ROYAL RUN

Hats off to the Kansas City Royals as they sit in first place of the AL Central (70 W-56 L) 1-1/2 games ahead of the Detroit Tigers.  Thanks to a 22-8 record in their last 30 games (the best in baseball) and with less than 40 games to go the Royals have their first shot at the postseason since 1985 (28 years).

Kansas City is not your typical club and one has to look a little to see the efficiencies of this team.  They don't get much publicity, play in a small market and have no superstars.  They are not a high profile team like their main division opponent the Detroit Tigers.  The Tigers boast a lot of star power with Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and David Price while the Royals have no one with more than 15 HR's (Salvador Perez) no more than 66 RBI's (Alex Gordon) and no .300 hitters.  While KC might still fall flat and miss the playoffs, I think they look good the rest of the way.  

LF Alex Gordon of the KC Royals  (zimbio.com)

 

 

Their best player is relatively unknown.  Alex Gordon with a .284-14-66 line is a superb defensive outfielder and very good base runner.  Fangraphs has him at 5.7 WAR, the best mark for a position player in MLB just ahead of Mike Trout with 5.6.  His defense and base running put him over the top.  The Royals don't hit HR's (78 last in MLB), they don't walk ( only 291 walks, last in MLB,  compared to the Oakland A's 466 ) but are 2nd in the AL in batting average with .265 only behind the Tigers with .271.  Since 2013 they are the best defensive team in MLB and lead the AL with 110 steals and only 24 caught stealing for an 82% success rate.  In this era of high strikeout rates, they have the least strikeouts in MLB with 748 compared to 1129 for the Miami Marlins.

Kelvin Herrera, 24 year old in KC bullpen  (piodeportes.com)

The starting rotation is very good with veterans at the top (James Shields 3.28, Jason Vargas 3.17 and Jeremy Guthrie at 4.48) and 2 power arms filling out the rotation ( Yordano Ventura at 3.48 and Danny Duffy at 2.53 ERA ).  The best bullpen trio in baseball toils in KC:
                                  IP         H       HR    K       ERA
Kelvin Herrera        53.0       40       0      46       1.53
Wade Davis            55.1       28       0      85       0.81
Greg Holland          49.1       34       3      70       1.82
Total                      157.2     102      3      201     1.37    

Wade Davis , 85 K's out of KC bullpen  (zimbio.com)

A modern day trio of the "Nasty Boys" like the 1990 Cincinnati Reds?

Greg Holland, KC closer with 39 saves  (rantsports.com)

The Royals play a very anti-modern era baseball.  They don't hit   
HR's, they don't walk and they don't strikeout and besides they steal bases.  The KC model is "put the ball in play, steal bases, play airtight defense and have the bullpen ready".  They have a payroll of 105 million compared to 184 M for the Tigers.  If you like the underdog, root for the KC Royals as they battle the Detroit Tigers during the September pennant drive.        

VANISHING BREED

The power hitter is a very valuable commodity.  The guys that can hit home runs and extra bases consistently and can change the game with a swing of the bat are in high demand in this pitching dominated game of today.  Strikeouts are at an all time high so power hitters with good contact skills are at a premium and almost a vanishing breed. The assumption here is that a batted ball out is more productive than a strikeout. Currently there are 18 hitters in MLB with a .500 + slugging percentage.  18 of approximately 255 gives us 7%, the cream of the crop.  If we filter this group for relatively low strikeout rates and about almost even walk rates we narrow down to only 4.  4 of 255 is 1.6%, the elite.  
                                Slug%/HR        W        K         K/W ratio
1  Victor Martinez      .565/23          38        34        0.89
2  Michael Brantley   .509/16          37         39        1.05
3  Troy Tulowitzki      .603/21          50         57        1.14
4  Jose Bautista        .525/22          74         70        0.95

Troy Tulowitzki of the Rockies  (cbssports.com)

These few combine the best power with contact skills.  Only Martinez and Bautista have more walks than strikeouts.  Lot of big names missing like Mike Trout,  Miguel Cabrera, Andrew McCutchen and Edwin Encarnacion.

Victor Martinez of the Detroit Tigers  (isportsweb.com)

Mike Trout with 121 K's and a career high strikeout rate (24.4%) is trending in the wrong direction (19.0% K rate in 2013).  With a high BABIP ( batting average on balls in play) of .359 the strikeout is very counter productive.  Batted balls can lead to productive outs.  With about 50-60 less K's, Trout might have 3-4 more HR's, more RBI's and a better batting average.  

