Saturday, April 25, 2020
MLB 2019 SOME IMPRESSIONS
The 2019 MLB season is on the verge of producing another HR record hitting year. A few days ago I ran some numbers and looks like the 2019 season will surpass the 2017 record season, and by a lot about 10% more. They'll end up slugging about 500-600 more HR's than the 6105 couple years ago. The previous record broke the total from the "Steroids Era" in 2000. If the players are off "the Juice" now, maybe there's some equivalent "Juice" in the ball combined with other factors. Some games look like Nintendo or Playstation games. Regular "banjo" hitters are hitting double digit HR's. By the way, they'll also set a strikeout record this year, in totals and rate. With so many "Dog Days" now at stadiums all around the country, we'll probably see a dog hit a HR pretty soon. I kinda miss the old game when HR's weren't so cheap. Feels like something is out of whack in baseball on the field. The money is good, though. A real "Millionaires Club".
This weekend MLB is rolling out all white and all black uniforms with nicknames on the back of the jerseys. I think both are very bad ideas. It was so bizarre, I had to tune out of the games. Nicknames? Come on, let's get serious and stop tampering with player uniforms and names Whoever came up with this idea is really not a baseball fan. Probably some PC fellow, living in a basement. The uniform that I most dislike in MLB is the Diamondbacks dark gray road uni. It's horrible, these are a lot worse.
By the way, have you noticed all the chit-chat that occurs in baseball today. When runners reach base they have these long conversations at first, second, third, the SS even comes over sometimes. Enough times they're not even paying attention to the coaches. I think that is excessive fraternizing. Didn't use to be that way. I want to kick this guy's butt, I don't want to talk with them. There's a "social club" atmosphere around the bases. Maybe they're comparing contracts. Fraternize after the games. This is something that is exclusive to baseball now. Even the ladies that play basketball, volleyball and softball don't engage in this type of behavior. Maybe it's the new friendly PC culture in the game.
Friday, October 6, 2017
A TALE OF TWO INFIELDERS
Earlier this year, two promising young infielders were signed to multi-year contracts that will take them through their arbitration years and put them at free agency, when these deals expire. This is a strategy used by some teams to provide financial security for their best young players, avoid arbitration (which can be contentious), and provide some payroll cost control.
Rougned Odor, 23, second baseman for the Texas Rangers, (6yr-49.5M) from 2017-2022 and Jose Ramirez, 25, 2B-3B for the Cleveland Indians (5yr-26M) for 2017-2021 were coming off very good seasons in 2016, that prompted their teams to lock them up.
The 2017 season saw, Jose Ramirez, become an All Star and perhaps the best player on the Central Division champs, Cleveland Indians, while Rougned Odor, had a nightmarish season putting up bad offensive numbers and providing below-average glove work.
wRC+ is a measure of offense adjusted for park and league. 100 is average. Odor was 39% below average while Ramirez came in at 48% above average. He had a negative WAR, while Ramirez accumulated 6.6 which was the 8th best total in MLB. WAR is the total contribution of a player to his team. The Rangers 2B hit 30 HR's but became a one-dimensional player hitting .168 avg on the road and .145 against left-handed pitching. The last 2 years combined, Rougned had a total of 52 walks and 297 K's in 1283 plate appearances, while Ramirez compiled 96 walks and 131 K's in 1263 PA. Ninety percent of his HR's (27 of 30) were to RF.
Rougned Odor, 23, second baseman for the Texas Rangers, (6yr-49.5M) from 2017-2022 and Jose Ramirez, 25, 2B-3B for the Cleveland Indians (5yr-26M) for 2017-2021 were coming off very good seasons in 2016, that prompted their teams to lock them up.
The 2017 season saw, Jose Ramirez, become an All Star and perhaps the best player on the Central Division champs, Cleveland Indians, while Rougned Odor, had a nightmarish season putting up bad offensive numbers and providing below-average glove work.
wRC+ is a measure of offense adjusted for park and league. 100 is average. Odor was 39% below average while Ramirez came in at 48% above average. He had a negative WAR, while Ramirez accumulated 6.6 which was the 8th best total in MLB. WAR is the total contribution of a player to his team. The Rangers 2B hit 30 HR's but became a one-dimensional player hitting .168 avg on the road and .145 against left-handed pitching. The last 2 years combined, Rougned had a total of 52 walks and 297 K's in 1283 plate appearances, while Ramirez compiled 96 walks and 131 K's in 1263 PA. Ninety percent of his HR's (27 of 30) were to RF.
