WEEK FOUR

GROWING UP  

As we start the 4th week of MLB 2014 there have been 8 complete games pitched so far. Seven in the National League and one in the American League.  On  April 18, Martin Perez, the 23 year old LHP of the Texas Rangers, quietly manhandled the Chicago White Sox, one of the highest scoring teams with a sparkling performance (9 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 1 W and 8 K's) in Texas.  Perez is providing the Rangers' rotation with quality innings behind Yu Darvish in the absence of Derek Holland, Matt Harrison and the recently activated Colby Lewis. In 29 IP he's pitching for a 1.86 ERA. The southpaw is a growing pitcher taking advantage of opportunity to gain experience and become a bona fide starter. He had a nice 2013 with 20 starts, 1 CG, 124 IP  and a 3.62 ERA and a 1.6 WAR.  Owner of a very good change up and a not too good four seamer, Perez has adopted the two seamer (sinker) as his best pitch and has seen his groundball rate jump from 48 to 57 % and his fly ball % drop from 31 to 22%.  50 (46%) of his 109 pitches in the Chisox win were sinkers.  A very good sinker and change up along with the 4 seamer, slider and occasional curve fill out his repertoire.  

Martin Perez and the change up   (espn.go.com)

HOME AND AWAY

The Miami Marlins have 9 wins and 11 losses in their first 20 games, a .450 winning percentage that projects to about 73 wins for the year.  9 wins 4 losses at home is good but the 0-7 on the road  is very disappointing .  Winning road games in the NL East is vital to show improvement.  The Marlins offense, the achilles heel last year, is off to a fast start with the 5th best team WAR in MLB and 4th in the NL with 4.0.  They are only behind the Colorado Rockies in batting average (.299 to .271).  
Spearheading the offense is the youngest outfield  in MLB with a highly productive 2.4 WAR.  Christian Yelich, 22, (.338/.407/.429), Marcell Ozuna 23, (.329/.383/.507) and Giancarlo Stanton 24, (.284/..367/.568) are the three best hitters on the team.  Yelich and Osuna are playing their first full season and the numbers should regress but it is a glimpse of the future.  

Christian Yelich at Marlins Park   (zimbio.com)

Marcell Ozuna vs Phillies   (rantsports.com)

CHANGING  LANDSCAPE

Even small sample sizes set the trends for the year.  2014 includes the games up to April 21.
               R/G     HR/G      BA       K/G
1990       4.26       .79       .258       5.67
2000       5.14     1.17       .270       6.45
2010       4.38       .95       .257       7.06
2013       4.17       .96       .253       7.55
2014       4.17       .92       .248       7.97         

These are MLB (including NL and AL) averages per team per game.

00-14    -18.9%   -21.4%   -8.1%   23.5%
10-14     -4.8%     -3.2%    -3.5%   12.9%

The game has changed a lot since 2000 with run scoring dropping 18.9%, HR's decreasing 21.4% and batting average 8.1% while the strikeout rate increased 23.5%.  More recent from 2010 to this year run scoring has dropped 4.8%, HR's 3.2% and batting average 3.5% with the K rate going up 12.9%.  The spike in strikeouts is the most dramatic and the trend continues upward.  It's a low run scoring environment, when will it level off?  



Stas courtesy of Fangraphs, Baseball Reference and Brooks Baseball