MIAMI MARLINS 2014

The up and down Florida/Miami Marlins are coming off the worst three year period  in their 21 year history with 3 consecutive 90 and more loss seasons (90 in 2011, 92 in 2012 and 100 in 2013) and  3 respective last place finishes.  Marlins Park was inaugurated in 2012, the newest baseball facility with a retractable roof that cost 515 million and a seating capacity of 37,000.  The team shelled out a franchise high 107.6 million while drawing 27,401 fans per game.  After a disappointing season ownership dismantled the team again reducing payroll to 24.7 million and losing almost 8000 fans per game down to 19,504 ( a 29% drop) in 2013.  2014 payroll is pegged at 42.5 million.

Marlins Park in Little Havana  (wikipedia.org)

Despite this bleak scenario at the big league level, the scouting and development program combined with the acquisition of young talent in the last fire sale have the club in a position to develop very good pitching depth, the foundation of winning teams.  The near future could be very good.  The 2013 Marlins were offensively challenged and were  last in baseball posting a negative rating (-.7WAR) little worst than replacement  sporting a .231 batting average and the only Major League club with less than 100 HR (95).  The pitching saved face for the team with a 3.71 ERA which was 7th of 15 NL teams and a 14.1 WAR.  Fangraphs says Miami defensively was only better than the Cardinals and Phillies in the NL while the standard defensive metrics have them at .986 fielding % with 88 errors which is not bad.  The take away here is they were little below average on defense.  

Miami "upgraded" with four infield free agents during the off-season:
                                              AGE     YRS/AMOUNT
Jarrod Saltalamacchia   C       28        3/21.0 million
Garrett Jones                 1B     32        2/7.8   million
Rafael Furcal                 2B     36        1/3.0   million
Casey McGeehee          3B     31        1/1.1   million

Saltalamacchia is the only established regular, the others are trying to reestablish themselves and are stopgap measures.  Furcal missed all of 2013 with an elbow injury and his last full year in  2012 in Saint Louis  had a .8 WAR and is 36 years young.  Is there anything left in the tank?  McGeehee is coming over from Japan (.289/.371/.512) with 27 HR.  His last stateside action in 2011 and 2012 with Milwaukee and the Yankees in around 1000 plate appearances produced a -.1WAR.  His best year was 2010 with a 2.8 WAR (23 HR and 104 RBI) and then he disappeared off the map.  Garrett Jones has good power but his 2013 with the Pirates produced a -.2 WAR and 1.4 in 2012 in 515 PA.  These are all ugly numbers but there is opportunity for them to step up and put careers back on track.  The only surviving IF starter is SS Adeiny Hechavarria.  The 24 year old Cuban was negative across the board with a -1.9 WAR, below replacement level.  He has a reputation as a good defensive SS but the metrics say he is below average with a bad bat and poor baserunning skills (11 stolen bases 10 caught stealing).  If he is not going to hit his defense needs to improve a lot.
                              AGE     IP          W-L     ERA    WAR
Jose Fernandez       21     172.2       12-6      2.19       4.2
Nathan Eovaldi        23     106.1         4-6      3.39       1.5
Henderson Alvarez   23    102.2         5-6      3.59       1.9
Jacob Turner           22     118.0         3-8      3.74       0.3
Brad Hand                22      20.2         1-1      3.05       0.1
Tom Koehler            27     143.0        5-10     4.41        0.6

The 2014 rotation is very young with a lot of upside.  The improvement of young pitchers doesn't follow a linear progression and can be bumpy with a high attrition rate.  The starters need to log around 900 IP total, about 250 more than last year, to keep pitching coach Chuck Hernandez happy.  Jose Fernandez at 21 is the leader of the staff but this rotation could benefit  from a good veteran starter that could mentor and provide pitching savvy.  An area for improvement are the bases on balls.  The 526 BB allowed were 14 of 15 in the NL only ahead of the Chicago Cubs with 540. Division rivals like the Nationals (405 BB), Braves (409 BB) and Mets (458 BB) had much better numbers.

Jose Fernandez vs the Cardinals  (usatoday.com)

The bullpen with side-arming Steve Cishek (69 IP 4-6 2.33 ERA and 34 saves in 36 tries) is backed up by power arms like AJ Ramos (80 IP 3-4 3.15 ERA), Mike Dunn (67.2 IP 3-4 2.66 ERA), Dan Jennings (40.2 IP 2-4 3.76 ERA), Arquimedes Caminero ( 13 IP 0-0 2.77 ERA) and the additions of hard throwing Carter Capps, Henry Rodriguez and Carlos Marmol the ex Cubs closer and also Chris Hatcher who has looked very good this spring.  The ones that don't make the bullpen now will be waiting for the opportunity.  

