DARVISH-TANAKA REVISITED

It started in Japan and now it's in MLB.  The comparison between Japanese pitching stars Yu Darvish of the Texas Rangers and Masahiro Tanaka of the New York Yankees.  The 25 year old Tanaka is a rookie while the 27 year old Darvish is in his third season.  The Japan numbers were so close, but at the end Tanaka squeezed by Darvish as the best pitcher to come out of Japan.  As we scan the AL pitching leaderboards both right handers are up there with the best with Tanaka sporting slightly better positions.
 

Yu Darvish vs Indians at Arlington  ( zimbio.com)

The eye test says Darvish throws harder with a little bit more pitch variety but with room to grow in his command.  Tanaka has less raw stuff but looks like a finished product with his great command  and poise hitting his spots and changing speeds.  His split finger fastball is one of the best pitches in MLB right now.  
 

Yu Darvish vs Oakland A's  (zimbio.com)

Tanaka has transitioned to MLB better than expected (2013 ERA Japan 1.27, 2014 ERA MLB 1.99), becoming the team ace  (11-1-1.99) after beginning as the 4th starter and moving up while his fellow rotation members have fallen like flies (CCSabathia, Ivan Nova, Michael Pineda).  His rookie year so far is much better than Yu's first season (Yu 3.90 ERA- Tanaka 1.99 ERA).  He's not pitched less than 6 innings in any start and his only loss was to the NL Central last place Chicago Cubs.  Here are some pitching metrics:
               WAR  ERA   K/9    H/9    W/9   AVG    HR
Tanaka    3.9    1.99     10.2    7.1    1.4    .214     10
Darvish   3.3    2.39     10.9    7.7    3.2    .228      5

Masahiro has allowed 10 HR's in 100 IP with the Yankees.  He allowed 10 ( 4 in 2012 and 6 in 2013) in 385 innings his last 2 years in Japan.  Fangraphs points out a big difference:
                     OZS%                OZC%
Darvish          30.3                   58.1
Tanaka           38.4                   51.0

Hitters swing at a lot more pitches out of the strike zone for Tanaka (38.4% to 30.3) and the Out Of Zone Contact % is a lot lower for the Yankees ace (51.1% to 58.1).  Product no doubt of the split finger fastball.  The breakdown of type of pitches thrown is:
                      FB%           SL%          SF%
Darvish         58.0             19.0             2.3
Tanaka          42.0             21.0            25.4

They throw around the same amount of sliders, with Darvish throwing a lot more fastballs and Masahiro throws his split finger pitch 25% of the time while Yu rarely uses this pitch.

Masahiro Tanaka at Yankee Stadium  (zimbio.com)

With more than half a season to go, I expect some regression for Tanaka as hitters get used to his repertoire and devise a better game plan.

Tanaka has been more efficient throwing more strikes ( 67% to 63) and getting a lot more swings and misses ( 21.2% to 15.3).

Masahiro Tanaka in Seattle  (zimbio.com)

The two pitching stars are among the best and draw a lot of attention when they take the mound.  The New York market and the Yankee franchise is very demanding.  The "dog days" are ahead and the toughest part of the MLB schedule is yet to be played.

HAVE BAT WILL TRAVEL

It was good to see Kendrys Morales signed by the Minnesota Twins to a 1 year 12.0 million prorated contract ( 8.0 million for June to September).  The last free agent to sign this year, the soon to be 31 year old switch hitter miscalculated the market and lost the first 2 months of the season.  Surprisingly the Twins signed Kendrys.  They are in last place in the AL Central but with the Detroit Tigers not pulling away and all the teams bunched up from top to bottom with 5 games of separation, the Twins might be a surprise and have a good season. Morales is still a good hitter, hitting for average and power and bringing a solid bat to the middle of the Twins' lineup.  With a core of up and coming young Latin players (Danny Santana, Oswaldo Arcia, Josmil Pinto, Eduardo Escobar) Morales can be a mentor and example of professionalism they can follow even if it's only a 4 month rental.

Kendrys Morales in first at bat 2014  (zimbio.com)

At the time of his injury he was 26 years old and just coming into his prime.  Having lost 1.5 years to a horrible ankle injury, his 2009 season was one for the ages for Cuban players residing in  third countries or signed directly off the island (not including players who came over as kids and went into the high school and college system like Rafael Palmeiro and Jose Canseco).  His .306/.355/.569 offensive line
with 34 HR's and 108 RBI's and .924 OPS with the Los Angeles Angels surpassed the magical (.300-30-100) which is a benchmark for excellent average and power hitters.  This lofty mark is a challenge to the current crop of Cuban sluggers like Yasiel Puig, Jose Abreu and Yoenis Cespedes.