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| All Star Jose Ramirez (zimbio.com |
Rougned Odor, took a couple steps back this year. He needs to clear his head, make adjustments, change his approach at the plate and he can still be a good player. Jose Ramirez, clearly the much better player now, provides his team high-caliber play at 2B, 3B and even SS, while Odor is strictly a second baseman. The Indians have an excellent player with a team-friendly contract while the Rangers have a lot of question marks about their overpaid infielder.
Tuesday, October 3, 2017
THE JUICE GOES ON
The amount of HR's hit this year in MLB totaled 6105, eclipsing the old high of 5693, hit during the height of the "steroids era" in 2000. The HR rate per team per game increased by 7.7%.
MLB also set a record for strikeouts this year with 40,104 K's. Compared to the year 2000 total of 31,356, that represents an increase of 8748 K's. The K-rate jumped from 16.5% in 2000 to 21.6% in 2017, for a skyrocketing increase of 31%.
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| The superb Joey Votto (zimbio.com) |
With the new concept of "launch angle", brought on by the Statcast era, hitters are trying to hit more fly balls, instead of ground balls which are gobbled up by infield shifts. More fly balls and juiced-up baseballs have created an environment that is conducive to long and frequent home runs, surpassing the "steroids era" with the negative side effect of record-setting strikeouts. A lot of good things happen when contact is made. The concept of situational hitting seems almost lost with this generation. Power hitters with a low strikeout rate should be at a premium in today's baseball. It seems as if the "juice" is not gone, it just moved from the players to the baseballs.
Saturday, August 19, 2017
BOOMSTICK TIME
A few years ago, Nelson Cruz, popularized the "boomstick" bat. It was a tribute to his frequent and long home runs. Cruz has been a bona fide slugger with an explosive bat. This season, MLB is seeing a real uptick in the HR rate, to the extent a new record will be set breaking the previous high accomplished during the "steroids era". It looks like "boomstick" time all around baseball with batters hitting more frequent and longer home runs.
In 2000 MLB hitters slugged a total of 5693 home runs which is the actual record for totals and also for HR rate of 1.17 HR/team/game.
The current rate of 1.26 HR/game, projects to a total over 6000, which is the first time this milestone would be achieved. There seems to be more than one "rabbit" in the current baseball.
So what gives? We think "the juice" is on the downswing. Some say the baseball is more "tightly-wound" making it travel farther on contact. MLB has been tinkering with the game for a while now, so is this a random occurrence or by design? Seems like "everybody and their dog" are hitting home runs nowadays.
In 2000 MLB hitters slugged a total of 5693 home runs which is the actual record for totals and also for HR rate of 1.17 HR/team/game.
The current rate of 1.26 HR/game, projects to a total over 6000, which is the first time this milestone would be achieved. There seems to be more than one "rabbit" in the current baseball.
So what gives? We think "the juice" is on the downswing. Some say the baseball is more "tightly-wound" making it travel farther on contact. MLB has been tinkering with the game for a while now, so is this a random occurrence or by design? Seems like "everybody and their dog" are hitting home runs nowadays.
Friday, April 10, 2015
YANKEE PRIDE?
The New York Yankees could be in danger of missing the playoffs for the third straight year. The first time this would happen since 1995. The signature franchise of MLB, often likened to an "empire" is not in a good place. Lackluster performance on the field and a lukewarm front office doesn't fit the "Yankee Tradition" of winning and exhibiting strong star power.
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| New York Yankees GM Brian Cashman (cbslocal.com) |
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| Mark Teixeira NY Yankees first baseman (nbcsports.com) |
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| Jacoby Ellsbury NY centerfielder (planetminecraft.com) |
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| Emblematic Yankees Logo (screensavers.com) |
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| Firebaling Matt Harvey in 2013 (wordpress.com |
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| A baseball seams tattoo over a TJ surgery scar courtesy of Kyle Blanks |
Wednesday, April 1, 2015
MLB NEWS
Opening Night in MLB is Sunday, April 5th, with the Saint Louis Cardinals visiting the Chicago Cubs. With players and fans getting antsy for the 2015 season to begin, the long awaited "play ball" will continue on Monday, April 6th, with a full slate of games.
