SERIE DEL CARIBE

From February 2-8, the Serie del Caribe (Caribbean Series) will be played in host country Puerto Rico at Hiram Bithorn Stadium.  The four winter league champions from Venezuela, Mexico, Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico will be joined by the Cuban League Serie Nacional champion to play the 57th edition of this important regional baseball tournament.  It's "fiesta time" for baseball fans in these countries.  For baseball lovers all over, a good quality tournament in February is a real treat.

Recent tournaments have seen Mexico, once considered the "Cinderella", winning 3 of the last 4 ( 2011, 2012 and 2014) with Dominican Republic the champ in 2013.  Last year's Series featured very few Major League players with champion Mexico not having any current major leaguers on their roster.  Teams like Venezuela and Dominican Republic don't bulk up with star power so it's not an elite tournament but still very competitive.  Last year the Cuban entry, Villa Clara, seemed over matched at times. This year the Pinar del Rio team has 17 reinforcements to make it look like the Cuban National Team.

Some time ago the 'Serie del Caribe" went through tough financial times.  In 1990 and 1991 it was played in Miami.  The 1990 series was organized by Rick Horrow, a sports venture CEO, and played at the Orange Bowl, resulting in a complete disaster.  The playing field had about a 270 foot left field and the playing surface was in bad shape.  Edgar Martinez, Omar Vizquel, Geronimo Berrroa, Moises Alou were some of the stars that participated.  Felipe Alou led the Dominican team to victory.  The 1991 version of the series was played at Bobby Maduro Stadium and changed it's name to Winterball 1.  Though better than 1990, it still was not a success.  We saw players like Geronimo Berroa, Henry Rodriguez, Melido Perez , Luis Gonzalez and Andujar Cedeño.  The Dominicans also won this time under manager John Roseboro.  Geronimo Berroa was the MVP both years.  I attended all the games both years and while being impressed with the quality of some players, I was very disappointed with the organization and marketing of the event.  Something as important as this Series deserved much better.
 

Mays, Clemente, Buster Clarkson, Bob Thurman, George Crowe  Santurce 1955

There was a time when a lot of big name players took part in these tournaments. Hall of Famers,Willie Mays and Roberto Clemente played in the same outfield for the "Cangrejeros de Santurce" in 1955 at the Universitario de Caracas in Venezuela where they won the Series.  Mays started slow (0 for 13) but then caught fire going 11 for 13 to make the All Star team. The 24 year old Mays was coming off a year of .345 average with 41 HR's and 110 RBI's for the New York Giants in 1954.  Clemente, 20 years old at the time hit a modest .267 and did not make the series All Star team.  He was just establishing himself.  The Series MVP was SS Don Zimmer who hit 3 HR's.  The recently passed Zimmer was on his way to becoming one of the great baseball persons of our time.  Affectionately known as "Popeye", Zimmer was player, field coach, manager and bench coach.  He never drew a paycheck in his life that was not baseball related spanning 65 years.

The great Willie Mays homering at the Universitario de Caracas in 1955  (gettyimages)

The 1995 Senadores de San Juan that represented Puerto Rico in the 95 Series at Hiram Bithorn Stadium is the best collection of
baseball talent to put foot on a Caribbean Series diamond.  The all native Puerto Rican "Dream Team", demolished the opposition outscoring them 49-15 and going undefeated. Rey Sanchez, the regular season batting champion, hit 9th on this star-studded team.  Carlos Delgado C, Carmelo Martinez IB, Roberto Alomar 2B, Carlos Baerga 3B, Rey Sanchez SS, Juan "Igor" Gonzalez LF, Bernie Williams CF, Ruben Sierra RF and Edgar Martinez DH formed this fearsome 9.  Twenty years ago they made Puerto Rico very proud.  This group of players totaled 36 All Star appearances in the Major Leagues.  Only Carmelo Martinez and Rey Sanchez did not make any All Star team despite being good players.

Alomar, Carmelo, Edgar, Sanchez, Sierra, Baerga, Williams, Gonzalez, Delgado ( Dream Team 1995)

This is the same Hiram Bithorn Stadium where Javy Lopez hit a walk off HR off Omar Ajete of the Cuban National Team in 1993 carrying the Senadores de San Juan to a 4-3 victory.  The Cubans had manhandled amateur opposition and this showed that a different dog was in the fight. 