Kendrys Morales in 2009 with Angels  (nydailynews.com)

The great Tony Oliva never hit more than 32 HR's nor had more than 107 RBI's in any season.  The left handed hitting Twins outfielder won batting championships in 1964 (.323) and 1965 (.321) his first two years in MLB.

Tony Oliva in 1962  (ootpdevelopment.com)

We have to go to Hall of Famer Tony Perez, of the "Big Red Machine" in Cincinnati who in 1970 hit .317/.401/.589 with 40 HR's and 129 RBI's to find a better year than Morales' and he did it only once in his distinguished 23 year career. 

Tony Perez in 1964   (wordpress.com)

Another great Cuban player, Orestes Minoso, had some fabulous seasons in the 50's with the Chicago White Sox and the Cleveland Indians but never produced a Morales year.  He had less power but was an OB% machine with speed and a flashy crowd pleaser.  He had 814 walks and 584 career strikeouts in 7712 plate appearances. From 1951 to 1955 Orestes had the following walks to strikeouts per season:
                     BB        K
1951             72         42
1952             71         46
1953             74         43
1954             77         46
1955             76         43
Talk about fabulous consistency for the "Cuban Comet".
He finished with career numbers of .298/.389/.459.

Orestes Minoso in 1952   (sporting news archives.com)

After taking a walk down memory lane we have to recognize Kendrys Morales 2009 season as a high mark for hitting excellence for Cuban free agents.  He is where he belongs, swinging the bat again.

 

FRIAR MALAISE

With about 40% of the regular MLB season in the books (63/162) the San Diego Padres are experiencing an offensive malaise that affects almost the whole team.  7 of the 10 players with 100+ AB's are racking up surprisingly bad numbers:
                                                            AB       AVG      WAR
Everth Cabrera       SS      254       .232       -0.3
Will Venable           OF      177       .203       -0.2
Yonder Alonso        IB       205       .210       -0.1
Alexi Amarista         IF       105       .200       -0.1
Yasmani Grandal    C        120       .183        0.0
Chase Headley      3B       159       .195        0.4
Jedd Gyorko          2B        204      .162       -1.1
                                         1224      .200       -1.4   

The entire Padres infield plus Amarista (utility) and Venable (a semi regular outfielder) is collectively at the "Mendoza Line" in over 1200 AB's and the group comes up with a negative offensive WAR (-1.4) .  This means they're playing below replacement level and perhaps a team of AAA players could come up and do as good or better.  San Diego ranks last (30) in offensive WAR (1.7) behind the Phillies who have 2.8.  Petco Park is not a hitter's park despite some recent adjustments to make it more hitter friendly.  The offense is .219/.278/.342 at home and .216/.275/.352 on the road showing no real difference saying the offense is just really bad.  Some of these hitters have a better track record but they have been up and down showing little consistency.  Saving face for Padres offense is Oakland import Seth Smith (.301/.402/.532  1.8 WAR) and Cameron Maybin with .291/.330/.405  .9 WAR.
 

Seth Smith the only very good offensive Padre  (zimbio.com)

The Padres are a small market team with limited payroll (86 million) that seems willing to sign relatively small affordable contract extensions to provide some stability but no one is stepping up.  They did with Gyorko after a promising 2013 (6/35.5M) but they'll have to wait to reap benefits as Gyorko has tanked this year.
GM Josh Byrnes and Sr. VP of Baseball Operations, Omar Minaya, the first Hispanic GM with the Expos in 2002 and later with a bad tenure in New York with the Mets (2005-2010), have a lot of work to do here and steer the team in the right direction.

With a 28-35 record the defense and pitching is keeping San Diego alive while they wait for the offense to click.

According to Fangraphs, Everth Cabrera, the Padres SS is rolling along the bottom of the MLB SS rankings at 29th out of 30 with a -.3 WAR only ahead of Andrew Romine of the Tigers with a -.6 WAR.  Last year he was top 10 in MLB and top 5 in the NL.
This was supposed to be a consolidating year for Cabrera to prove to Padres brass that he was worth keeping as a valuable top of the order hitter with great base running skills.  Everth is not alone as there is a list of MLB shortstops (10 of 30) that are negative or hovering just above replacement level:
Negative:   Everth Cabrera (-.3) Andrew Romine (-.6) Adeiny 
                  Hechavarria (-.2)
Zero Value:Yunel Escobar, Brad Miller, Ruben Tejada, Jordy 
                   Mercer.
Hovering: Derek Jeter (0.1) Jonathan Villar (0.1) Jean Segura (0.2)

Everth Cabrera after a strikeout in Washington  (zimbio.com)

Cabrera's .232 average and .264 OB% is not acceptable as a table setter after a .283/.355 line in 2013.  His walk rate has dropped (9.4 to 4.1%) and is strikeout rate has skyrocketed (15.9 to 23.1%) while his 12 stolen bases in 18 attempts (66%) is bad.  Everth has a contact problem dropping from 86.3 to 79.8% especially out of the strike zone 71 to 62.1%.  Less contact and few walks is a bad formula for small ball players.  He is swinging at more pitches out of the strike zone (24.6 to 29.6%) showing less plate discipline.  A lot of stuff wrong with Cabrera at a time when he should be making strides to secure a nice multi year contract.  He is a hard worker and there is still time to right the ship. 