There was a time when the traditional "Opening Day" game was played on Mondays in Cincinnati with the ceremonial first pitch of the season thrown there and then around the rest of the league. Cincinnati is recognized as the first pro baseball team and opening day in the "Queen City" was and is a real baseball holiday with parades and other ceremonies. I remember skipping school on some opening days, without my parents consent, just to listen to Reds' radio broadcasts of the start of a new season. Huge TV contracts, one of the cash cows and most important revenue streams for MLB, have changed the old format and now the Sunday Night Opening Game is the "new normal".
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| Opening Day in Cincy at Great American Ballpark (mlb.com) |
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| Masahiro Tanaka and the split finger fastball. March 2014 (zimbio.com) |
The free-spending Los Angeles Dodgers are without Hanley Ramirez and Matt Kemp this year, two of their best power hitters. 24 year old Yasiel Puig showed a modicum of maturity last year and will need to step up and fill some of that vacuum. The much talked about Puig, be it good or bad, will have to continue to polish his considerable tools and become a bona fide star player to fulfill expectations. Puig hit .274/.366/.414 after the 2014 All Star game with 4 HR's and 17 RBI's in 215 at bats, hardly numbers consistent with elite production. With only Adrian "The Titan" Gonzalez left over from last year's power hitting group, Puig will have to hit and hit with more power. He has to grow up and prove he's the "real deal".
The 2014 World Series champion, San Franciso Giants, have been known to exceed expectations and confound experts predictions to win 3 championships in the last 5 years (2010-2012-2014) This is very, very hard to do. They've played a lot of close games and have a knack for winning the big game, especially in the post season. This year's pitching staff, aside from Madison Bumgarner, the World Series ace, has a chance to be the worst starting pitching the Giants have had in years. Jake Peavy (34), Tim Hudson (39), Ryan Vogelsong (37), Tim Lincecum (31), and Matt Cain (30) are not a group that inspires confidence for a postseason push. Peavy has been very inconsistent and injury prone, Hudson is old and the once powerful sinker is not as effective, Vogelsong is aging and very inconsistent, Lincecum, is not "The Freak" anymore and has been so bad he might go to the bullpen. Washed up at 31? He's lost about 5-6 miles off his fastball. Cain, once the workhorse, is now throwing 91-92 when he threw 95 consistently with a killer slider. Still young, can he salvage his career? With these enormous question marks the Giants bullpen might be in for a long year. AT&T Park favors pitchers but with this group it will be difficult to "read the tea leaves" in San Francisco. Bruce Bochy is known for his deft handling of pitching staffs, but I think this will be one of those head scratching years.
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| Head scratching year for Bruce Bochy (zimbio.com) |
| NAME | AGE | HOME | AWAY | ||
| Tim Hudson | 39 | 89 | 3.94 | 100 | 3.23 |
| Ryan Vogelsong | 37 | 100 | 3.06 | 85 | 5.10 |
| Jake Peavy | 34 | 101 | 2.85 | 101 | 4.60 |
| Tim Lincecum | 31 | 94 | 3.91 | 61 | 6.02 |
| Matt Cain | 30 | 47 | 3.64 | 43 | 4.78 |
| The Home and Away columns feature IP and ERA |
Sunday, February 1, 2015
SERIE DEL CARIBE
From February 2-8, the Serie del Caribe (Caribbean Series) will be played in host country Puerto Rico at Hiram Bithorn Stadium. The four winter league champions from Venezuela, Mexico, Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico will be joined by the Cuban League Serie Nacional champion to play the 57th edition of this important regional baseball tournament. It's "fiesta time" for baseball fans in these countries. For baseball lovers all over, a good quality tournament in February is a real treat.