Miguel Tejada, the Bus Driver.

With today's average annual MLB salary around 3.7 million, there is no incentive for players to participate and for organizations to risk their investment in these tournaments.  Miguel Tejada, is one of the few players, even in his prime that was willing to always participate in the winter league and in this tournament.  Called "pelotero de la patria" he is also known as the "bus driver" for when he found men on base he always took them home.

Two of the young players to keep an eye on are:  Maikel Franco of the Dominican team who should soon be playing in Philadelphia and Javier Baez of Puerto Rico, one of the new wave coming to the Chicago Cubs. Baez has scandalous power but a high swing and miss rate.


 

PROJECTING THE CUBANS 2015

It's difficult to consistently project player performance, but that is what a few smart guys are doing with their "projection systems".  Marcel, ZiPs, Oliver, PECOTA and Steamer are the main systems out there right now.  They're all pretty good with some being a little better at certain things.  We'll use the "Steamer" system for our projections.

The Cuban pipeline continues to move players from the island nation to MLB.  Seems like on a monthly basis players are making the jump across the Florida Straits.  From the major-league ready players like Jose Abreu (6/68M), Yoennis Cespedes (4/36M) and Alexei Ramirez (4/32.5) who have provided good value with their performance and contracts to current high profile newcomers like Yasmany Tomas (6/68.5) and Rusney Castillo (7/72.5),who have benefited from their above predecessors to younger players like Roberto Baldoquin (8.0M), Yoan Lopez (8.25M) and the soon to be signed Yoan Moncada who have entered the International Draft signing for above market bonuses.  Even the almost 30 year old Hector Olivera, a fine second baseman in Cuba has made the jump.  It will be interesting to see how the market reacts to the very talented infielder who was plagued by injuries the last couple years.  In between there are lower level players like 25 year old OF Dian Toscano quietly signing with the Braves (4yrs/6.0M).  With this mixed pool of players, MLB organizations are jumping at the opportunity to sign "the next great Cuban player".  One thing is for sure, a lot of the "cream" has been skimmed off the top of the talent pool in Cuba.

There are 9 established Cuban position players in MLB.  This is what the "Steamer" system projects for them in 2015.  Here's a few comments on players in the table below.
(wRC+ is an estimate of offensive value corrected for ballpark and league.  100 is league average, above is better, below is less than average).

Jose Abreu:  Great 2014 season hitting for power and average.  Some regression expected this year.  Not the "sophomore jinx" but some league adjustments.  Very good approach going to all fields. Needs to pick up his defensive game when on 1st base.  Adam LaRoche is a much better fielder so he might see more time at DH.  In his "prime" years, so good production is expected.

Yasiel Puig robbing Pedro Ciriaco and CF Andre Eithie

Yasiel Puig:  The best Cuban player by projected WAR (5.1).  Right there offensively with Abreu (147 to 143).  Playing under control he can contribute in all aspects of the game.  Improved strike zone judgement in 2014.  Still developing.  Rated 3rd best CF in MLB behind Andrew McCutchen and Mike Trout.  Very strong but not a typical power hitter, strong gap hitter with great speed.  Should develop power with more experience.  Love him or hate him he's always exciting. 

Yasiel Puig bat flip vs Cardinals

Yoennis Cespedes:  A step below Abreu and Puig offensively but with "tools" to help on defense and on the bases.  I expect some defensive regression in Comerica Park.  Should benefit offensively just by watching Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez, two of the very best.  Contract year.  Has not been able to repeat rookie season numbers.  Seems to be too pull-conscious most of the time.

Leonys Martin:  A below average hitter (93) but a very good defensive game and excellent base running.  If offense improves to average or better can be a very good player.  Needs to improve his OBP.  In his prime, so improvement is expected.

Alexei Ramirez:  Ramirez had a bounce-back season, but at 33 and at SS should start to slip some more.  A steady defender and good base running the last few years have increased his value.  Rated 8th best SS in MLB for 2014.  On paper the Chisox look like a solid team this year.  His contributions will be very important.

Adeiny Hechavarria:  Controversial.  Loved by the scouts and the Marlins but not well liked by the Sabermetric community.  Numbers similar to Jose Iglesias but Iglesias considered a much better defensive player.  Adeiny makes spectacular plays but he must also make all the routine plays and not lose concentration on defense.  Still young with lot of room for improvement.

