OVERMANAGING

Recently I saw a couple games get away late from teams that had a very demoralizing effect because they were leading most of the game.  Bad teams lose games early and in the middle innings because they get blown out. When in position to win a game holding a 2-3 run lead in the 9th inning managers have to think a little different, especially those teams that don't have an established closer and are going by "committee".  

The Astros led the Athletics 3-1 going to the bottom of the ninth. Matt Albers (ERA 0.90) pitched a fine 8th inning and is not a stranger to going 1+ innings.  Chad Qualls (3.86 ERA) was brought into the game with 8 days rest.  From the beginning, Qualls wasn't sharp.  1 walk and 4 hits later the A's walked away with a 4-3 win. The action of bringing in Qualls and the inaction of not taking him out when things were on fire falls on Bo Porter.  

Bo Porter vs Oakland A's   (Getty Images)

Yesterday, April 23rd, the Kansas City Packers (Arizona Diamondbacks) and the Chicago Federals (Chicago Cubs) celebrated the 100th anniversary of Wrigley Field (April 23, 1914). A very nice day for the franchise with the Hall of Famers on hand and the teams fitted in their 1914 retro uniforms with stockings. The day ended on a sour note for the home team.  The Cubs went into the 9th inning leading 5-2.  Hector Rondon, having an excellent year (0.84 ERA) got the last 2 outs of the 8th inning on 6 pitches looking very strong.  Pedro Strop (3.52 ERA) was brought in to close the game.  24 pitches later (2 walks and a botched double play grounder by Starlin Castro) Strop had not made the first out.  He did manage 2 outs but then in combination with James Russell and Justin Grimm they blew up the game and handed Arizona a 5 spot to eventually lose 7-5.  It took 42 pitches to end this ugly inning. The body language of the Cubs after this game was awful.  The Cubs broadcast team was shocked.

Rick Renteria   (shawmedia.com)

In both instances the managers played a vital role in the loss.  With no established closers and the 8th inning guys pitching very well why not let them start the 9th and make moves if they get in trouble?  

The bullpen is an area that can be constructed with efficiency and cost containment.  The good teams do it all the time.  This is a bullpen era and if you don't have a good one or handle it well the results are disastrous.


PITCHING SPECTACULAR

The Miami Marlins and Atlanta Braves just finished a 3 game series in Atlanta with the Fish losing 2 of 3 late , but giving the division leading Braves notice that they'll be tough this year.  Evan Gattis was the hero in games 1 and 3 with a walk-off HR in game 1 and a pinch-hit 2 run double in game 3 to seal the win.  Jose Fernandez gave the Marlins their first road win in the 2nd game with a sparkling 1-0 win with 3 hits allowed, 0 walks and 14 K's in 8 IP.
Overall pitching was spectacular in this series.

Jose Fernandez vs Braves   (mlb.com)

                           Runs     BB        K           HR
Marlins offense     4         5          41            1
Braves offense      7         9          37            2

TOTAL                 11       14        78             3

Evan Gattis double vs Marlins   (zimbio.com)

Stats courtesy of Fangraphs and Major League Baseball.

WEEK FOUR

GROWING UP  

As we start the 4th week of MLB 2014 there have been 8 complete games pitched so far. Seven in the National League and one in the American League.  On  April 18, Martin Perez, the 23 year old LHP of the Texas Rangers, quietly manhandled the Chicago White Sox, one of the highest scoring teams with a sparkling performance (9 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 1 W and 8 K's) in Texas.  Perez is providing the Rangers' rotation with quality innings behind Yu Darvish in the absence of Derek Holland, Matt Harrison and the recently activated Colby Lewis. In 29 IP he's pitching for a 1.86 ERA. The southpaw is a growing pitcher taking advantage of opportunity to gain experience and become a bona fide starter. He had a nice 2013 with 20 starts, 1 CG, 124 IP  and a 3.62 ERA and a 1.6 WAR.  Owner of a very good change up and a not too good four seamer, Perez has adopted the two seamer (sinker) as his best pitch and has seen his groundball rate jump from 48 to 57 % and his fly ball % drop from 31 to 22%.  50 (46%) of his 109 pitches in the Chisox win were sinkers.  A very good sinker and change up along with the 4 seamer, slider and occasional curve fill out his repertoire.  