Recent tournaments have seen Mexico, once considered the "Cinderella", winning 3 of the last 4 ( 2011, 2012 and 2014) with Dominican Republic the champ in 2013. Last year's Series featured very few Major League players with champion Mexico not having any current major leaguers on their roster. Teams like Venezuela and Dominican Republic don't bulk up with star power so it's not an elite tournament but still very competitive. Last year the Cuban entry, Villa Clara, seemed over matched at times. This year the Pinar del Rio team has 17 reinforcements to make it look like the Cuban National Team.
Some time ago the 'Serie del Caribe" went through tough financial times. In 1990 and 1991 it was played in Miami. The 1990 series was organized by Rick Horrow, a sports venture CEO, and played at the Orange Bowl, resulting in a complete disaster. The playing field had about a 270 foot left field and the playing surface was in bad shape. Edgar Martinez, Omar Vizquel, Geronimo Berrroa, Moises Alou were some of the stars that participated. Felipe Alou led the Dominican team to victory. The 1991 version of the series was played at Bobby Maduro Stadium and changed it's name to Winterball 1. Though better than 1990, it still was not a success. We saw players like Geronimo Berroa, Henry Rodriguez, Melido Perez , Luis Gonzalez and Andujar Cedeño. The Dominicans also won this time under manager John Roseboro. Geronimo Berroa was the MVP both years. I attended all the games both years and while being impressed with the quality of some players, I was very disappointed with the organization and marketing of the event. Something as important as this Series deserved much better.
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| Mays, Clemente, Buster Clarkson, Bob Thurman, George Crowe Santurce 1955 |
There was a time when a lot of big name players took part in these tournaments. Hall of Famers,Willie Mays and Roberto Clemente played in the same outfield for the "Cangrejeros de Santurce" in 1955 at the Universitario de Caracas in Venezuela where they won the Series. Mays started slow (0 for 13) but then caught fire going 11 for 13 to make the All Star team. The 24 year old Mays was coming off a year of .345 average with 41 HR's and 110 RBI's for the New York Giants in 1954. Clemente, 20 years old at the time hit a modest .267 and did not make the series All Star team. He was just establishing himself. The Series MVP was SS Don Zimmer who hit 3 HR's. The recently passed Zimmer was on his way to becoming one of the great baseball persons of our time. Affectionately known as "Popeye", Zimmer was player, field coach, manager and bench coach. He never drew a paycheck in his life that was not baseball related spanning 65 years.
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| The great Willie Mays homering at the Universitario de Caracas in 1955 (gettyimages) |
baseball talent to put foot on a Caribbean Series diamond. The all native Puerto Rican "Dream Team", demolished the opposition outscoring them 49-15 and going undefeated. Rey Sanchez, the regular season batting champion, hit 9th on this star-studded team. Carlos Delgado C, Carmelo Martinez IB, Roberto Alomar 2B, Carlos Baerga 3B, Rey Sanchez SS, Juan "Igor" Gonzalez LF, Bernie Williams CF, Ruben Sierra RF and Edgar Martinez DH formed this fearsome 9. Twenty years ago they made Puerto Rico very proud. This group of players totaled 36 All Star appearances in the Major Leagues. Only Carmelo Martinez and Rey Sanchez did not make any All Star team despite being good players.
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| Alomar, Carmelo, Edgar, Sanchez, Sierra, Baerga, Williams, Gonzalez, Delgado ( Dream Team 1995) |
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| Miguel Tejada, the Bus Driver. |
Two of the young players to keep an eye on are: Maikel Franco of the Dominican team who should soon be playing in Philadelphia and Javier Baez of Puerto Rico, one of the new wave coming to the Chicago Cubs. Baez has scandalous power but a high swing and miss rate.
Friday, January 16, 2015
PROJECTING THE CUBANS 2015
It's difficult to consistently project player performance, but that is what a few smart guys are doing with their "projection systems". Marcel, ZiPs, Oliver, PECOTA and Steamer are the main systems out there right now. They're all pretty good with some being a little better at certain things. We'll use the "Steamer" system for our projections.