The outfield corps is one of the youngest in baseball with a lot of talent.
                                AGE    PA      AVG/OB/SLUG    HR
Giancarlo Stanton     24      504       .249/.365/.480     24
Marcell  Ozuna         23      291       .265/.303/.389       3
Christian Yelich        22      273       .288/.370/.396      4

This young group totaled 1068 plate appearances last year.  They need to get about 1650 this year (582 more than last year) to see very good results.  Stanton had a down year while Ozuna and Yelich were getting their feet wet.  Yelich stole 10 of 10 and Ozuna 5 of 6.  Waiting in the wings is toolsy prospect Jake Marisnick, also having a good spring.  Veteran Reed Johnson and Brian Bogusevic round out the OF. 

Power hitting Giancarlo Stanton  (cbssports.com)

This team should be a lot better than last year and maybe 80 wins or even .500 baseball is a possibility.  They could climb over the Mets and Phillies for 3rd place.  Most experts consider them for another last place finish with about 70 wins.  The Marlins  have a strong rotation and bullpen, a quickly improving OF and a questionable infield.

The star power in Miami comes from 21 year old Jose Fernandez and 24 year old Giancarlo Stanton whose common denominator is power, from the pitching mound and the batter's box.  Two of the very best young players in the Major Leagues.

VERY GOOD OR ELITE?

Stephen Strasburg had a great debut on June 8, 2010 against the Pittsburgh Pirates striking out fourteen with zero walks in 7 IP.  Since then he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2011 and had bone chips removed from his elbow after the 2013 season.  The 25 year old RHP with the big fastball (95-97 mph), the great curveball and change has been very good but maybe not where he should be.

Stephen Strasburg vs Cardinals   (zimbio.com)

               IP          K/9       W/9       ERA        WAR
2010       68          12.18     2.25      2.91         2.5
2012      159         11.13     2.71      3.16         4.1
2013      183           9.39     2.75      3.00         3.2

Strasburg's K rate has decreased every year,(still a very good rate ) his W rate has inched up and his ERA has remained around 3.00.  According to Fangraphs his WAR took a dive in 2013.   

                 FB VEL     GB%       O-SWING%
2010          97.3          47.8          36.9
2012          95.7          44.2          29.5
2013          95.3          51.5          30.8

While his FB velocity has dropped a couple mph his ground ball rate has shot up indicating more usage of a sinker or two-seamer .  His out of zone swing % has remained constant the last 2 years after a big drop from 2010.  One of the best young power pitchers , Strasburg went 22 starts between August 28, 2012 to July 19, 2013, without a double digit strikeout game.  Seeing Strasburg pitch in 2013 he didn't seem to have the zip or sharpness on his pitches.

Stephen Strasburg   ((baseballreflections.com)

The Nationals pitcher finished the 2013 season stuck at the hip with LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu of the LA Dodgers.  He finished 16th in WAR for NL pitchers with 3.2 , Ryu was 17th with 3.1.  He was tied with Ryu for 8th best ERA at 3.00 among starting pitchers.  No disrespect to Mr Ryu, who I think is a fine pitcher, but Strasburg is better, he just has to go out and do it.  

The performance projection systems are not kind to the 6'4'' RHP  going forward.  Around 160 IP, 10-12 wins and around 3.0-3.5 WAR  and 3.00 ERA for 2014 is conservative.  With age on his side and if healthy he should be on his way to greater achievements.

UNDER THE RADAR - CARLOS GOMEZ

It took a few years, seven to be exact, one with the New York Mets, two with the Minnesota Twins and four with the Milwaukee Brewers for Carlos Gomez to finally arrive as a bona fide major league player.  Fast as the wind, a great defensive player with a strong and accurate arm, the hit tool with some power caught up to show us one of the most exciting players in MLB in 2013.

Carlos Gomez running the bases 

Gomez, 28, a typical late bloomer put up a 7.6 fWAR ( .284/.338/.506 line with 24 HR and 40 SB).  tying him with Miguel Cabrera for 4th place in MLB only behind Mike Trout (10.4) Andrew McCutchen (8.2) and Josh Donaldson with 7.7 .His 38 DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) were second only to Andrelton Simmons (41) as the best defensive player in baseball.  John Dewan's advanced defensive metrics Fielding Bible named Gomez the best defensive CF in baseball.  He was the only major leaguer with 40 stolen bases and 20+HR in 2013.  86% success rate (77 SB in 90 attempts the last two years) adds to his value.

Carlos Gomez robbing a home run  

Going forward, Carlos Gomez, should surpass his 4-5 WAR projection.  While his O-Swing % has remained around 36% his Z-Swing % jumped from 64 and 67% in 2010 and 2011 to 75-76% the last two years showing he was more aggressive in the strike zone.  His walk rate is low, 6.3% and his K rate is high (24.7%) compared to league average (19.9%).  Lowering his whiff rate could increase his value.  Carlos Gomez signed a team friendly extension (3/24million) that will pay him 7.0 million in 2014, 8.0 million in 2015 and 9.0 million in 2016.  At around 5 WAR/season he is an absolute steal.

