Stephen Strasburg had a great debut on June 8, 2010 against the Pittsburgh Pirates striking out fourteen with zero walks in 7 IP. Since then he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2011 and had bone chips removed from his elbow after the 2013 season. The 25 year old RHP with the big fastball (95-97 mph), the great curveball and change has been very good but maybe not where he should be.
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| Stephen Strasburg vs Cardinals (zimbio.com) |
IP K/9 W/9 ERA WAR
2010 68 12.18 2.25 2.91 2.5
2012 159 11.13 2.71 3.16 4.1
2013 183 9.39 2.75 3.00 3.2
Strasburg's K rate has decreased every year,(still a very good rate ) his W rate has inched up and his ERA has remained around 3.00. According to Fangraphs his WAR took a dive in 2013.
FB VEL GB% O-SWING%
2010 97.3 47.8 36.9
2012 95.7 44.2 29.5
2013 95.3 51.5 30.8
While his FB velocity has dropped a couple mph his ground ball rate has shot up indicating more usage of a sinker or two-seamer . His out of zone swing % has remained constant the last 2 years after a big drop from 2010. One of the best young power pitchers , Strasburg went 22 starts between August 28, 2012 to July 19, 2013, without a double digit strikeout game. Seeing Strasburg pitch in 2013 he didn't seem to have the zip or sharpness on his pitches.
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| Stephen Strasburg ((baseballreflections.com) |
The Nationals pitcher finished the 2013 season stuck at the hip with LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu of the LA Dodgers. He finished 16th in WAR for NL pitchers with 3.2 , Ryu was 17th with 3.1. He was tied with Ryu for 8th best ERA at 3.00 among starting pitchers. No disrespect to Mr Ryu, who I think is a fine pitcher, but Strasburg is better, he just has to go out and do it.
The performance projection systems are not kind to the 6'4'' RHP going forward. Around 160 IP, 10-12 wins and around 3.0-3.5 WAR and 3.00 ERA for 2014 is conservative. With age on his side and if healthy he should be on his way to greater achievements.
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