WHAT YOU SEE IS WHAT YOU GET?

Most teams in Major League Baseball have a "baseball analytics" department in charge of crunching data to find new ways to improve baseball decision making.  The traditional "scouts" perform the eye test and the data analysis guys run the numbers and interpret results.  The correct balance and meshing of both disciplines should produce the best results.

Fangraphs and Baseball Reference, are two of the groups processing data and evaluating players quantifying the different aspects of the game like hitting, pitching, fielding and running.  The WAR metric ( Wins Above Replacement) is intended to capture the total value of the player and put it in a number.  It is not perfect but it is the best we have now.  I am sure in the near future it will be fine-tuned some more.  WAR will vary for each group due to differences in the calculations.  There is an effort to streamline the methodologies to arrive at more consistent results.

Yoenis Cespedes, the 29 year old LF for the Boston Red Sox, has been in MLB since 2012.  He is a "toolsy" player winning 2 HR Derbies and made a couple of big fly throws to put runners out at home in 2014.  He's been all across the news and very visible with the "wow' factor.  Cespedes is a very good player whose main asset is power.  His defense improved a lot in 2014.  He passes the eye test very well.  Some sports media people think Cespedes is an excellent power hitter because of the Derbies and his batting practice exploits. Sorry, his power has translated well but nothing exceptional. 

Yoenis Cespedes homering in Oakland

Cuban compatriot, 26 year old Leonys Martin, CF of the Texas Rangers is a very different type of player and much less recognized.  A below average hitter, Martin usually hits near the bottom of the Rangers batting order and right now is mainly a defense and speed guy at a premium defensive position. 

Leonys Martin in Arlington.

The following table compares the 2013 and 2014 years for Cespedes and Martin.  2012 is not included because of few at bats for Martin:

NAME	YEAR	fWAR	bWAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR-- RBI	SB - CS
Yoenis Cespedes	2013	2.2	1.6	.240/.294/.442	26-80	7 - 7
	2014	3.4	4.1	.260/.301/.450	22-100	7 - 2
TOTAL WAR		5.6	5.7
Leonys Martin	2013	2.8	3.1	.260/.313/.385	8-49	36 - 9
	2014	3.5	4.6	.274/.325/.364	7-40	31 - 12
TOTAL WAR		6.3	7.7

Fangraphs ( fWAR) and Baseball Reference (bWAR) although they differ in totals both point to Martin as the player with more value.  Cespedes' low batting average and OBP% pull down his offensive numbers despite the power. His defense in 2014 was the 3rd best in MLB only behind Alex Gordon and Christian Yelich, with a 4.5 defensive value and 12 Defensive Runs Saved.  

Leonys Martin providing stellar defense in CF

Martin has a better BA, OBP% and much less power.  He's the 4th best CF in 2014 with a 13.4 value and 15 Defensive Runs Saved only behind defensive whiz Juan Lagares at the premium CF position.  Besides the stellar defense he's racked up 67 stolen bases the last 2 years at a 76% success rate.  If he can pull his offense up to league average he can add even more value.  About half of Martin's value is in his defense and base running while Cespedes is mainly an offensive player.  

Cespedes pulled in about 20 million for both years, while Martin took in about 7 million.  They say there is a premium on right-handed power hitters, so Yoenis Cespedes should get a nice contract after 2015.  Martin will keep on providing very good value for his team and be relatively ignored.  The takeaway here is that the much lesser known Martin according to the new metrics provides a little more value than the well regarded Cespedes at about one third of the cost.  Of  importance also is how a player fits into the needs of a particular team.

OFF SEASON BASEBALL

Coming up this week we'll have some international baseball action.  A Group of MLB players managed by John Farrell of the Boston Red Sox, will tour Japan for a 7 game series ( 2 exhibitions and 5 games against Samurai Japan).  The formerly called, Japan All Stars are now National Team "Samurai Japan".  This 2014 edition, after an 8 year pause, will feature All Stars like Robinson Cano, Evan Longoria and batting champs Jose Altuve, Justin Morneau and some solid Japanese talent like fireballer Shohei Otani, Seiichi Uchikawa, Yuki Yanagita, Sho Nakata, Kenta Maeda and Hayato Sakamoto. Most of these Japanese players have WBC experience.  The Americans have dominated these series and 2014 should be no different.  Japan has an edge in its meticulous preparation and we'll see how this translates into wins.  All in all, a good series with some nice talent on display. There is a Latin flavor on the MLB team with 10 of 29 players (34%).  Four Dominicans and four Venezuelans lead this group.  Overall, this is a team with pretty good position players and very questionable pitching.  Matt Shoemaker and Hisashi Iwakuma are the best starting pitchers with Mark Melancon and Tommy Hunter the 2 best relievers.