Michael Brantley LF Cleveland Indians  (zimbio.com)

Miguel Cabrera has a career 843 walks and 1278 strikeouts (1.5 K/W ratio).  From 2004-2009, 6 consecutive years, he struck out more than 100 times/season.  The last 4 years, his most productive, (2010-2013) he's stayed under 100 K's and won 3 consecutive batting titles and a triple crown. During this period his walks, 353 and strikeouts, 376 have almost drawn even ( 1.1 K/W) making him the ultra plus hitter he is.  His HR numbers increased and his K's went down. 

Jose Bautista of the Toronto Blue Jays  (baseballworlw.com)

Here are some obscenely good K/W ratios from power hitters of the past.  These are career numbers:
                                                 W            K           K/W ratio
Willie Mays             1464         1526          1.04
Frank Robinson      1420         1532          1.08
Hank Aaron            1402         1383          0.99
Mickey Mantle        1733         1710          0.99
Stan Musial            1599           696          0.44
Ted Williams           2021           709          0.35
Barry Bonds           2558         1539          0.60
Rafael Palmeiro     1353         1348          0.99

RADIO TIME

The Los Angeles Dodgers are bringing back Vin Scully to broadcast games in 2015.  This will be Scully's 66th season (all with the Dodgers) doing play-by-play and deservedly so as he continues to set the "gold standard" with his elegant calling of baseball games. Scully has a plaque in Cooperstown.

Vin Scully of the Dodgers   (officialvinscully.com)

There was a time when my lifeline to real-time MLB games was listening to AFRTS ( American Forces Radio and Television Service) on short-wave radio beamed to US servicemen overseas.  Their almost daily radio broadcasts of baseball games gave me the opportunity to listen to the great broadcasters of the time:  Mel Allen, Harry Caray, Jack Buck, Bob Prince, Don Elson, Ernie Harwell, Curt Gowdy and of course Vin Scully.  We received some late issues of "The Sporting News" ( the Baseball Bible), but radio was "king". 

The now 86 year old Scully and his then sidekick, Jerry Doggett, delighted Dodgers' fans from 1956 to 1987.  Vin painted such a picture of the game with his clear expression and command of the language it was a pleasure listening to him despite not being a Dodgers fan.

We developed an almost religious following of the MLB game without watching any games just listening to radio broadcasts.
 

Pedro Ramos of the Cienfuegos Elephants  (cubanbeisbol.com)

Curveball king Camilo Pascual   (twinstrivia.com)

On the Spanish-speaking side, I remember listening to games from "Estadio El Cerro" in Havana, Cuba, between Habana, Almendares,
Cienfuegos and Marianao.  Games were called by Rafael "Felo" Ramirez and Cuco Conde on Radio CMQ.  This was the era of Camilo Pascual, Pedro Ramos, Tony "Haitiano" Gonzalez and Leonardo Cardenas among many others including imports like Rocky Nelson that made this the strongest Caribbean winter league.
With the Cuban "diaspora" Felo Ramirez became a Latin American broadcaster trekking through Puerto Rico, Venezuela, Nicaragua, etc. becoming the best of his craft in Spanish.  A Ford Frick Award winner in 2001 with a plaque in Cooperstown, the 93 year old Ramirez continues to do games for the Miami Marlins in 2014.

Felo Ramirez of the Miami Marlins  (palabranueva.net)

Frequent World Series meetings between the Brooklyn Dodgers and New York Yankees in the 1950's were transmitted by the Gillette Cavalcade of Sports (Cabalgata Deportiva Gillette) by legendary Buck Canel, Ford Frick Award winner in 1985, and Felo Ramirez in Spanish for Latin America.  This was the era of Mickey Mantle, Duke Snider, Yogi Berra, Roy Campanella, etc.  This was the "Golden Age" of radio broadcasts to Spanish- speaking countries. Current ESPN Spanish broadcasts leave a lot to be desired.  

Organizations have to be careful choosing their broadcast teams.  There are quite a few sub-standard teams out there.  Some believe the more you talk the better it is.  Au contraire, measured talk with relevant information is music to the ears. 

Radio has lost its position but back then it was everything and played a vital role in spreading the great game.  Like good wine, Vin Scully and Felo Ramirez are still going strong.  Two fine gentlemen of the "National Pastime" and two great "radio voices".

AGE OF K

The great game of baseball has seen many changes during the last 50 years.  Change is a constant and makes the game more dynamic.  Fifty years is a nice slice of the pastime ( 50 of 139 years = 36%).  Let's take a quick look at offense and run production from then until now.  Remarkably, the more the game has changed since 1964 the more the results remain the same with one big exception.

Some of the significant changes to affect run production have been: expansion, the designated hitter, the pitcher's mound and the strike zone, PEDs (Performance Enhancing Drugs), the ballparks and  sabermetrics to name the most prominent.   It has not been a smooth line but a lot of peaks and valleys that have brought us to the low run-scoring environment we have today.