MR. PUIG

LA Dodgers fans have taken to some charismatic foreign star players awarding them celebrity status and producing the "Fernandomania" and "Nomomania" phenomenoms.  Yasiel Puig is fanning the flames of "Puigmania".  The rarely seen, high voltage debut of the 23 year old Cuban outfielder was spectacular to watch.
His unsustainable first month was followed by a cooling off period that nevertheless produced a great year with enormous expectations for the future.

Yasiel Puig HR    (feelinkindablue.com)

The unpredictable Yasiel Puig is a mega talent that has cornered the market on "tools" that seem to be at a higher level than most "five tool" players.  Transforming these to effective skills and knowing how and when to use them can take Puig to the doors of greatness as a player, maybe almost unique.  The same qualities that endear him to fans, his all out and reckless style of play might be his achilles heel.  My personal feeling is that Puig won't have a long career, I hope I am wrong.  With all the bounty of talent comes a lot of risk.  His off the field problems, his difficult and abrasive temperament on the field needs to be under control and not drive his manager and teammates nuts.

Yoenis Cespedes and Yasiel Puig

Yasiel has not played a lot of baseball.  Contrary to his Cienfuegos teammate in Cuba, Jose Abreu, who debuts with the Chisox this year and another compatriot who is a Dodger rookie this year, Alexander Guerrero.

NAME                       AGE      SEASONS CUBA   PLATE APP
Yasiel Puig                   23          2  (Cienfuegos)             587
Jose Abreu                   27        10 (Cienfuegos)            3183
Alexander Guerrero       27         8   (Las Tunas)            2262
Yoenis Cespedes          28         8   (Granma)                3123

Puig is a baby compared to these seasoned Cuban League players in regards to seasons and plate appearances.  He is learning on the fly and there must be a lot of patience, but how much?  A lot of his mistakes are due to inexperience.
 

Yasiel Puig on defense   (ibtimes)

The RF's whirlwind 2013 season saw him post great offensive numbers (.319/.391/.534), good defense (10 DRS) and spotty baserunning ( -4.2 BsR) according to Fangraphs (4.0 WAR).  He showed solid splits, .312 vs RHP, .342 vs LHP, .360 at home, .284 away, .315 at night and .333 during the day.  If healthy and logging 600 PA a 5-6 WAR is within his reach and maybe his first All Star game.  Is a talent like Puig immune to the sophomore jinx?  Pull up a chair and let's find out.. 

BASEBALL CATHEDRALS

The MLB landscape has changed a lot during the last 20-25 years.  Most of the changes are positive and enhance the game.  Some of the things I personally dislike are the cream pies and Gatorade dunks during interviews, the chasing, pulling and tearing of uniforms after a walk off hit and to a lesser degree the state of the uniforms.  The old look unis with matching color caps and stockings was pretty neat and had a very professional look.  Somehow today, there seems to be less professionalism in that sense.

An area of vast improvement has been the rolling out of new ballparks and stadiums with natural grass surface replacing the old multipurpose artificial turf cookie cutter stadiums that have become obsolete for baseball.  Only 2 ballparks remain with artificial turf, Rogers Center in Toronto and Tropicana Field in Tampa Bay.  Even the new generation artificial turf seems more palatable than the older versions.  Whenever Tampa Bay gets a new ballpark they will  be using natural grass surface.  The new Atlanta Braves Stadium to open in 2017 will also sport natural grass. 

PNC Park   Pittsburgh

Busch Stadium   Saint Louis

Teams changing from synthetic to natural grass last 20 years:
NAME                  TEAM                NAME/YR
Riverfront             Cincinnati          Great American Ballpark 2003
Three Rivers         Pittsburgh          PNC Park  2001
Busch Stadium      Saint Louis        Busch Stadium   2006
Olympic Stadium  Montreal            Nationals Park   2008
Veterans Stadium  Philadelphia      Citizens Bank Park   2004
Royals Stadium     Kansas  City      Kauffman Stadium   1995
Metrodome           Minnesota          Target Field   2010
Astrodome            Houston              Minute Maid Park   2000
Kingdome             Seattle                 Safeco Field   1999

Chase Field   Phoenix

Marlins Park   Miami

Even the retractable roof stadiums now have natural grass with the exception of Toronto.  These are:  Minute Maid Park (2000),  Safeco Field (1999), Chase Field (1998), Miller Park (2001) and Marlins Park (2012).