20 year old Shohei Otani, the next Japan pitching star?  (stripealley.com)

Starting Saturday in Veracruz, Mexico, the 22nd Central American and Caribbean Games will include a baseball tournament with 8 teams (Cuba, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Venezuela, Panama, Nicaragua, Mexico and Guatemala?).  Didn't really know they played baseball in Guatemala.  Teams like Dominican, Puerto Rico, Venezuela and Mexico that have Winter Leagues will be sending low level squads to compete.  Cuba on the other hand, is sending their "A" team with WBC and Japan League experience.  Seems like a little overkill or trying to kill a mosquito with a cannon.  It could have been a great opportunity for the Cuban Baseball Federation to send a young manager with mostly good young players to cut their teeth in low level international competition.  Wins for Cuba have been few and far between recently, so this could be the motivation.  The Cuban players have nothing to do with the present debacle.  The sole fault rests with this sport governing body.  They took them from the top of the amateur baseball world to the present situation in a jiffy. Changes at the international level and limited vision caused the Cuban baseball bubble to burst and put them in the box they are now trying to crawl out.  The talent of the Cuban player is undeniable despite some rough edges.  Exposure to better baseball always results in better players.


MLB Network, the baseball channel, has done a good job of promoting baseball.  They can improve programming, especially this time of year, with some live games from the Dominican Republic.  This top echelon winter league offers very good games with a peek at young foreign and native prospects and minor leaguers trying to sharpen their skills for an opportunity at the "Big Show".  Later in the season some established Major Leaguers can be seen helping teams classify for the play-offs.  This baseball hotbed offers a ready made product for MLB Network.

Padres C Yasmani Grandal displaying power with Toros del Este in DR

GOOD BAD AND UGLY

Recently, Fangraphs published a couple articles on the best defensive players at each position in the Major Leagues.  Applying new methodology they are trying to quantify the defensive part of the game and produce something besides the eye test and the traditional errors and fielding percentage. It's far from perfect now, but a step in the right direction and should improve over time. Two defensive metrics, (UZR- Ultimate Zone Rating and DRS- Defensive Runs Saved) are used as a base for the calculations.  For catchers, it's a little bit different.

Sometimes these ratings coincide with the Gold Glove given out by MLB for the best defensive players, sometimes they don't. The list presents the top 3 and bottom 3 at each position.  I'll just make a few comments based on this information.

CF Juan Lagares  best defensive player in MLB 2014

The top 3 defensive players with the highest scores in the AL belong to the Kansas City Royals.  Outfielders Jarrod Dyson (23.4), Alex Gordon (18.9) and Lorenzo Cain ( 16.7) all roam the spacious outfield at Kauffman Stadium.  We saw how great they are in the recently finalized post season.  The top rated defensive player in all of baseball was CF Juan Lagares of the New York Mets with 24.7.  The 25 year old Dominican is a super defensive player.  

Defensive whiz Juan Lagares at Citi Field.

The best defensive infielder was Andrelton Simmons, SS of the Atlanta Braves with 17.0.  The 25 year old native from Curacao was the best overall defender in MLB last year, so the consistency is there.  3B Chase Headley of SD Padres and NY Yankees did very well in 2nd place with 15.7 and 2B Dustin Pedroia of the Bosox was 3rd with 14.9.  

Andrelton Simmons with some help from Freddie Freeman

The Miami Marlins had the worst defensive catcher (Jarrod Saltalamacchia ) in MLB with an ugly -29.9, the 2nd worst first baseman  in the NL ( Garrett Jones) with -3.5 and the 2nd worst SS in the NL ( Adeiny Hechavarria) with -4.6.  There is a lot of defensive shakiness on the Marlins. On the other hand, Christian Yelich  was rated the best LF in the NL with 10.9.  Hechavarria, the 25 year old Cuban, passes the eye test and some people ( especially Marlins people) think the advanced defensive metrics doesn't capture his true value and think he is a Gold Glove quality defender despite very poor ratings.  He might be improving but he's still around the bottom.  His fielding percentage went from  .976 to .979, his errors from 15 to 14 and his Defensive Runs Saved remained the same at -3.  The Zone Rating is not kind to Hechavarria, meaning a lot of balls hit in his area are not converted to outs.  This might be due to defensive positioning.

Marlins Adeiny Hechavarria improving but still rating low.

There is a small but growing pool of Cuban players in MLB and a few of them showed up on these lists.  Yoenis Cespedes, has shown improvement his 3 years going from bad in 2012 to average in 2013 to pretty good in 2014. He is now only behind Alex Gordon in LF with 10.1 in the AL.  On the negative side we have SS Yunel Escobar of the Tampa Bay Rays with an ugly -17.3, the worst figures of his career and of his position in MLB this year.  The above mentioned Adeiny Hechavarria with a -4.6 , the 2nd worst mark in the NL only behind Hanley Ramirez of the Dodgers with -10.5.  The Chicago White Sox sport a pair of bad fielders in Jose Abreu ( -7.0) the worst defensive first baseman in MLB and Dayan Viciedo with -12.3, the 3rd worst RF in the AL.