SEÑOR SMOKE

There was a Mexican reliever for the Detroit Tigers in the early to mid 80's who threw very hard and called himself "Señor Smoke".  Aurelio Lopez had a few very good seasons with the Tigers and passed away in 1992 in an auto accident after his retirement in 1987.  Remembering Aurelio Lopez, we borrow the "Señor Smoke" moniker to typify the very hard closers we have in MLB today.

Aurelio Lopez  Original Señor Smoke    (cbssports.com)

They're supposed to get the last 3 outs of the game and seal the W.  These guys are usually the hardest throwers and rely on blazing fastballs. A few have little over average velocities but have mastered other pitches and have great deception to get valuable outs.  In close games, the last 3 outs of the game weigh like lead.  They need nerves of steel and great focus and execution to get the job done.  Closers live on the edge and are in a universe of their own where they need a quick memory turnover.  There is a big difference between pitching the 8th and 9th innings.

Starting pitchers with good stuff but with limited secondary pitches and repertoire are prime candidates for the bullpen and eventually the closer role.  The move from the rotation to the bullpen will add 2-3 mph to an already good fastball.

Delin Betances   Watch out Jose Altuve

We'll look at the top 10 relievers in MLB in 2014 according to Fangraphs' "Reliever WAR metrics".

NAME	IP	HR/9	ERA	K%	FB VE	WAR
Delin Betances	90.0	0.40	1.40	39.6	96.6	3.2
Wade Davis	72.0	0.00	1.00	39.1	95.7	3.1
Aroldis Chapman	54.0	0.17	2.00	52.5	100.3	2.7
Jake McGee	71.1	0.25	1.89	32.9	96.3	2.6
Sean Doolittle	62.2	0.72	2.73	37.7	94.0	2.4
Andrew Miller	62.1	0.43	2.02	42.6	93.9	2.3
Greg Holland	62.1	0.43	1.44	37.5	95.8	2.3
Craig Kimbrel	61.2	0.29	1.61	38.9	97.1	2.2
Steve Cishek	65.1	0.41	3.17	30.6	91.7	2.0
Kenley Jansen	65.1	0.69	2.76	37.7	93.7	2.0

Aroldis Chapman throwing the slider more

As we can see , the two best relievers in baseball are not closers but closers "in waiting".  Delin Betances of the Yankees and Wade Davis of the Royals are 8th inning guys who should soon become closers.  Betances was a starter in the Minor Leagues and Davis was a starter for Tampa Bay and KC.  Of the current closers, Aroldis Chapman leads in WAR despite pitching the fewest innings.  Betances and Davis get credit for pitching more innings and doing so effectively.  That puts them above Chapman in WAR.  The best closer is not the one with the most "saves" but the one with the best overall numbers as Fangraphs points out.  Aroldis Chapman was the best closer in MLB in 2014 despite not pitching in April. 

Aroldis Chapman  100 mph smoke

2014 saw Chapman with a much higher K/9 rate, allowing only 1 HR and a record shattering 100.3 mph on his average fastball.  His fastball usage declined to a career low 69%, his slider increased to a high of 24% with a budding change up 7% of the time.  At age 26, Chapman is at the top of his game and at the top of the "totem pole" as the ultimate "Señor Smoke".
Chapman's progression from 2011-2014:

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YEAR	IP	K/9	HR	ERA	WAR	FB V	FB%	SL%	CH%
2011	50.0	12.78	2	3.60	0.4	97.9	84	16	0.0
2012	71.2	15.32	4	1.51	3.3	97.7	88	12	0.0
2013	63.2	15.83	7	2.54	1.6	98.3	85	15	0.0
2014	54.0	17.67	1	2.00	2.7	100.3	69	24	7.0

.300 HITTERS

Seventeen hitters reached the coveted .300 batting average in MLB in 2014 (minimum 500 plate appearances).  17 of approximately 255 regular hitters is 6.7%.  The cream of the crop average-wise.  In sabermetric circles and cubicles less importance is given to Batting Average.  It's not the ultimate stat but it's very important as it is the biggest component of On Base Percentage (OBP).  With this list of elite batting average hitters and the high strikeout rates prevalent today we took a quick look at the relationship between batting average and strikeouts.