AT&T Park   San Francisco

Yankee Stadium   New York

Some of the great new ballparks besides the above mentioned  include:  AT&T Park in San Francisco (2000), Citi Field in New York (2009), Yankee Stadium in New York (2009), Comerica Park in Detroit (2000) and Petco Park in San Diego (2004).

Dodger Stadium   Los Angeles

Wrigley Field   Chicago

The older parks have seen renovations and facelifts that keep them beautiful.  Here is a,list with their inauguration dates:
Kauffman Stadium (1973), Angels Stadium (1966), Oakland Coliseum (1966), Dodger Stadium (1962), Wrigley Field (1914) and Fenway Park (1912).

Consider the excellent spring training facilities that serve the Grapefruit and Cactus Leagues and we can see this is a great time for ballparks.  We are fortunate to enjoy the great National Pastime in these green cathedrals of baseball.

SHORTSTOP PIPELINE

Latin American baseball players are flourishing in MLB.  From 8.9% in 1960 to 26.9% in 2012, almost 3 out of every 10 major leaguer comes from south of the border.  Of MLB's top 100 prospects 29% are latinos.  With this bonanza of  foreign talent there is a major supply of big league SS's.  Entering the 2014 season 20 of 30 (67%) MLB SS positions are filled by latin players.  There are 7 Dominicans  (Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, Jean Segura, Jhonny Peralta, Erick Aybar, Starlin Castro and Pedro Florimon),  four Venezuelans (Alcides Escobar, Elvis Andrus, Marwin Gonzalez and Asdrubal Cabrera), four Cubans ( Yunel Escobar, Alexei Ramirez, Jose Iglesias and Adeiny Hechavarria), three Netherland Antilles (Xander Bogaerts, Didi Gregorius and Andrelton Simmons), one Nicaraguan (Everth Cabrera) and one Panamanian (Ruben Tejada).  Every MLB division has at least 3 latino SS and the AL Central is 5 for 5.

The top 5 latino SS's according to fWAR for 2013 were:  1.  Hanley 
Ramirez (5.1 WAR)  2.  Andrelton Simmons (4.7 WAR)  3.  Yunel Escobar (3.9 WAR)  4.  Jhonny Peralta (3.6 WAR)  5.  Jean Segura (3.4 WAR).  According to the same metric the worst MLB SS was Adeiny Hechavarria of the Florida Marlins with a -1.9 WAR, showing negative offensive and defensive numbers. 

Hanley Ramirez  LA Dodgers   (highheatstats.com)

Andrelton Simmons Atlanta Braves   ( gammonsdaily.com)

This predominance is in line with names from the past like Leonardo Cardenas, Zoilo Versalles, Dagoberto Campaneris, Alfonso Carrasquel, Luis Aparicio, David Concepcion, Omar Vizquel, Tony Fernandez, Alfredo Griffin, Rafael Ramirez, among the most recognizable.  Now more than ever there seems to be a direct pipeline from Latinoamerica to the Major Leagues. 

Bert Campaneris  Oakland A's  (spokeo.com)

Tony Fernandez Toronto Blue Jays  (mlbreports.com)

SHORTSTOP CUBANOS

                                                                                                                                                                                          SHORTSTOP CUBANOS

                                                 
Quien es mejor y representa mas valor para su equipo en la MLB, Alexei Ramirez o Yunel Escobar?  Abordemos el tema.  Ramirez acaba de terminar su sexta temporada con los White Sox y Escobar su primero en Tampa Bay y el septimo en las Mayores. 

Numeros de Alexei Ramirez

2013     .693 OPS     86 OPS+  2.3 oWAR   1.1 dWAR   2.6 WAR

2010     .744 OPS     99 OPS+  3.3 oWAR   3.0 dWAR   5.5 WAR

Numeros de Yunel Escobar

2013     .698 OPS     97 OPS+  2.7 oWAR   1.4 dWAR   3.3 WAR

2011     .782 OPS   112 OPS+  4.0 oWAR   1.4 dWAR   4.7 WAR

El 2013 muestra a Escobar ligeramente superior segun el sistema WAR y lo ha sido en 5 de los ultimos 6 excepto en 2010 cuando Alexei fue mejor.  El 2010 de Ramirez y el 2011 de Escobar son los mejores de cada uno y sirven de punto de referencia.  Otro dato importante, Alexei recibio 7.0 millones y Yunel 5.0 millones de dolares en 2013.

Los principales sistemas de pronosticos para el 2014 opinan que ambos torpederos cubanos tendran una baja ligera en su performance.  Mientras Yunel Escobar recibira 5.0 millones, Alexei Ramirez subira a 9.5 millones de dolares en el 2014.  Mejor performance a casi la mitad del costo le da mucho valor a Escobar para Tampa Bay.

Numeritos cortesia de Baseball Reference.