AGE OF K

The great game of baseball has seen many changes during the last 50 years.  Change is a constant and makes the game more dynamic.  Fifty years is a nice slice of the pastime ( 50 of 139 years = 36%).  Let's take a quick look at offense and run production from then until now.  Remarkably, the more the game has changed since 1964 the more the results remain the same with one big exception.

Some of the significant changes to affect run production have been: expansion, the designated hitter, the pitcher's mound and the strike zone, PEDs (Performance Enhancing Drugs), the ballparks and  sabermetrics to name the most prominent.   It has not been a smooth line but a lot of peaks and valleys that have brought us to the low run-scoring environment we have today.

Roberto Clemente led MLB with .339 avg in 1964  (sportscube.com)

Willie Mays was the best player in 1964  (villagevoice.com)

Let's put 1964 in context.  The Saint Louis Cardinals beat the New York Yankees in the World Series 4 games to 3.  There were 20 teams in MLB, 10 in each league and no playoffs.  MLB played from 1901 to 1960 with 16 teams, 8 in each league.  In 1961 two teams were added to the American League ( Los Angeles Angels and the Washington Senators).  The original Senators moved from Washington to Minnesota after the 1960 season and they were replaced in 1961.  The National League added two teams in 1962, the New York Mets and the Houston Colt .45's.  So 1964 finds us in the early years of expansion.  Roberto Clemente led the NL with .339 average and Tony Oliva the AL with .323.  Harmon Killebrew (49) and Willie Mays (47) led their leagues in HR's.  Ken Boyer of the Cardinals and Brooks Robinson of the Orioles were league MVP's.  Willie Mays had the highest WAR in baseball (11.1) making him the best player in the game, the second best was Ron Santo of the Cubs with a distant 8.9.  Hall of Famer, Nellie Fox, almost at the end of his career with Houston struck out 13 times in 502 plate appearances.  He finished his career with 216 total strikeouts in 10,351 trips to the plate.  He never struck out more than 18 times in any season.  On the pitching side, Dean Chance of the Angels was the Cy Young winner ( only 1 for the 2 leagues ) with a 20-9 and 1.65 ERA with 11 shotouts in 278 IP.  Don Drysdale led the Majors with 321 innings pitched and had 21 complete games.  Juan Marichal went 21-8 with 22 complete games.  Dick "The Monster" Radatz of the Red Sox led MLB with 29 saves appearing in 79 games with 157 IP and 181 strikeouts all in relief.  The hard throwing RHP was one of the precursors of today's flame throwers.  Baseball Reference's Defensive WAR has White Sox SS Ron Hansen, who played winter baseball in Nicaragua with the Boer Indians, as the best defensive player in MLB with 4.0 WAR.

Dean Chance Cy Young winner in 1964  (zimbio.com)

Don Drysdale led MLB with 321 IP in 1964   (zimbio.com)

1968, "The Year of the Pitcher" was right around the corner. Denny McClain was 31-6 and Bob Gibson had a 1.12 ERA  with 28 complete games and 13 shotouts. 1969 saw a lowering of the mound and a tightening of the strike zone to help the offense. The Designated Hitter appeared in the AL in 1973 to help offense. The PEDs explosion and demise and the rise of Sabermetrics to complement traditional baseball knowledge have all had their impact on the game.  New ballparks and the greater influx of Asian and Latin players have made their mark.  The great game just keeps rolling along.

Juan Marichal was 21-8 with 22 complete games in 1964 (zimbio.com)

Dick Radatz with 29 saves and 157 IP 181 K's in relief  (fenwayparkdiaries)

Here are some vital statistics  comparing 1964 to 2014:
                 R/G     HR/G    AVG    W            K
1964        4.04       .85      .250     2.96        5.91
2014        4.11       .88      .252     2.95        7.72                                 
% change  1.7       3.5      .01       .01          30.6

With all the changes the last 50 years, the numbers are pretty similar.  It looks like normal year to year variation except for the last column where the strikeout rate has skyrocketed.  Strikeouts were looked at more negatively in 1964 from the hitters standpoint.  Today's free swinging hitters and higher velocity starters and bullpen make this possible.  All parameters are about the same except for the K rate.  28% of games were completed in 1964 and only 2 % today leading to much different pitcher usage patterns.  
                                 %IP     K/G    W/G      ERA
1964      Starters       74.0      5.8     2.8         3.58
              Relievers    26.0      6.4     3.4         3.57

2014      Starters       67.0      7.4     2.8         3.90
              Relievers    33.0      8.5     3.4         3.57

In 1964 not much difference between starters and relievers ERA.  Today's relievers have the same ERA as the 1964 group pitching more innings and striking out more hitters.  The biggest difference is in today's starters who have a higher ERA.  Could it be the effect of the lesser quality of the 5th starter compared to the 4 man rotations of the past?  Or something else?  Notice the identical walks/game for both groups over time.

MLB league wide fielding percentage in 1964 was .977.  Today it is .984 ( this is the 25th consecutive year at .980 or better).  This fielding % applied to 1964 would have resulted in 876 less total errors ( .27 less error/game).  The base stealing success rate today is 73% compared to around 62% in 1964.