Yunel Escobar:  Escobar really tanked in 2014.  Did not hit and stunk defensively contributing to negative numbers.  Might bounce back this year.  Until last year he had the edge on Alexei as the better SS.  With bad numbers and a "basket case" in the locker room, Escobar, at 32 is in a dangerous phase of his career.

Jose Iglesias:  Lost all of 2014 to injuries but with a favorable impression from 2013, Iglesias is seen as a key to the Tigers infield defense.  Makes spectacular plays and all the routine plays.  Doesn't have to hit much to be valuable.  A year off shouldn't affect the 25 yr old SS.  Should form a very good keystone combo with Ian Kinsler.

Jose Iglesias turning two with Dustin Pedroia

Dayan Viciedo:  Will lose playing time this year to Melky Cabrera, Adam Eaton and Avisail Garcia in the Chisox outfield.  Hit .213 the 2nd half of 2014 after starting April with .348.  Was very bad defensively.  Might be exiting Chicago soon.  Young enough to catch on somewhere else.  Has good power.  

NAME	AGE	AVG-HR-RBI	OBP-SLG	wRC+	WAR	2015 SAL
Jose Abreu	28	.283/34/98	.355/.530	143	3.7	7.0
Yasiel Puig	24	.294/22/74	.373/.495	147	5.1	4.5
Yoennis Cespedes	29	.268/24/86	.319/.467	118	3.1	10.5
Leonys Martin	27	.264/10/56	.318/.387	93	2.3	3.8
Alexei Ramirez	33	.265/11/63	.300/.379	87	2.3	10.0
Adeiny Hechavarria	26	.248/4/48	.288/.335	82	0.6	0.6
Yunel Escobar	32	.258/7/39	.324/.351	96	1.8	5.0
Jose Iglesias	25	.257/5/45	.304/.341	81	1.5	0.6
Dayan Viciedo	26	.251/9/28	.298/.424	103	0.2	2.8

WHAT YOU SEE IS WHAT YOU GET?

Most teams in Major League Baseball have a "baseball analytics" department in charge of crunching data to find new ways to improve baseball decision making.  The traditional "scouts" perform the eye test and the data analysis guys run the numbers and interpret results.  The correct balance and meshing of both disciplines should produce the best results.

Fangraphs and Baseball Reference, are two of the groups processing data and evaluating players quantifying the different aspects of the game like hitting, pitching, fielding and running.  The WAR metric ( Wins Above Replacement) is intended to capture the total value of the player and put it in a number.  It is not perfect but it is the best we have now.  I am sure in the near future it will be fine-tuned some more.  WAR will vary for each group due to differences in the calculations.  There is an effort to streamline the methodologies to arrive at more consistent results.

Yoenis Cespedes, the 29 year old LF for the Boston Red Sox, has been in MLB since 2012.  He is a "toolsy" player winning 2 HR Derbies and made a couple of big fly throws to put runners out at home in 2014.  He's been all across the news and very visible with the "wow' factor.  Cespedes is a very good player whose main asset is power.  His defense improved a lot in 2014.  He passes the eye test very well.  Some sports media people think Cespedes is an excellent power hitter because of the Derbies and his batting practice exploits. Sorry, his power has translated well but nothing exceptional. 

Yoenis Cespedes homering in Oakland

Cuban compatriot, 26 year old Leonys Martin, CF of the Texas Rangers is a very different type of player and much less recognized.  A below average hitter, Martin usually hits near the bottom of the Rangers batting order and right now is mainly a defense and speed guy at a premium defensive position. 

Leonys Martin in Arlington.

The following table compares the 2013 and 2014 years for Cespedes and Martin.  2012 is not included because of few at bats for Martin:

NAME	YEAR	fWAR	bWAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR-- RBI	SB - CS
Yoenis Cespedes	2013	2.2	1.6	.240/.294/.442	26-80	7 - 7
	2014	3.4	4.1	.260/.301/.450	22-100	7 - 2
TOTAL WAR		5.6	5.7
Leonys Martin	2013	2.8	3.1	.260/.313/.385	8-49	36 - 9
	2014	3.5	4.6	.274/.325/.364	7-40	31 - 12
TOTAL WAR		6.3	7.7

Fangraphs ( fWAR) and Baseball Reference (bWAR) although they differ in totals both point to Martin as the player with more value.  Cespedes' low batting average and OBP% pull down his offensive numbers despite the power. His defense in 2014 was the 3rd best in MLB only behind Alex Gordon and Christian Yelich, with a 4.5 defensive value and 12 Defensive Runs Saved.  