The Cuban pipeline continues to move players from the island nation to MLB. Seems like on a monthly basis players are making the jump across the Florida Straits. From the major-league ready players like Jose Abreu (6/68M), Yoennis Cespedes (4/36M) and Alexei Ramirez (4/32.5) who have provided good value with their performance and contracts to current high profile newcomers like Yasmany Tomas (6/68.5) and Rusney Castillo (7/72.5),who have benefited from their above predecessors to younger players like Roberto Baldoquin (8.0M), Yoan Lopez (8.25M) and the soon to be signed Yoan Moncada who have entered the International Draft signing for above market bonuses. Even the almost 30 year old Hector Olivera, a fine second baseman in Cuba has made the jump. It will be interesting to see how the market reacts to the very talented infielder who was plagued by injuries the last couple years. In between there are lower level players like 25 year old OF Dian Toscano quietly signing with the Braves (4yrs/6.0M). With this mixed pool of players, MLB organizations are jumping at the opportunity to sign "the next great Cuban player". One thing is for sure, a lot of the "cream" has been skimmed off the top of the talent pool in Cuba.
There are 9 established Cuban position players in MLB. This is what the "Steamer" system projects for them in 2015. Here's a few comments on players in the table below.
(wRC+ is an estimate of offensive value corrected for ballpark and league. 100 is league average, above is better, below is less than average).
Jose Abreu: Great 2014 season hitting for power and average. Some regression expected this year. Not the "sophomore jinx" but some league adjustments. Very good approach going to all fields. Needs to pick up his defensive game when on 1st base. Adam LaRoche is a much better fielder so he might see more time at DH. In his "prime" years, so good production is expected.
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| Yasiel Puig robbing Pedro Ciriaco and CF Andre Eithie |
Yasiel Puig: The best Cuban player by projected WAR (5.1). Right there offensively with Abreu (147 to 143). Playing under control he can contribute in all aspects of the game. Improved strike zone judgement in 2014. Still developing. Rated 3rd best CF in MLB behind Andrew McCutchen and Mike Trout. Very strong but not a typical power hitter, strong gap hitter with great speed. Should develop power with more experience. Love him or hate him he's always exciting.
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| Yasiel Puig bat flip vs Cardinals |
Leonys Martin: A below average hitter (93) but a very good defensive game and excellent base running. If offense improves to average or better can be a very good player. Needs to improve his OBP. In his prime, so improvement is expected.
Alexei Ramirez: Ramirez had a bounce-back season, but at 33 and at SS should start to slip some more. A steady defender and good base running the last few years have increased his value. Rated 8th best SS in MLB for 2014. On paper the Chisox look like a solid team this year. His contributions will be very important.
Adeiny Hechavarria: Controversial. Loved by the scouts and the Marlins but not well liked by the Sabermetric community. Numbers similar to Jose Iglesias but Iglesias considered a much better defensive player. Adeiny makes spectacular plays but he must also make all the routine plays and not lose concentration on defense. Still young with lot of room for improvement.
Yunel Escobar: Escobar really tanked in 2014. Did not hit and stunk defensively contributing to negative numbers. Might bounce back this year. Until last year he had the edge on Alexei as the better SS. With bad numbers and a "basket case" in the locker room, Escobar, at 32 is in a dangerous phase of his career.
Jose Iglesias: Lost all of 2014 to injuries but with a favorable impression from 2013, Iglesias is seen as a key to the Tigers infield defense. Makes spectacular plays and all the routine plays. Doesn't have to hit much to be valuable. A year off shouldn't affect the 25 yr old SS. Should form a very good keystone combo with Ian Kinsler.
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| Jose Iglesias turning two with Dustin Pedroia |
Dayan Viciedo: Will lose playing time this year to Melky Cabrera, Adam Eaton and Avisail Garcia in the Chisox outfield. Hit .213 the 2nd half of 2014 after starting April with .348. Was very bad defensively. Might be exiting Chicago soon. Young enough to catch on somewhere else. Has good power.