The sample here included the 17 hitters that hit .300 plus 13 more to complete the highest 30 averages in MLB in 2014.  The lowest average included was .287.  
                                     K RATE %
.300 hitters                    12.5
non .300 hitters             18.2
MLB average 2014       20.4

Victor Martinez and Miguel Cabrera at Comerica

There's 46% more strikeouts for the non .300 hitters.  The only .300 hitters with more than 20% K rate were Jose Abreu with 21.1% and Lorenzo Cain with 20.9%.  There are 5 hitters with less than double-digit K rate, Victor Martinez with 6.6%, Jose Altuve (7.5%), Ben Revere ( 7.8%), Michael Brantley with 8.3% and Denard Span with 9.7%.  Altuve, Revere and Span are top of the order hitters while Martinez and Brantley are middle of the order sluggers.  Victor Martinez will be 36 years old in December, missed all of the 2012 season with an injury and had the best year of his career in 2014 when he should be past his peak.  His .335/.409/.565 line with 32 HR's and 103 RBI's with the lowest K rate in MLB shows skills of the real great hitters. High batting average, excellent power and very low K rate.  He had 70 walks and 42 strikeouts. Victor Martinez, in my humble opinion, has been the best hitter in MLB in 2014.  Martinez even outhit the great Miguel Cabrera, who had a down year with .314/.371/.524 with 25 HR's and 109 RBI's. The two "Venezuelan Bashers" were the best 3-4 hitters in the Major Leagues and the only duo with over .300 average and 100 RBI's each.  

Victor Martinez at work in Camden Yards

Victor Martinez peppering the Green Monster

Victor Martinez MLB best hitter 2014

This small observation suggests that most elite hitters strike out a lot less than 20% while the .280-.290 hitters can strike out around  20% and still be very productive.  Also there is a trend-line showing that elite batting averages are negatively impacted by high K rates.  This negative relationship shows that when one goes up the other goes down.  

ROYAL RUN

Hats off to the Kansas City Royals as they sit in first place of the AL Central (70 W-56 L) 1-1/2 games ahead of the Detroit Tigers.  Thanks to a 22-8 record in their last 30 games (the best in baseball) and with less than 40 games to go the Royals have their first shot at the postseason since 1985 (28 years).

Kansas City is not your typical club and one has to look a little to see the efficiencies of this team.  They don't get much publicity, play in a small market and have no superstars.  They are not a high profile team like their main division opponent the Detroit Tigers.  The Tigers boast a lot of star power with Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and David Price while the Royals have no one with more than 15 HR's (Salvador Perez) no more than 66 RBI's (Alex Gordon) and no .300 hitters.  While KC might still fall flat and miss the playoffs, I think they look good the rest of the way.  

LF Alex Gordon of the KC Royals  (zimbio.com)

 

 

Their best player is relatively unknown.  Alex Gordon with a .284-14-66 line is a superb defensive outfielder and very good base runner.  Fangraphs has him at 5.7 WAR, the best mark for a position player in MLB just ahead of Mike Trout with 5.6.  His defense and base running put him over the top.  The Royals don't hit HR's (78 last in MLB), they don't walk ( only 291 walks, last in MLB,  compared to the Oakland A's 466 ) but are 2nd in the AL in batting average with .265 only behind the Tigers with .271.  Since 2013 they are the best defensive team in MLB and lead the AL with 110 steals and only 24 caught stealing for an 82% success rate.  In this era of high strikeout rates, they have the least strikeouts in MLB with 748 compared to 1129 for the Miami Marlins.