Leonys Martin providing stellar defense in CF

Martin has a better BA, OBP% and much less power.  He's the 4th best CF in 2014 with a 13.4 value and 15 Defensive Runs Saved only behind defensive whiz Juan Lagares at the premium CF position.  Besides the stellar defense he's racked up 67 stolen bases the last 2 years at a 76% success rate.  If he can pull his offense up to league average he can add even more value.  About half of Martin's value is in his defense and base running while Cespedes is mainly an offensive player.  

Cespedes pulled in about 20 million for both years, while Martin took in about 7 million.  They say there is a premium on right-handed power hitters, so Yoenis Cespedes should get a nice contract after 2015.  Martin will keep on providing very good value for his team and be relatively ignored.  The takeaway here is that the much lesser known Martin according to the new metrics provides a little more value than the well regarded Cespedes at about one third of the cost.  Of  importance also is how a player fits into the needs of a particular team.

OFF SEASON BASEBALL

Coming up this week we'll have some international baseball action.  A Group of MLB players managed by John Farrell of the Boston Red Sox, will tour Japan for a 7 game series ( 2 exhibitions and 5 games against Samurai Japan).  The formerly called, Japan All Stars are now National Team "Samurai Japan".  This 2014 edition, after an 8 year pause, will feature All Stars like Robinson Cano, Evan Longoria and batting champs Jose Altuve, Justin Morneau and some solid Japanese talent like fireballer Shohei Otani, Seiichi Uchikawa, Yuki Yanagita, Sho Nakata, Kenta Maeda and Hayato Sakamoto. Most of these Japanese players have WBC experience.  The Americans have dominated these series and 2014 should be no different.  Japan has an edge in its meticulous preparation and we'll see how this translates into wins.  All in all, a good series with some nice talent on display. There is a Latin flavor on the MLB team with 10 of 29 players (34%).  Four Dominicans and four Venezuelans lead this group.  Overall, this is a team with pretty good position players and very questionable pitching.  Matt Shoemaker and Hisashi Iwakuma are the best starting pitchers with Mark Melancon and Tommy Hunter the 2 best relievers.

20 year old Shohei Otani, the next Japan pitching star?  (stripealley.com)

Starting Saturday in Veracruz, Mexico, the 22nd Central American and Caribbean Games will include a baseball tournament with 8 teams (Cuba, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Venezuela, Panama, Nicaragua, Mexico and Guatemala?).  Didn't really know they played baseball in Guatemala.  Teams like Dominican, Puerto Rico, Venezuela and Mexico that have Winter Leagues will be sending low level squads to compete.  Cuba on the other hand, is sending their "A" team with WBC and Japan League experience.  Seems like a little overkill or trying to kill a mosquito with a cannon.  It could have been a great opportunity for the Cuban Baseball Federation to send a young manager with mostly good young players to cut their teeth in low level international competition.  Wins for Cuba have been few and far between recently, so this could be the motivation.  The Cuban players have nothing to do with the present debacle.  The sole fault rests with this sport governing body.  They took them from the top of the amateur baseball world to the present situation in a jiffy. Changes at the international level and limited vision caused the Cuban baseball bubble to burst and put them in the box they are now trying to crawl out.  The talent of the Cuban player is undeniable despite some rough edges.  Exposure to better baseball always results in better players.


MLB Network, the baseball channel, has done a good job of promoting baseball.  They can improve programming, especially this time of year, with some live games from the Dominican Republic.  This top echelon winter league offers very good games with a peek at young foreign and native prospects and minor leaguers trying to sharpen their skills for an opportunity at the "Big Show".  Later in the season some established Major Leaguers can be seen helping teams classify for the play-offs.  This baseball hotbed offers a ready made product for MLB Network.