| NAME | AGE | AVG-HR-RBI | OBP-SLG | wRC+ | WAR | 2015 SAL |
| Jose Abreu | 28 | .283/34/98 | .355/.530 | 143 | 3.7 | 7.0 |
| Yasiel Puig | 24 | .294/22/74 | .373/.495 | 147 | 5.1 | 4.5 |
| Yoennis Cespedes | 29 | .268/24/86 | .319/.467 | 118 | 3.1 | 10.5 |
| Leonys Martin | 27 | .264/10/56 | .318/.387 | 93 | 2.3 | 3.8 |
| Alexei Ramirez | 33 | .265/11/63 | .300/.379 | 87 | 2.3 | 10.0 |
| Adeiny Hechavarria | 26 | .248/4/48 | .288/.335 | 82 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Yunel Escobar | 32 | .258/7/39 | .324/.351 | 96 | 1.8 | 5.0 |
| Jose Iglesias | 25 | .257/5/45 | .304/.341 | 81 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| Dayan Viciedo | 26 | .251/9/28 | .298/.424 | 103 | 0.2 | 2.8 |
Sunday, November 23, 2014
WHAT YOU SEE IS WHAT YOU GET?
Most teams in Major League Baseball have a "baseball analytics" department in charge of crunching data to find new ways to improve baseball decision making. The traditional "scouts" perform the eye test and the data analysis guys run the numbers and interpret results. The correct balance and meshing of both disciplines should produce the best results.
Fangraphs and Baseball Reference, are two of the groups processing data and evaluating players quantifying the different aspects of the game like hitting, pitching, fielding and running. The WAR metric ( Wins Above Replacement) is intended to capture the total value of the player and put it in a number. It is not perfect but it is the best we have now. I am sure in the near future it will be fine-tuned some more. WAR will vary for each group due to differences in the calculations. There is an effort to streamline the methodologies to arrive at more consistent results.
Yoenis Cespedes, the 29 year old LF for the Boston Red Sox, has been in MLB since 2012. He is a "toolsy" player winning 2 HR Derbies and made a couple of big fly throws to put runners out at home in 2014. He's been all across the news and very visible with the "wow' factor. Cespedes is a very good player whose main asset is power. His defense improved a lot in 2014. He passes the eye test very well. Some sports media people think Cespedes is an excellent power hitter because of the Derbies and his batting practice exploits. Sorry, his power has translated well but nothing exceptional.
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| Yoenis Cespedes homering in Oakland |
Cuban compatriot, 26 year old Leonys Martin, CF of the Texas Rangers is a very different type of player and much less recognized. A below average hitter, Martin usually hits near the bottom of the Rangers batting order and right now is mainly a defense and speed guy at a premium defensive position.
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| Leonys Martin in Arlington. |
| NAME | YEAR | fWAR | bWAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR-- RBI | SB - CS |
| Yoenis Cespedes | 2013 | 2.2 | 1.6 | .240/.294/.442 | 26-80 | 7 - 7 |
| 2014 | 3.4 | 4.1 | .260/.301/.450 | 22-100 | 7 - 2 | |
| TOTAL WAR | 5.6 | 5.7 | ||||
| Leonys Martin | 2013 | 2.8 | 3.1 | .260/.313/.385 | 8-49 | 36 - 9 |
| 2014 | 3.5 | 4.6 | .274/.325/.364 | 7-40 | 31 - 12 | |
| TOTAL WAR | 6.3 | 7.7 |
Fangraphs ( fWAR) and Baseball Reference (bWAR) although they differ in totals both point to Martin as the player with more value. Cespedes' low batting average and OBP% pull down his offensive numbers despite the power. His defense in 2014 was the 3rd best in MLB only behind Alex Gordon and Christian Yelich, with a 4.5 defensive value and 12 Defensive Runs Saved.
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| Leonys Martin providing stellar defense in CF |
Martin has a better BA, OBP% and much less power. He's the 4th best CF in 2014 with a 13.4 value and 15 Defensive Runs Saved only behind defensive whiz Juan Lagares at the premium CF position. Besides the stellar defense he's racked up 67 stolen bases the last 2 years at a 76% success rate. If he can pull his offense up to league average he can add even more value. About half of Martin's value is in his defense and base running while Cespedes is mainly an offensive player.
Cespedes pulled in about 20 million for both years, while Martin took in about 7 million. They say there is a premium on right-handed power hitters, so Yoenis Cespedes should get a nice contract after 2015. Martin will keep on providing very good value for his team and be relatively ignored. The takeaway here is that the much lesser known Martin according to the new metrics provides a little more value than the well regarded Cespedes at about one third of the cost. Of importance also is how a player fits into the needs of a particular team.