Kelvin Herrera, 24 year old in KC bullpen  (piodeportes.com)

The starting rotation is very good with veterans at the top (James Shields 3.28, Jason Vargas 3.17 and Jeremy Guthrie at 4.48) and 2 power arms filling out the rotation ( Yordano Ventura at 3.48 and Danny Duffy at 2.53 ERA ).  The best bullpen trio in baseball toils in KC:
                                  IP         H       HR    K       ERA
Kelvin Herrera        53.0       40       0      46       1.53
Wade Davis            55.1       28       0      85       0.81
Greg Holland          49.1       34       3      70       1.82
Total                      157.2     102      3      201     1.37    

Wade Davis , 85 K's out of KC bullpen  (zimbio.com)

A modern day trio of the "Nasty Boys" like the 1990 Cincinnati Reds?

Greg Holland, KC closer with 39 saves  (rantsports.com)

The Royals play a very anti-modern era baseball.  They don't hit   
HR's, they don't walk and they don't strikeout and besides they steal bases.  The KC model is "put the ball in play, steal bases, play airtight defense and have the bullpen ready".  They have a payroll of 105 million compared to 184 M for the Tigers.  If you like the underdog, root for the KC Royals as they battle the Detroit Tigers during the September pennant drive.        

VANISHING BREED

The power hitter is a very valuable commodity.  The guys that can hit home runs and extra bases consistently and can change the game with a swing of the bat are in high demand in this pitching dominated game of today.  Strikeouts are at an all time high so power hitters with good contact skills are at a premium and almost a vanishing breed. The assumption here is that a batted ball out is more productive than a strikeout. Currently there are 18 hitters in MLB with a .500 + slugging percentage.  18 of approximately 255 gives us 7%, the cream of the crop.  If we filter this group for relatively low strikeout rates and about almost even walk rates we narrow down to only 4.  4 of 255 is 1.6%, the elite.  
                                Slug%/HR        W        K         K/W ratio
1  Victor Martinez      .565/23          38        34        0.89
2  Michael Brantley   .509/16          37         39        1.05
3  Troy Tulowitzki      .603/21          50         57        1.14
4  Jose Bautista        .525/22          74         70        0.95

Troy Tulowitzki of the Rockies  (cbssports.com)

These few combine the best power with contact skills.  Only Martinez and Bautista have more walks than strikeouts.  Lot of big names missing like Mike Trout,  Miguel Cabrera, Andrew McCutchen and Edwin Encarnacion.

Victor Martinez of the Detroit Tigers  (isportsweb.com)

Mike Trout with 121 K's and a career high strikeout rate (24.4%) is trending in the wrong direction (19.0% K rate in 2013).  With a high BABIP ( batting average on balls in play) of .359 the strikeout is very counter productive.  Batted balls can lead to productive outs.  With about 50-60 less K's, Trout might have 3-4 more HR's, more RBI's and a better batting average.  

Michael Brantley LF Cleveland Indians  (zimbio.com)

Miguel Cabrera has a career 843 walks and 1278 strikeouts (1.5 K/W ratio).  From 2004-2009, 6 consecutive years, he struck out more than 100 times/season.  The last 4 years, his most productive, (2010-2013) he's stayed under 100 K's and won 3 consecutive batting titles and a triple crown. During this period his walks, 353 and strikeouts, 376 have almost drawn even ( 1.1 K/W) making him the ultra plus hitter he is.  His HR numbers increased and his K's went down. 

Jose Bautista of the Toronto Blue Jays  (baseballworlw.com)

Here are some obscenely good K/W ratios from power hitters of the past.  These are career numbers:
                                                 W            K           K/W ratio
Willie Mays             1464         1526          1.04
Frank Robinson      1420         1532          1.08
Hank Aaron            1402         1383          0.99
Mickey Mantle        1733         1710          0.99
Stan Musial            1599           696          0.44
Ted Williams           2021           709          0.35
Barry Bonds           2558         1539          0.60
Rafael Palmeiro     1353         1348          0.99

RADIO TIME

The Los Angeles Dodgers are bringing back Vin Scully to broadcast games in 2015.  This will be Scully's 66th season (all with the Dodgers) doing play-by-play and deservedly so as he continues to set the "gold standard" with his elegant calling of baseball games. Scully has a plaque in Cooperstown.