CIENFUEGOS TO CHICAGO

Jose Abreu, of the Chicago White Sox is leading MLB rookies in HR's (17), RBI's (47) and OPS (.900).  The 27 year old Cuban first baseman has made a nice transition from Cienfuegos to Chicago.  Hailed as the ultra offensive player coming out of Cuba, Abreu played a lot of baseball (10 seasons) with the Cienfuegos Elephants (3183 plate appearances) so he knows his way around the batters box.  His last 4 years were his best (ages 23 to 26).  The first 2 years (Serie Nacional 49 and 50) were played with the Japanese Mizuno 150 baseball (a ball so lively it seemed to have 2 rabbits inside) and the last 2 years (Serie Nacional 51 and 52) due to the league-wide offensive onslaught were played with the Mizuno 200 baseball (1 rabbit inside) and adjusting the pitching mound from 10 to 15 inches high to try to balance offense and pitching.

Jose Abreu at Minute Maid Park in Houston  (zimbio.com)

His combined line for the last 4 years was the following:
  PA       AB     avg    slg       HR   ab/hr   BB      K      HBP
1407   1044    .390   .815     117     8.9    261     160     90

His current MLB line is as follows:

214      196     .255   .592      17     11.5    12       59      4

Abreu was a prolific average and power hitter in Cuba with a lot more walks than strikeouts, and a great ab/hr ratio plus a considerable number of hit by pitches trying to pitch him inside.  So far his numbers have translated with a 27% decline in his slugging%, 29% in his home run ratio and 35% in his batting average. His batting average and on base % are around league average while his slugging and power numbers are very good.  His walks to strikeout ratio is awful going from 1.63 walks for each strikeout in Cuba to .20, (5 strikeouts for each walk).  On June 7 he wore his first "golden sombrero" (4 strikeouts in a game) against the Angels in Anaheim.  

Jose Abreu is a good hitter with a lot of power.  He is in the best shape of his career.  He will feast on comfort velocity pitches (85-93 mph) and comfort location pitches (center cut down and areas where he can get his arms extended).  He shows an advanced approach to hitting going to all fields.  He has 17 hits to LF, 23 to CF and 10 to RF.  He also likes the home cooking hitting .305 at US Cellular in Chicago in 82 AB and .219 in 114 AB on the road.

Jose Abreu vs Athletics in Oakland  (zimbio.com)

As the "book" develops on Abreu, the adjustment period is in full swing.  The 2014 season will be a baseline for future comparisons. 

PLANTAIN POWER

During the 2013 World Baseball Classic (WBC), Fernando Rodney (7 saves in 8 games, 7.1 IP, 1 hit and 8 K's) carried around a plantain for good luck calling it "Plantain Power".  I don't think luck had anything to do with the Dominican Republic team steamrolling the competition to an undefeated 8-0 record for the championship.
The plantain, a brother to the banana, is a great tropical fruit and a staple of the Dominican and Latin cuisine.

Two members of that 2013 WBC team, Nelson Cruz of the Baltimore Orioles and Edwin Encarnacion of the Toronto Blue Jays are in a power surge with a barrage of long balls rarely seen.

Thirty three year old Nelson Cruz is leading MLB in HR (20), RBI's (52) and slugging (.672).  Coming off a 50 game PED suspension in 2013, the OF/DH became a free agent hoping to land a multi-year contract but finding no takers signed a 1year 8 million deal with Baltimore.  Earlier in his career Cruz provided value with his good speed, average defense and power bat:
                   avg/obp/slg        WAR
2009       .260/.332/.524        3.0
2010       .318/.374/.516        4.9
 

Nelson Cruz vs Indians at Orioles Park May 2014  (getty images.com)

In 2011, 2012 and 2013 Cruz had WAR's of 1.3, 1.1 and 1.3 getting a reputation as an aging OF losing speed, defense and some power. This year's line of .314/.384/.672 and 2.3 WAR with 7 HR's in April and 13 in May has put him back on the map as a good value player. This is the same guy that has hit 33, 22, 29, 24 and 27 HR's the last five years.  In the 2011 post season against the Detroit Tigers, Cruz hit 6 HR's with 13 RBI's in 6 games.  I think we can say the "boomstick" is alive and well in Baltimore.

