Curveball king Camilo Pascual   (twinstrivia.com)

On the Spanish-speaking side, I remember listening to games from "Estadio El Cerro" in Havana, Cuba, between Habana, Almendares,
Cienfuegos and Marianao.  Games were called by Rafael "Felo" Ramirez and Cuco Conde on Radio CMQ.  This was the era of Camilo Pascual, Pedro Ramos, Tony "Haitiano" Gonzalez and Leonardo Cardenas among many others including imports like Rocky Nelson that made this the strongest Caribbean winter league.
With the Cuban "diaspora" Felo Ramirez became a Latin American broadcaster trekking through Puerto Rico, Venezuela, Nicaragua, etc. becoming the best of his craft in Spanish.  A Ford Frick Award winner in 2001 with a plaque in Cooperstown, the 93 year old Ramirez continues to do games for the Miami Marlins in 2014.

Felo Ramirez of the Miami Marlins  (palabranueva.net)

Frequent World Series meetings between the Brooklyn Dodgers and New York Yankees in the 1950's were transmitted by the Gillette Cavalcade of Sports (Cabalgata Deportiva Gillette) by legendary Buck Canel, Ford Frick Award winner in 1985, and Felo Ramirez in Spanish for Latin America.  This was the era of Mickey Mantle, Duke Snider, Yogi Berra, Roy Campanella, etc.  This was the "Golden Age" of radio broadcasts to Spanish- speaking countries. Current ESPN Spanish broadcasts leave a lot to be desired.  

Organizations have to be careful choosing their broadcast teams.  There are quite a few sub-standard teams out there.  Some believe the more you talk the better it is.  Au contraire, measured talk with relevant information is music to the ears. 

Radio has lost its position but back then it was everything and played a vital role in spreading the great game.  Like good wine, Vin Scully and Felo Ramirez are still going strong.  Two fine gentlemen of the "National Pastime" and two great "radio voices".

AGE OF K

The great game of baseball has seen many changes during the last 50 years.  Change is a constant and makes the game more dynamic.  Fifty years is a nice slice of the pastime ( 50 of 139 years = 36%).  Let's take a quick look at offense and run production from then until now.  Remarkably, the more the game has changed since 1964 the more the results remain the same with one big exception.

Some of the significant changes to affect run production have been: expansion, the designated hitter, the pitcher's mound and the strike zone, PEDs (Performance Enhancing Drugs), the ballparks and  sabermetrics to name the most prominent.   It has not been a smooth line but a lot of peaks and valleys that have brought us to the low run-scoring environment we have today.

Roberto Clemente led MLB with .339 avg in 1964  (sportscube.com)

Willie Mays was the best player in 1964  (villagevoice.com)

Let's put 1964 in context.  The Saint Louis Cardinals beat the New York Yankees in the World Series 4 games to 3.  There were 20 teams in MLB, 10 in each league and no playoffs.  MLB played from 1901 to 1960 with 16 teams, 8 in each league.  In 1961 two teams were added to the American League ( Los Angeles Angels and the Washington Senators).  The original Senators moved from Washington to Minnesota after the 1960 season and they were replaced in 1961.  The National League added two teams in 1962, the New York Mets and the Houston Colt .45's.  So 1964 finds us in the early years of expansion.  Roberto Clemente led the NL with .339 average and Tony Oliva the AL with .323.  Harmon Killebrew (49) and Willie Mays (47) led their leagues in HR's.  Ken Boyer of the Cardinals and Brooks Robinson of the Orioles were league MVP's.  Willie Mays had the highest WAR in baseball (11.1) making him the best player in the game, the second best was Ron Santo of the Cubs with a distant 8.9.  Hall of Famer, Nellie Fox, almost at the end of his career with Houston struck out 13 times in 502 plate appearances.  He finished his career with 216 total strikeouts in 10,351 trips to the plate.  He never struck out more than 18 times in any season.  On the pitching side, Dean Chance of the Angels was the Cy Young winner ( only 1 for the 2 leagues ) with a 20-9 and 1.65 ERA with 11 shotouts in 278 IP.  Don Drysdale led the Majors with 321 innings pitched and had 21 complete games.  Juan Marichal went 21-8 with 22 complete games.  Dick "The Monster" Radatz of the Red Sox led MLB with 29 saves appearing in 79 games with 157 IP and 181 strikeouts all in relief.  The hard throwing RHP was one of the precursors of today's flame throwers.  Baseball Reference's Defensive WAR has White Sox SS Ron Hansen, who played winter baseball in Nicaragua with the Boer Indians, as the best defensive player in MLB with 4.0 WAR.

Dean Chance Cy Young winner in 1964  (zimbio.com)

Don Drysdale led MLB with 321 IP in 1964   (zimbio.com)

1968, "The Year of the Pitcher" was right around the corner. Denny McClain was 31-6 and Bob Gibson had a 1.12 ERA  with 28 complete games and 13 shotouts. 1969 saw a lowering of the mound and a tightening of the strike zone to help the offense. The Designated Hitter appeared in the AL in 1973 to help offense. The PEDs explosion and demise and the rise of Sabermetrics to complement traditional baseball knowledge have all had their impact on the game.  New ballparks and the greater influx of Asian and Latin players have made their mark.  The great game just keeps rolling along.

Juan Marichal was 21-8 with 22 complete games in 1964 (zimbio.com)

Dick Radatz with 29 saves and 157 IP 181 K's in relief  (fenwayparkdiaries)

Here are some vital statistics  comparing 1964 to 2014:
                 R/G     HR/G    AVG    W            K
1964        4.04       .85      .250     2.96        5.91
2014        4.11       .88      .252     2.95        7.72                                 
% change  1.7       3.5      .01       .01          30.6

With all the changes the last 50 years, the numbers are pretty similar.  It looks like normal year to year variation except for the last column where the strikeout rate has skyrocketed.  Strikeouts were looked at more negatively in 1964 from the hitters standpoint.  Today's free swinging hitters and higher velocity starters and bullpen make this possible.  All parameters are about the same except for the K rate.  28% of games were completed in 1964 and only 2 % today leading to much different pitcher usage patterns.  
                                 %IP     K/G    W/G      ERA
1964      Starters       74.0      5.8     2.8         3.58
              Relievers    26.0      6.4     3.4         3.57

2014      Starters       67.0      7.4     2.8         3.90
              Relievers    33.0      8.5     3.4         3.57

In 1964 not much difference between starters and relievers ERA.  Today's relievers have the same ERA as the 1964 group pitching more innings and striking out more hitters.  The biggest difference is in today's starters who have a higher ERA.  Could it be the effect of the lesser quality of the 5th starter compared to the 4 man rotations of the past?  Or something else?  Notice the identical walks/game for both groups over time.

MLB league wide fielding percentage in 1964 was .977.  Today it is .984 ( this is the 25th consecutive year at .980 or better).  This fielding % applied to 1964 would have resulted in 876 less total errors ( .27 less error/game).  The base stealing success rate today is 73% compared to around 62% in 1964.