Monday, November 10, 2014
OFF SEASON BASEBALL
Coming up this week we'll have some international baseball action. A Group of MLB players managed by John Farrell of the Boston Red Sox, will tour Japan for a 7 game series ( 2 exhibitions and 5 games against Samurai Japan). The formerly called, Japan All Stars are now National Team "Samurai Japan". This 2014 edition, after an 8 year pause, will feature All Stars like Robinson Cano, Evan Longoria and batting champs Jose Altuve, Justin Morneau and some solid Japanese talent like fireballer Shohei Otani, Seiichi Uchikawa, Yuki Yanagita, Sho Nakata, Kenta Maeda and Hayato Sakamoto. Most of these Japanese players have WBC experience. The Americans have dominated these series and 2014 should be no different. Japan has an edge in its meticulous preparation and we'll see how this translates into wins. All in all, a good series with some nice talent on display. There is a Latin flavor on the MLB team with 10 of 29 players (34%). Four Dominicans and four Venezuelans lead this group. Overall, this is a team with pretty good position players and very questionable pitching. Matt Shoemaker and Hisashi Iwakuma are the best starting pitchers with Mark Melancon and Tommy Hunter the 2 best relievers.
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| 20 year old Shohei Otani, the next Japan pitching star? (stripealley.com) |
Starting Saturday in Veracruz, Mexico, the 22nd Central American and Caribbean Games will include a baseball tournament with 8 teams (Cuba, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Venezuela, Panama, Nicaragua, Mexico and Guatemala?). Didn't really know they played baseball in Guatemala. Teams like Dominican, Puerto Rico, Venezuela and Mexico that have Winter Leagues will be sending low level squads to compete. Cuba on the other hand, is sending their "A" team with WBC and Japan League experience. Seems like a little overkill or trying to kill a mosquito with a cannon. It could have been a great opportunity for the Cuban Baseball Federation to send a young manager with mostly good young players to cut their teeth in low level international competition. Wins for Cuba have been few and far between recently, so this could be the motivation. The Cuban players have nothing to do with the present debacle. The sole fault rests with this sport governing body. They took them from the top of the amateur baseball world to the present situation in a jiffy. Changes at the international level and limited vision caused the Cuban baseball bubble to burst and put them in the box they are now trying to crawl out. The talent of the Cuban player is undeniable despite some rough edges. Exposure to better baseball always results in better players.
MLB Network, the baseball channel, has done a good job of promoting baseball. They can improve programming, especially this time of year, with some live games from the Dominican Republic. This top echelon winter league offers very good games with a peek at young foreign and native prospects and minor leaguers trying to sharpen their skills for an opportunity at the "Big Show". Later in the season some established Major Leaguers can be seen helping teams classify for the play-offs. This baseball hotbed offers a ready made product for MLB Network.
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| Padres C Yasmani Grandal displaying power with Toros del Este in DR |
Monday, November 3, 2014
GOOD BAD AND UGLY
Recently, Fangraphs published a couple articles on the best defensive players at each position in the Major Leagues. Applying new methodology they are trying to quantify the defensive part of the game and produce something besides the eye test and the traditional errors and fielding percentage. It's far from perfect now, but a step in the right direction and should improve over time. Two defensive metrics, (UZR- Ultimate Zone Rating and DRS- Defensive Runs Saved) are used as a base for the calculations. For catchers, it's a little bit different.
Sometimes these ratings coincide with the Gold Glove given out by MLB for the best defensive players, sometimes they don't. The list presents the top 3 and bottom 3 at each position. I'll just make a few comments based on this information.
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| CF Juan Lagares best defensive player in MLB 2014 |
The top 3 defensive players with the highest scores in the AL belong to the Kansas City Royals. Outfielders Jarrod Dyson (23.4), Alex Gordon (18.9) and Lorenzo Cain ( 16.7) all roam the spacious outfield at Kauffman Stadium. We saw how great they are in the recently finalized post season. The top rated defensive player in all of baseball was CF Juan Lagares of the New York Mets with 24.7. The 25 year old Dominican is a super defensive player.