Vin Scully of the Dodgers   (officialvinscully.com)

There was a time when my lifeline to real-time MLB games was listening to AFRTS ( American Forces Radio and Television Service) on short-wave radio beamed to US servicemen overseas.  Their almost daily radio broadcasts of baseball games gave me the opportunity to listen to the great broadcasters of the time:  Mel Allen, Harry Caray, Jack Buck, Bob Prince, Don Elson, Ernie Harwell, Curt Gowdy and of course Vin Scully.  We received some late issues of "The Sporting News" ( the Baseball Bible), but radio was "king". 

The now 86 year old Scully and his then sidekick, Jerry Doggett, delighted Dodgers' fans from 1956 to 1987.  Vin painted such a picture of the game with his clear expression and command of the language it was a pleasure listening to him despite not being a Dodgers fan.

We developed an almost religious following of the MLB game without watching any games just listening to radio broadcasts.
 

Pedro Ramos of the Cienfuegos Elephants  (cubanbeisbol.com)

Curveball king Camilo Pascual   (twinstrivia.com)

On the Spanish-speaking side, I remember listening to games from "Estadio El Cerro" in Havana, Cuba, between Habana, Almendares,
Cienfuegos and Marianao.  Games were called by Rafael "Felo" Ramirez and Cuco Conde on Radio CMQ.  This was the era of Camilo Pascual, Pedro Ramos, Tony "Haitiano" Gonzalez and Leonardo Cardenas among many others including imports like Rocky Nelson that made this the strongest Caribbean winter league.
With the Cuban "diaspora" Felo Ramirez became a Latin American broadcaster trekking through Puerto Rico, Venezuela, Nicaragua, etc. becoming the best of his craft in Spanish.  A Ford Frick Award winner in 2001 with a plaque in Cooperstown, the 93 year old Ramirez continues to do games for the Miami Marlins in 2014.

Felo Ramirez of the Miami Marlins  (palabranueva.net)

Frequent World Series meetings between the Brooklyn Dodgers and New York Yankees in the 1950's were transmitted by the Gillette Cavalcade of Sports (Cabalgata Deportiva Gillette) by legendary Buck Canel, Ford Frick Award winner in 1985, and Felo Ramirez in Spanish for Latin America.  This was the era of Mickey Mantle, Duke Snider, Yogi Berra, Roy Campanella, etc.  This was the "Golden Age" of radio broadcasts to Spanish- speaking countries. Current ESPN Spanish broadcasts leave a lot to be desired.  

Organizations have to be careful choosing their broadcast teams.  There are quite a few sub-standard teams out there.  Some believe the more you talk the better it is.  Au contraire, measured talk with relevant information is music to the ears. 

Radio has lost its position but back then it was everything and played a vital role in spreading the great game.  Like good wine, Vin Scully and Felo Ramirez are still going strong.  Two fine gentlemen of the "National Pastime" and two great "radio voices".

AGE OF K

The great game of baseball has seen many changes during the last 50 years.  Change is a constant and makes the game more dynamic.  Fifty years is a nice slice of the pastime ( 50 of 139 years = 36%).  Let's take a quick look at offense and run production from then until now.  Remarkably, the more the game has changed since 1964 the more the results remain the same with one big exception.

Some of the significant changes to affect run production have been: expansion, the designated hitter, the pitcher's mound and the strike zone, PEDs (Performance Enhancing Drugs), the ballparks and  sabermetrics to name the most prominent.   It has not been a smooth line but a lot of peaks and valleys that have brought us to the low run-scoring environment we have today.