Roberto Clemente led MLB with .339 avg in 1964  (sportscube.com)

Willie Mays was the best player in 1964  (villagevoice.com)

Let's put 1964 in context.  The Saint Louis Cardinals beat the New York Yankees in the World Series 4 games to 3.  There were 20 teams in MLB, 10 in each league and no playoffs.  MLB played from 1901 to 1960 with 16 teams, 8 in each league.  In 1961 two teams were added to the American League ( Los Angeles Angels and the Washington Senators).  The original Senators moved from Washington to Minnesota after the 1960 season and they were replaced in 1961.  The National League added two teams in 1962, the New York Mets and the Houston Colt .45's.  So 1964 finds us in the early years of expansion.  Roberto Clemente led the NL with .339 average and Tony Oliva the AL with .323.  Harmon Killebrew (49) and Willie Mays (47) led their leagues in HR's.  Ken Boyer of the Cardinals and Brooks Robinson of the Orioles were league MVP's.  Willie Mays had the highest WAR in baseball (11.1) making him the best player in the game, the second best was Ron Santo of the Cubs with a distant 8.9.  Hall of Famer, Nellie Fox, almost at the end of his career with Houston struck out 13 times in 502 plate appearances.  He finished his career with 216 total strikeouts in 10,351 trips to the plate.  He never struck out more than 18 times in any season.  On the pitching side, Dean Chance of the Angels was the Cy Young winner ( only 1 for the 2 leagues ) with a 20-9 and 1.65 ERA with 11 shotouts in 278 IP.  Don Drysdale led the Majors with 321 innings pitched and had 21 complete games.  Juan Marichal went 21-8 with 22 complete games.  Dick "The Monster" Radatz of the Red Sox led MLB with 29 saves appearing in 79 games with 157 IP and 181 strikeouts all in relief.  The hard throwing RHP was one of the precursors of today's flame throwers.  Baseball Reference's Defensive WAR has White Sox SS Ron Hansen, who played winter baseball in Nicaragua with the Boer Indians, as the best defensive player in MLB with 4.0 WAR.

Dean Chance Cy Young winner in 1964  (zimbio.com)

Don Drysdale led MLB with 321 IP in 1964   (zimbio.com)

1968, "The Year of the Pitcher" was right around the corner. Denny McClain was 31-6 and Bob Gibson had a 1.12 ERA  with 28 complete games and 13 shotouts. 1969 saw a lowering of the mound and a tightening of the strike zone to help the offense. The Designated Hitter appeared in the AL in 1973 to help offense. The PEDs explosion and demise and the rise of Sabermetrics to complement traditional baseball knowledge have all had their impact on the game.  New ballparks and the greater influx of Asian and Latin players have made their mark.  The great game just keeps rolling along.

Juan Marichal was 21-8 with 22 complete games in 1964 (zimbio.com)

Dick Radatz with 29 saves and 157 IP 181 K's in relief  (fenwayparkdiaries)

Here are some vital statistics  comparing 1964 to 2014:
                 R/G     HR/G    AVG    W            K
1964        4.04       .85      .250     2.96        5.91
2014        4.11       .88      .252     2.95        7.72                                 
% change  1.7       3.5      .01       .01          30.6

With all the changes the last 50 years, the numbers are pretty similar.  It looks like normal year to year variation except for the last column where the strikeout rate has skyrocketed.  Strikeouts were looked at more negatively in 1964 from the hitters standpoint.  Today's free swinging hitters and higher velocity starters and bullpen make this possible.  All parameters are about the same except for the K rate.  28% of games were completed in 1964 and only 2 % today leading to much different pitcher usage patterns.  
                                 %IP     K/G    W/G      ERA
1964      Starters       74.0      5.8     2.8         3.58
              Relievers    26.0      6.4     3.4         3.57

2014      Starters       67.0      7.4     2.8         3.90
              Relievers    33.0      8.5     3.4         3.57

In 1964 not much difference between starters and relievers ERA.  Today's relievers have the same ERA as the 1964 group pitching more innings and striking out more hitters.  The biggest difference is in today's starters who have a higher ERA.  Could it be the effect of the lesser quality of the 5th starter compared to the 4 man rotations of the past?  Or something else?  Notice the identical walks/game for both groups over time.

MLB league wide fielding percentage in 1964 was .977.  Today it is .984 ( this is the 25th consecutive year at .980 or better).  This fielding % applied to 1964 would have resulted in 876 less total errors ( .27 less error/game).  The base stealing success rate today is 73% compared to around 62% in 1964.