Sunday, November 23, 2014

WHAT YOU SEE IS WHAT YOU GET?


Most teams in Major League Baseball have a "baseball analytics" department in charge of crunching data to find new ways to improve baseball decision making.  The traditional "scouts" perform the eye test and the data analysis guys run the numbers and interpret results.  The correct balance and meshing of both disciplines should produce the best results.

Fangraphs and Baseball Reference, are two of the groups processing data and evaluating players quantifying the different aspects of the game like hitting, pitching, fielding and running.  The WAR metric ( Wins Above Replacement) is intended to capture the total value of the player and put it in a number.  It is not perfect but it is the best we have now.  I am sure in the near future it will be fine-tuned some more.  WAR will vary for each group due to differences in the calculations.  There is an effort to streamline the methodologies to arrive at more consistent results.

Yoenis Cespedes, the 29 year old LF for the Boston Red Sox, has been in MLB since 2012.  He is a "toolsy" player winning 2 HR Derbies and made a couple of big fly throws to put runners out at home in 2014.  He's been all across the news and very visible with the "wow' factor.  Cespedes is a very good player whose main asset is power.  His defense improved a lot in 2014.  He passes the eye test very well.  Some sports media people think Cespedes is an excellent power hitter because of the Derbies and his batting practice exploits. Sorry, his power has translated well but nothing exceptional. 
Yoenis Cespedes homering in Oakland

Cuban compatriot, 26 year old Leonys Martin, CF of the Texas Rangers is a very different type of player and much less recognized.  A below average hitter, Martin usually hits near the bottom of the Rangers batting order and right now is mainly a defense and speed guy at a premium defensive position. 
Leonys Martin in Arlington.
The following table compares the 2013 and 2014 years for Cespedes and Martin.  2012 is not included because of few at bats for Martin:

NAMEYEARfWARbWARAVG/OBP/SLGHR-- RBISB - CS
Yoenis Cespedes20132.21.6.240/.294/.442 26-807 - 7

20143.44.1.260/.301/.450 22-1007 - 2
TOTAL WAR
5.65.7









Leonys Martin20132.83.1.260/.313/.3858-4936 - 9

20143.54.6.274/.325/.3647-4031 - 12
TOTAL WAR
6.37.7




Fangraphs ( fWAR) and Baseball Reference (bWAR) although they differ in totals both point to Martin as the player with more value.  Cespedes' low batting average and OBP% pull down his offensive numbers despite the power. His defense in 2014 was the 3rd best in MLB only behind Alex Gordon and Christian Yelich, with a 4.5 defensive value and 12 Defensive Runs Saved.  
Leonys Martin providing stellar defense in CF

Martin has a better BA, OBP% and much less power.  He's the 4th best CF in 2014 with a 13.4 value and 15 Defensive Runs Saved only behind defensive whiz Juan Lagares at the premium CF position.  Besides the stellar defense he's racked up 67 stolen bases the last 2 years at a 76% success rate.  If he can pull his offense up to league average he can add even more value.  About half of Martin's value is in his defense and base running while Cespedes is mainly an offensive player.  

Cespedes pulled in about 20 million for both years, while Martin took in about 7 million.  They say there is a premium on right-handed power hitters, so Yoenis Cespedes should get a nice contract after 2015.  Martin will keep on providing very good value for his team and be relatively ignored.  The takeaway here is that the much lesser known Martin according to the new metrics provides a little more value than the well regarded Cespedes at about one third of the cost.  Of  importance also is how a player fits into the needs of a particular team.

No comments:

Post a Comment