Roberto Clemente led MLB with .339 avg in 1964  (sportscube.com)

Willie Mays was the best player in 1964  (villagevoice.com)

Let's put 1964 in context.  The Saint Louis Cardinals beat the New York Yankees in the World Series 4 games to 3.  There were 20 teams in MLB, 10 in each league and no playoffs.  MLB played from 1901 to 1960 with 16 teams, 8 in each league.  In 1961 two teams were added to the American League ( Los Angeles Angels and the Washington Senators).  The original Senators moved from Washington to Minnesota after the 1960 season and they were replaced in 1961.  The National League added two teams in 1962, the New York Mets and the Houston Colt .45's.  So 1964 finds us in the early years of expansion.  Roberto Clemente led the NL with .339 average and Tony Oliva the AL with .323.  Harmon Killebrew (49) and Willie Mays (47) led their leagues in HR's.  Ken Boyer of the Cardinals and Brooks Robinson of the Orioles were league MVP's.  Willie Mays had the highest WAR in baseball (11.1) making him the best player in the game, the second best was Ron Santo of the Cubs with a distant 8.9.  Hall of Famer, Nellie Fox, almost at the end of his career with Houston struck out 13 times in 502 plate appearances.  He finished his career with 216 total strikeouts in 10,351 trips to the plate.  He never struck out more than 18 times in any season.  On the pitching side, Dean Chance of the Angels was the Cy Young winner ( only 1 for the 2 leagues ) with a 20-9 and 1.65 ERA with 11 shotouts in 278 IP.  Don Drysdale led the Majors with 321 innings pitched and had 21 complete games.  Juan Marichal went 21-8 with 22 complete games.  Dick "The Monster" Radatz of the Red Sox led MLB with 29 saves appearing in 79 games with 157 IP and 181 strikeouts all in relief.  The hard throwing RHP was one of the precursors of today's flame throwers.  Baseball Reference's Defensive WAR has White Sox SS Ron Hansen, who played winter baseball in Nicaragua with the Boer Indians, as the best defensive player in MLB with 4.0 WAR.

Dean Chance Cy Young winner in 1964  (zimbio.com)

Don Drysdale led MLB with 321 IP in 1964   (zimbio.com)

1968, "The Year of the Pitcher" was right around the corner. Denny McClain was 31-6 and Bob Gibson had a 1.12 ERA  with 28 complete games and 13 shotouts. 1969 saw a lowering of the mound and a tightening of the strike zone to help the offense. The Designated Hitter appeared in the AL in 1973 to help offense. The PEDs explosion and demise and the rise of Sabermetrics to complement traditional baseball knowledge have all had their impact on the game.  New ballparks and the greater influx of Asian and Latin players have made their mark.  The great game just keeps rolling along.

Juan Marichal was 21-8 with 22 complete games in 1964 (zimbio.com)

Dick Radatz with 29 saves and 157 IP 181 K's in relief  (fenwayparkdiaries)

Here are some vital statistics  comparing 1964 to 2014:
                 R/G     HR/G    AVG    W            K
1964        4.04       .85      .250     2.96        5.91
2014        4.11       .88      .252     2.95        7.72                                 
% change  1.7       3.5      .01       .01          30.6

With all the changes the last 50 years, the numbers are pretty similar.  It looks like normal year to year variation except for the last column where the strikeout rate has skyrocketed.  Strikeouts were looked at more negatively in 1964 from the hitters standpoint.  Today's free swinging hitters and higher velocity starters and bullpen make this possible.  All parameters are about the same except for the K rate.  28% of games were completed in 1964 and only 2 % today leading to much different pitcher usage patterns.  
                                 %IP     K/G    W/G      ERA
1964      Starters       74.0      5.8     2.8         3.58
              Relievers    26.0      6.4     3.4         3.57

2014      Starters       67.0      7.4     2.8         3.90
              Relievers    33.0      8.5     3.4         3.57

In 1964 not much difference between starters and relievers ERA.  Today's relievers have the same ERA as the 1964 group pitching more innings and striking out more hitters.  The biggest difference is in today's starters who have a higher ERA.  Could it be the effect of the lesser quality of the 5th starter compared to the 4 man rotations of the past?  Or something else?  Notice the identical walks/game for both groups over time.