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| Defensive whiz Juan Lagares at Citi Field. |
The best defensive infielder was Andrelton Simmons, SS of the Atlanta Braves with 17.0. The 25 year old native from Curacao was the best overall defender in MLB last year, so the consistency is there. 3B Chase Headley of SD Padres and NY Yankees did very well in 2nd place with 15.7 and 2B Dustin Pedroia of the Bosox was 3rd with 14.9.
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| Andrelton Simmons with some help from Freddie Freeman |
The Miami Marlins had the worst defensive catcher (Jarrod Saltalamacchia ) in MLB with an ugly -29.9, the 2nd worst first baseman in the NL ( Garrett Jones) with -3.5 and the 2nd worst SS in the NL ( Adeiny Hechavarria) with -4.6. There is a lot of defensive shakiness on the Marlins. On the other hand, Christian Yelich was rated the best LF in the NL with 10.9. Hechavarria, the 25 year old Cuban, passes the eye test and some people ( especially Marlins people) think the advanced defensive metrics doesn't capture his true value and think he is a Gold Glove quality defender despite very poor ratings. He might be improving but he's still around the bottom. His fielding percentage went from .976 to .979, his errors from 15 to 14 and his Defensive Runs Saved remained the same at -3. The Zone Rating is not kind to Hechavarria, meaning a lot of balls hit in his area are not converted to outs. This might be due to defensive positioning.
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| Marlins Adeiny Hechavarria improving but still rating low. |
There is a small but growing pool of Cuban players in MLB and a few of them showed up on these lists. Yoenis Cespedes, has shown improvement his 3 years going from bad in 2012 to average in 2013 to pretty good in 2014. He is now only behind Alex Gordon in LF with 10.1 in the AL. On the negative side we have SS Yunel Escobar of the Tampa Bay Rays with an ugly -17.3, the worst figures of his career and of his position in MLB this year. The above mentioned Adeiny Hechavarria with a -4.6 , the 2nd worst mark in the NL only behind Hanley Ramirez of the Dodgers with -10.5. The Chicago White Sox sport a pair of bad fielders in Jose Abreu ( -7.0) the worst defensive first baseman in MLB and Dayan Viciedo with -12.3, the 3rd worst RF in the AL.
Tuesday, October 21, 2014
MULTITASKING
Jose Abreu had a great year for the Chicago White Sox. He broke Ron Kittle's rookie HR record of 35 and finished high on the leaderboard in the main hitting categories in the AL, .317/.383/.581 with 36 HR's and 107 RBI's. In the process he racked up 14, 18 and 21 game hitting streaks. The Cuban slugger established himself as an offensive force in the American League. Fangraphs WAR leaders for first basemen finds him in 3rd place with 5.3 WAR, only behind Anthony Rizzo of the Cubs with 5.6 and Miguel Cabrera of the Tigers with 5.4 WAR. He lags behind because of his fielding and base running, not because of his hitting.
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| Jose Abreu first career home run in Colorado. |
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| ALEXEI RAMIREZ 2008 | HR | AVERAGE |
| FIRST HALF | 7 | 0.312 |
| SECOND HALF | 14 | 0.269 |
| YOENIS CESPEDES 2012 | ||
| FIRST HALF | 9 | 0.263 |
| SECOND HALF | 14 | 0.311 |
Jose Abreu has an advanced offensive approach and should keep on hitting for good average and power. I don't think his 2014 season is repeatable because of his very high BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play). He registered .437 and .439 in July and August when he had his hitting streaks. His overall .356 BABIP is still very high and very difficult to repeat. Both, Alexei Ramirez and Yoenis Cespedes had their best offensive seasons in their first year. I hope Abreu doesn't peak in his first year like Benito Santiago, the Rookie of the Year in 1987 with San Diego who hit .300 and had a rookie and catcher record 34 game hitting streak. He never approached those numbers the rest of his career. Abreu might be in for some serious regression in his offensive output. Some inside info on Abreu shows he hit only .236 on ground balls which he hit little over 45% of the time and .220 on curve balls during the season. He hit .377 on fly balls.
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