Padres C Yasmani Grandal displaying power with Toros del Este in DR

GOOD BAD AND UGLY

Recently, Fangraphs published a couple articles on the best defensive players at each position in the Major Leagues.  Applying new methodology they are trying to quantify the defensive part of the game and produce something besides the eye test and the traditional errors and fielding percentage. It's far from perfect now, but a step in the right direction and should improve over time. Two defensive metrics, (UZR- Ultimate Zone Rating and DRS- Defensive Runs Saved) are used as a base for the calculations.  For catchers, it's a little bit different.

Sometimes these ratings coincide with the Gold Glove given out by MLB for the best defensive players, sometimes they don't. The list presents the top 3 and bottom 3 at each position.  I'll just make a few comments based on this information.

CF Juan Lagares  best defensive player in MLB 2014

The top 3 defensive players with the highest scores in the AL belong to the Kansas City Royals.  Outfielders Jarrod Dyson (23.4), Alex Gordon (18.9) and Lorenzo Cain ( 16.7) all roam the spacious outfield at Kauffman Stadium.  We saw how great they are in the recently finalized post season.  The top rated defensive player in all of baseball was CF Juan Lagares of the New York Mets with 24.7.  The 25 year old Dominican is a super defensive player.  

Defensive whiz Juan Lagares at Citi Field.

The best defensive infielder was Andrelton Simmons, SS of the Atlanta Braves with 17.0.  The 25 year old native from Curacao was the best overall defender in MLB last year, so the consistency is there.  3B Chase Headley of SD Padres and NY Yankees did very well in 2nd place with 15.7 and 2B Dustin Pedroia of the Bosox was 3rd with 14.9.  

Andrelton Simmons with some help from Freddie Freeman

The Miami Marlins had the worst defensive catcher (Jarrod Saltalamacchia ) in MLB with an ugly -29.9, the 2nd worst first baseman  in the NL ( Garrett Jones) with -3.5 and the 2nd worst SS in the NL ( Adeiny Hechavarria) with -4.6.  There is a lot of defensive shakiness on the Marlins. On the other hand, Christian Yelich  was rated the best LF in the NL with 10.9.  Hechavarria, the 25 year old Cuban, passes the eye test and some people ( especially Marlins people) think the advanced defensive metrics doesn't capture his true value and think he is a Gold Glove quality defender despite very poor ratings.  He might be improving but he's still around the bottom.  His fielding percentage went from  .976 to .979, his errors from 15 to 14 and his Defensive Runs Saved remained the same at -3.  The Zone Rating is not kind to Hechavarria, meaning a lot of balls hit in his area are not converted to outs.  This might be due to defensive positioning.

Marlins Adeiny Hechavarria improving but still rating low.

There is a small but growing pool of Cuban players in MLB and a few of them showed up on these lists.  Yoenis Cespedes, has shown improvement his 3 years going from bad in 2012 to average in 2013 to pretty good in 2014. He is now only behind Alex Gordon in LF with 10.1 in the AL.  On the negative side we have SS Yunel Escobar of the Tampa Bay Rays with an ugly -17.3, the worst figures of his career and of his position in MLB this year.  The above mentioned Adeiny Hechavarria with a -4.6 , the 2nd worst mark in the NL only behind Hanley Ramirez of the Dodgers with -10.5.  The Chicago White Sox sport a pair of bad fielders in Jose Abreu ( -7.0) the worst defensive first baseman in MLB and Dayan Viciedo with -12.3, the 3rd worst RF in the AL.

MULTITASKING

Jose Abreu had a great year for the Chicago White Sox.  He broke Ron Kittle's rookie HR record of 35 and finished high on the leaderboard in the main hitting categories in the AL, .317/.383/.581 with 36 HR's and 107 RBI's.  In the process he racked up 14, 18 and 21 game hitting streaks.  The Cuban slugger established himself as an offensive force in the American League.  Fangraphs WAR leaders for first basemen finds him in 3rd place with 5.3 WAR, only behind Anthony Rizzo of the Cubs with 5.6 and Miguel Cabrera of the Tigers with 5.4 WAR.  He lags behind because of his fielding and base running, not because of his hitting.

Jose Abreu first career home run in Colorado.