Martin Perez and the change up   (espn.go.com)

HOME AND AWAY

The Miami Marlins have 9 wins and 11 losses in their first 20 games, a .450 winning percentage that projects to about 73 wins for the year.  9 wins 4 losses at home is good but the 0-7 on the road  is very disappointing .  Winning road games in the NL East is vital to show improvement.  The Marlins offense, the achilles heel last year, is off to a fast start with the 5th best team WAR in MLB and 4th in the NL with 4.0.  They are only behind the Colorado Rockies in batting average (.299 to .271).  
Spearheading the offense is the youngest outfield  in MLB with a highly productive 2.4 WAR.  Christian Yelich, 22, (.338/.407/.429), Marcell Ozuna 23, (.329/.383/.507) and Giancarlo Stanton 24, (.284/..367/.568) are the three best hitters on the team.  Yelich and Osuna are playing their first full season and the numbers should regress but it is a glimpse of the future.  

Christian Yelich at Marlins Park   (zimbio.com)

Marcell Ozuna vs Phillies   (rantsports.com)

CHANGING  LANDSCAPE

Even small sample sizes set the trends for the year.  2014 includes the games up to April 21.
               R/G     HR/G      BA       K/G
1990       4.26       .79       .258       5.67
2000       5.14     1.17       .270       6.45
2010       4.38       .95       .257       7.06
2013       4.17       .96       .253       7.55
2014       4.17       .92       .248       7.97         

These are MLB (including NL and AL) averages per team per game.

00-14    -18.9%   -21.4%   -8.1%   23.5%
10-14     -4.8%     -3.2%    -3.5%   12.9%

The game has changed a lot since 2000 with run scoring dropping 18.9%, HR's decreasing 21.4% and batting average 8.1% while the strikeout rate increased 23.5%.  More recent from 2010 to this year run scoring has dropped 4.8%, HR's 3.2% and batting average 3.5% with the K rate going up 12.9%.  The spike in strikeouts is the most dramatic and the trend continues upward.  It's a low run scoring environment, when will it level off?  



Stas courtesy of Fangraphs, Baseball Reference and Brooks Baseball

PADRE POWER

On April 11, Andrew Cashner, the 6' 6" 225 lb pitcher of  the San Diego Padres threw the first complete game of the 2014 MLB season holding the Detroit Tigers to 1 hit, 2 base on balls and 11 strikeouts on 108 pitches.  Cashner was so good manager Bud Black was forced to keep him in and give the bullpen a good rest. Cashner's fastball sat comfortably around 94-95 mph topping out at 99.7.  The last half of 2013 the 27 year old RHP pitched for a 2.14 ERA in 75 IP and started to establish himself as one of the NL's best.  He finished with 26 starts, 175 IP, 10 wins 9 losses, a solid 3.09 ERA  and a 2.4 WAR.  Andrew Cashner is a name to remember. 

Andrew Cashner vs Cubs at Petco 2013   (fansided.com)

Signed by the Chicago Cubs in 2008 he was a starting pitcher in the minor leagues arriving in Chicago in 2010 where he was used in relief in 2010 and 2011 with 60 appearances and only 1 start showing great stuff  but limited repertoire and success.  Traded on January 6, 2012, to the Padres for Anthony Rizzo, the Cubs first baseman, he continued mostly in relief but did start 5 games subbing for injured starters.  After 5 relief games in 2013, the light bulb went on for Bud Black and he started the conversion of Cashner into a full time starting pitcher. Despite a slow start he really picked up steam and finished very strong.  Always a hard thrower, regularly touching and passing 100 mph in relief, Cashner started throwing the two seamer (sinker) to go along with the fireballing four seamer, slider and occasional curve and change. The fastball is still his bread and butter pitch but now with more movement.  The transition seems almost complete and when pitching at Petco it's very difficult to beat him.  He won his first arbitration hearing this year with a 2.4 million reward and won't be a free agent until 2017.

Justin Upton vs Rockies    (fancloud.com)

POWER STATS

Two of the longest home runs this early season have been hit by the Marlins' Giancarlo Stanton with Justin Upton of the Braves providing the top three "bombs"  
Name                        Date            FT      Place
Giancarlo Stanton     April 4       484     Marlins Park
Justin Upton             April  10     477     Turner Field
Giancarlo Stanton     April 12     469     Citizens Bank

Stanton's 484 foot blast came off the bat at 118.8 mph, the fastest batted ball speed this year.

Giancarlo Stanton vs Cubs   (zimbio.com)

On April 8, 22 year old, Yordano Ventura of the Kansas City   Royals was clocked at 102.9 mph becoming the fastest pitch recorded by Pitch FX for a starting pitcher in a regular season game surpassing the 102.8 he recorded last September.  Ventura is 5'11" tall and weighs around 180 lbs.  

Yordano Ventura   (cnnsi.com)

Stats courtesy of Fangraphs, Brooks Baseball and Espn.

