Friday, August 8, 2014

VANISHING BREED



The power hitter is a very valuable commodity.  The guys that can hit home runs and extra bases consistently and can change the game with a swing of the bat are in high demand in this pitching dominated game of today.  Strikeouts are at an all time high so power hitters with good contact skills are at a premium and almost a vanishing breed. The assumption here is that a batted ball out is more productive than a strikeout. Currently there are 18 hitters in MLB with a .500 + slugging percentage.  18 of approximately 255 gives us 7%, the cream of the crop.  If we filter this group for relatively low strikeout rates and about almost even walk rates we narrow down to only 4.  4 of 255 is 1.6%, the elite.  
                                Slug%/HR        W        K         K/W ratio
1  Victor Martinez      .565/23          38        34        0.89
2  Michael Brantley   .509/16          37         39        1.05
3  Troy Tulowitzki      .603/21          50         57        1.14
4  Jose Bautista        .525/22          74         70        0.95
Troy Tulowitzki of the Rockies  (cbssports.com)
These few combine the best power with contact skills.  Only Martinez and Bautista have more walks than strikeouts.  Lot of big names missing like Mike TroutMiguel Cabrera, Andrew McCutchen and Edwin Encarnacion.

Victor Martinez of the Detroit Tigers  (isportsweb.com)

Mike Trout with 121 K's and a career high strikeout rate (24.4%) is trending in the wrong direction (19.0% K rate in 2013).  With a high BABIP ( batting average on balls in play) of .359 the strikeout is very counter productive.  Batted balls can lead to productive outs.  With about 50-60 less K's, Trout might have 3-4 more HR's, more RBI's and a better batting average.  
Michael Brantley LF Cleveland Indians  (zimbio.com)

Miguel Cabrera has a career 843 walks and 1278 strikeouts (1.5 K/W ratio).  From 2004-2009, 6 consecutive years, he struck out more than 100 times/season.  The last 4 years, his most productive, (2010-2013) he's stayed under 100 K's and won 3 consecutive batting titles and a triple crown. During this period his walks, 353 and strikeouts, 376 have almost drawn even ( 1.1 K/W) making him the ultra plus hitter he is.  His HR numbers increased and his K's went down. 
Jose Bautista of the Toronto Blue Jays  (baseballworlw.com)

Here are some obscenely good K/W ratios from power hitters of the past.  These are career numbers:
                                                 W            K           K/W ratio
Willie Mays             1464         1526          1.04
Frank Robinson      1420         1532          1.08
Hank Aaron            1402         1383          0.99
Mickey Mantle        1733         1710          0.99
Stan Musial            1599           696          0.44
Ted Williams           2021           709          0.35
Barry Bonds           2558         1539          0.60
Rafael Palmeiro     1353         1348          0.99

No comments:

Post a Comment