MLB league wide fielding percentage in 1964 was .977.  Today it is .984 ( this is the 25th consecutive year at .980 or better).  This fielding % applied to 1964 would have resulted in 876 less total errors ( .27 less error/game).  The base stealing success rate today is 73% compared to around 62% in 1964.

QUIET EXCELLENCE

Saint Louis Cardinals catcher, Yadier Molina, has been considered for a while as the best backstop in MLB.  His hitting prowess, game calling skills and defense and his lethal effect on the running game have earned him the respect of friends and foes.  The 31 year old Molina along with San Francisco's Buster Posey have been widely considered the two best catchers in the National League.  Molina will be appearing as a starter ( voted by fans) for the NL in the All Star game in Minnesota.

 Quietly toiling in Milwaukee is Brewers C Jonathan Lucroy, a vital cog in his team's race to displace the Cardinals as the NL Central champs.  Playing almost in anonymity the last couple years (2012-2013) Lucroy's 2014 numbers have him at the top of MLB catchers according to Fangraphs WAR advanced metrics.  Posey's numbers are down this year and Molina while still excellent has slipped offensively and is down a few pegs.  
 2014              avg/hr/rbi         OPS       WAR
Lucroy          .327/9/44           908         3.9
Molina          .285/7/30           743         2.5
 

Jonathan Lucroy of the Milwaukee Brewers  (zimbio.com)

Lucroy has been improving his game and is now considered by many statheads and other studious types to be at the top of his position.
                     PA     HR       avg/obp/slg         WAR
2012            346     12       .320/.368/.513       3.6
2013            580     18       .280/.340/.455       3.6
2014            364      9        .327/.396/.512       3.9

Lucroy also rates very high on the newly researched area of "pitch framing", getting more strikes from pitches around the corners of the strike zone.  Fangraphs calculated Lucroy to have 137 more strikes called over Yadier Molina and 160 over Buster Posey for the
2012-2013 seasons.  
 

Jonathan Lucroy vs Reds in Cincinnati  (zimbio.com)

Hitting third in the deep Brewers lineup that includes Ryan Braun, Carlos Gomez and Aramis Ramirez is a testament to the respect he commands.  Maybe he should be the starting C for the All Star game.

WINNING UGLY

Andrew Cashner, the ace of the San Diego Padres pitching staff went on the DL in June and Odrisamer Despaigne was called up from 3A to replace him in the rotation.  The ex Industriales  pitcher in the Cuban League and member of the Cuban National Team in the 2013 WBC signed for a 1.0 million minor league contract  in May and after a brief stop in 2A and 3A ( about 30 IP) was shuttled to San Diego.  The 27 year old RHP was a good pitcher in Cuba but a little below the level of Freddy Asiel Alvarez, Vladimir Garcia and the late Yadier Pedroso.  

With 3 quality starts in 3 outings and a 2-0 record, Despaigne's brand of pitching (deception, off speed pitches and different arm angles) has played well so far.  It's a very small sample size and he should be due for a serious regression going forward.
  IP           H         ER     HR   BB     K        ERA
19.2         11         2        1       8        5         0.92

Odrisamer Despaigne first ML start vs Giants  (zimbio.com)

With more walks than strikeouts, a very low BABIP (.169) very high Left on Base ( 96.6%) and a 4.49 FIP ( Fielding Independent Pitching) Despaigne's numbers should start to even out.
 

Odrisamer Despaigne at Petco Park   (zimbio.com)

Despaigne along with another rookie, Jesse Hahn, ( 4-2 2.34 ERA) have shored up the Padres rotation and helped them reach 3rd place in the NL West.  If San Diego could start hitting they might salvage a pretty bad season.  Despaigne in his 3 starts has 56 called strikes and only 11 swing and miss strikes.  In his last 3 starts of a total of 6, Hahn has 51 called strikes and 42 swing and miss strikes.  Odrisamer has been positive for the team.  When Cashner returns will he still be on the team or will he be sent down to 3A and recalled in September?