THIRD BASE IN KANSAS CITY

The Kansas City Royals are an improving team with a nice core of young position players (Salvador Perez, Eric Hosmer, Alex Gordon, Alcides Escobar).  They signed two good free agents this year (Nori Aoki and Omar Infante) to cover up some holes (2B and RF)  The rotation is a work in progress but the bullpen is one of the best in the game along with a tight defense.  One of the young players not living up to expectations is 25 year old Mike Moustakas who spent 4.5 years in the minors (1907 plate appearances) arriving in Kansas City in 2011 as a highly touted power prospect at the hot corner.  The "Moose" (nickname) hit 20 HR in 2012.  Other than that his career slash line (.241/.294/.380) is not good.  As KC reaches for the postseason he is expected to step up soon if not the alternative is to pursue a third baseman on the market or look an in-house solution.  There is opportunity here.

Mike Moustakas   (Sports Illustrated.com)

Enter Cheslor Cuthbert, the 21 year old Nicaraguan is a longshot and is currently at Northwest Arkansas in the Texas League (AA). Rated the #5 prospect in KC before the 2012 season Cuthbert has disappointed and been slow to develop.  He is now rated #20 in the organization.  Currently on the 40 man roster he got a taste of big league camp this year.  A good year in AA can put him back on the prospect map and fast track him to Kansas City.  He is a talented player that can still develop and improve his standing in KC or elsewhere.  Youth is on his side.  His Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) is 2015.

Cheslor Cuthbert   (mlbblogs.com)

One step down in the Carolina League (high A) at Wilmington is Hunter Dozier, the 8th pick in the 2013 draft.  The 22 year old college hitter (6:4 220lbs) had a good debut between rookie and low A ball hitting .308/.397.495.  All his tools rate better than Cuthbert's with a total rating of 55 compared to 45.  His ETA is 2016 and is now Kansas City #7 overall prospect and main third base prospect.  

Hunter Dozier  2014 spring training   (aeryssports.com)

Both prospects have gotten off to good starts this year while Moustakas has yet to get his first hit in 21 plate appearances in KC.


Stats courtesy of Fangraphs and MLB.

OPENING WEEK

Week one of another exciting MLB season is in the books.  With new rules concerning replays and home plate collisions on the field and a tightening of PED enforcement off the field the great game moves forward. 

ACES IN TRANSITION
Even with a small sample size (2 starts each) here are some early observations:
Justin Verlander had a subpar (for him) 2013 with  a 3.46 ERA after 2.64 in 2012 and 2.40 in 2011.  On January 9, 2014 he had core muscle surgery with a 6 week recovery period that went well enabling him to start the season on time.  One of the ultimate power pitchers saw his fastball lose some steam (95+ to 94) last year.  He is around 94 this year but throwing a lot more curves (normal 14-15% now up to 23%).  The Detroit Tigers ace who regularly touched 100 mph after 100 pitches in 2011 and 2012 will be closely watched to see if his velocity and pitch mix change the next few months. Does he still have that 100 mph heater in the tank? The 31 year old RHP strikeout rate is down to 3.2/9 IP from a normal of 8-9K/9 IP.  Verlander's salary this year is 20 million and he's signed through 2019 at 28 million per year (2015-2019).

Justin Verlander   (mlbphotos)

CC Sabathia had a career worst (4.78 ERA) in 2013.  His fastball velocity dropped from 94 to 92 the last couple years and it's down to about 90 as we start the year.  CC lost about 20 lbs in the offseason.  The 33 year old LHP is revamping his repertoire throwing less 4 seamers (40 to 15%) more sinkers (15 to 36%), sliders (22-27%) and changeups (16-22%).  He's morphing from a big and tall power pitcher to a tall average stuff lefty.  

CC Sabathia spring 2014    (northjersey.com)

Jered Weaver, the Angels ace, never was in the hard throwing category like Verlander and Sabathia.  Always depending on deception and a 90 mph heater and excellent off speed stuff Weaver still had a very good year in 2013 (3.27 ERA) pitching for 2.41 ERA in 2011 and 2.81 in 2012.  Weaver's 2011 fastball averaged 89.2 and now its down to a pedestrian 86 mph.  His pitch usage has changed over the years.
               4 seam FB    2 seam FB   Curve       Change
2011           30.0%          19.0%       10.3%       15.9%
2014           20.0             26.0           15.9          18.5

The 31 year old Weaver keeps evolving to stay ahead of the game and throwing a variety of pitches to keep hitters off balance with a still good strikeout rate of about 7/ 9 IP.  

Jered Weaver   (chron.com)

These aces should play a big role at the top of their rotations.  At the end of the season will they still be there?


Stats courtesy of Fangraphs, Baseball Reference , Brooks Baseball.