The overall numbers were great but it was a tale of two seasons for the 27 year old Abreu, hitting .292/.342/.630 in the first half and .350/.435/.513 in the second half showing a very high batting average but a serious drop in power numbers.  He hit 29 HR's before the All Star game and only 7 after the break.  Some say Abreu got tired but Alexei Ramirez and Yoenis Cespedes under similar circumstances finished very strong in their rookie years.  His .350 batting average suggests he wasn't tired.

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ALEXEI RAMIREZ 2008	HR	AVERAGE
FIRST HALF	7	0.312
SECOND HALF	14	0.269
YOENIS CESPEDES 2012
FIRST HALF	9	0.263
SECOND HALF	14	0.311

Jose Abreu has an advanced offensive approach and should keep on hitting for good average and power. I don't think his 2014 season is repeatable because of his very high BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play).  He registered .437 and .439 in July and August when he had his hitting streaks.  His overall .356 BABIP is still very high and very difficult to repeat.  Both, Alexei Ramirez and Yoenis Cespedes had their best offensive seasons in their first year.  I hope Abreu doesn't peak in his first year like Benito Santiago, the Rookie of the Year in 1987 with San Diego who hit .300 and had a rookie and catcher record 34 game hitting streak.  He never approached those numbers the rest of his career.  Abreu might be in for some serious regression in his offensive output.  Some inside info on Abreu shows he hit only .236 on ground balls which he hit little over 45% of the time and .220 on curve balls during the season.  He hit .377 on fly balls.

So what can we expect in the future from Jose Abreu?  The power hitting slugger or the high average hitter.?  To fulfill expectations he has to multitask, hitting for power and average.  To be elite you have to be able to walk and chew gum.

POSTSEASON 2014

The 2014 postseason has been outstanding.  Close and well played games with unlikely heroes.  Often the "little guy" performs well on the big stage and this year is no exception.  Some teams seem to be changing with the weather from the promise of potential to becoming very hard to beat.  The teams with the best records and fat payrolls have exited the scene.

The sooner the manager realizes the postseason is different and a greater sense of urgency is needed in decision making and in-game strategy, probably the more successful he'll be.  We've seen good teams with questionable managerial moves now sitting on the sidelines.  In a short series anything can and will happen.  You can't afford to make many mistakes and especially repeat those mistakes.  In the regular season, what didn't work today may work next week.  You don't have that luxury in the postseason.  When the tide is shifting a quick reaction is needed.

Brad Ausmus had a tough postseason.

Brad Ausmus got burned twice by Joba Chamberlain and Joakim Soria.  The first one was on them, the second one was on Brad Ausmus.  This was a bad move with disastrous results.

Jarrod Dyson of Kansas City stole second base but was called out by over sliding the bag.  It clearly looked like Jonathan Schoop nudged the foot off the base.  Ned Yost thought the call was correct and the tag was proper.  On this play, the least you could do is protest vehemently so the next time this happens you have a chance of getting a questionable call.  Kansas City is so hot, this didn't matter.  But you need to lay the groundwork for the future as the stolen base is a vital part of the Royals game.  A no move with good results.  However, Yost has done some good things by shortening the game depending more on his relievers.

Jarrod Dyson nudged off the bag?

It's more convenient for managers to follow a script or plan for a game.  Sometimes, in the postseason you have to throw in the kitchen sink to win a ball game, which is not the case in the regular season. If your team never has a lead in a close 3 game series, does it mean you'll never use your best reliever (closer) or you'll use him in high leverage situations even if it's not the last inning?  

Ned Yost riding the Kansas City wave

Some managers seem to be using a magic wand with a lot of positive moves while others can't seem to find their way out of a paper bag.  Teams with better personnel keep losing to teams with less talent.  

Buck Showalter  trying to stop the streaking Royals.

There is an element of luck in all of this.  Maybe it's better to be lucky than good. Perhaps the sabermetricians can identify and quantify the luck factor. The Kansas City Royals seem to have all of these elements wrapped up into a nice 6 game winning streak and are on the verge of tying the "Big Red Machine" of 1976 who went 7-0 in the postseason sweeping the Phillies and Yankees.  Buck Showalter of the Orioles is a very good manager. I get the impression he'll need lightning in a bottle or a magic lamp to stop these Royals. Kansas City is inspired and plays the game with enthusiasm and "gusto".  The best of the postseason is yet to come.