Thirty one year old Edwin Encarnacion just tied an AL HR record for May with 16 sharing it with the legendary Hall of Famer Mickey Mantle of the New York Yankees who won the triple crown in 1956.  Encarnacion finished May with 130 plate appearances, 32 hits, 33 RBI's, 16 walks and 16 K's to go along with the long
balls.  He also chipped in with 5 multi homer games tying him with HOFer Harmon Killebrew and Albert Belle.  Encarnacion is second in the AL in HR's (19), RBI's (50) and slugging (.615) only behind Nelson Cruz.

Edwin Encarnacion homering vs KC Royals at Rogers Centre (zimbio.com)

 

Mickey Mantle in 1956  (mickeymantle.com)

Encarnacion is another Latin late bloomer as his early years in Toronto were not indicative of things to come:
                     avg/obp/slg         WAR
2010         .244/.305/.482         1.6
2011         .272/.334/.453         1.1

Since 2012 his power has exploded:
                     avg/obp/slg         WAR  HR
2012         .280/.384/.557         4.1     42
2013         .272/.370/.534         4.1     36
2014         .271/.359/.615         2.4     19

Encarnacion is leading the Blue Jays to first place in the tough AL East (34-24 record)despite last place predictions by "experts".  Edwin has a team friendly contract (3 yrs/29 M) for 2013-2015 plus a team option (10.0 M) for 2016.  He plays at the launchpad at Rogers Centre where he's hit 12 of his 19 bombs.  In this era of high strikeout totals he's one of the few sluggers under 100 K's/season:
                 BB       K
2012         84        94
2013         82        62
2014         29        41

Stats courtesy of Fangraphs and Baseball Reference.

DEE GORDON (V.2) WEAPONIZED

Dee Gordon arrived in Los Angeles in 2011 posting a good .304/.325/.362 line in 233 plate appearances. In 2012, the 26 year old could not hit his way out of a paper bag and played bad defense at SS missing out on a good opportunity.  Gordon was sent down for most of 2013, returning in spring 2014 with a change of position (2B), a challenge (Alexander Guerrero) and something to prove. This second version (v.2) of Dee Gordon is much improved using his speed and the stolen base as a weapon to impact games in a way reminiscent of the great base stealers of the past. His MLB leading 30 stolen bases in 33 attempts (91%) would make Bill James proud. This pace puts him around 100 for the season.

Dee Gordon stealing against Padres in San Diego  (zimbio.com)

Someone said Dee Gordon was a "poor man's" Billy Hamilton.  So far it's the other way around with Gordon leaving Hamilton (18 SB in 24 attempts- 75%) in the dust in SB totals and efficiency. Fangraphs says he is 3rd in WAR for National League second basemen with 1.4 only behind Chase Utley of the Phillies (2.2) and Daniel Murphy of the Mets (1.5).

Dee Gordon and Billy Hamilton of the Reds might bring back an era of the great and daring base stealer.  Great disrupters of the game causing pitchers, catchers and infielders to be very uneasy. Everyone and their dog knows they're stealing when they get on. The challenge is to dare to stop them.  

Billy Hamilton streaking to first vs Padres at Cincy  (zimbio.com0

Since 1988 no one has stolen more than 80 bases (Vince Coleman with 81 and Rickey Henderson with 93).  80 is a number that puts you on the steps, 90 takes you to the edge and 100 puts you in the "magic circle" with Maury Wills (104 in 1962- 6 SB titles), Lou Brock (118 in 1974- 8 titles), Vince Coleman (109 in 1985, 107 in 1986 and 110 in 1987- 6 SB titles) and the greatest of them all, Rickey Henderson (100 in 1980, 130 in 1982 and 108 in 1983-12 SB titles).  Special mention to modern era trailblazers like Luis Aparicio of the 1959 Go Go Sox (9 SB titles),  Bert Campaneris of the Oakland Athletics with 6 SB titles in the 1960's and Tim Raines of the Montreal Expos with 4 SB titles in the 1980's keeping the running game alive.

Rickey Henderson stealing vs Orioles in 1983  (mlb.com)

Another era of great base stealers that can enter the "magic circle" is at hand.  The conditions are there.

MONEYBALL MAESTRO

The Oakland Athletics keep on winning.  Playing in the shadow of the San Francisco Giants (World Series titles in 2010 and 2012) and the free spending Los Angeles Dodgers, the A's have managed to dominate the AL West since 2012 and have only been stopped twice by Justin Verlander and the Detroit Tigers in critical games of the 2012 and 2013 postseasons in their quest to reach the World Series.  No team has won more games to date (220) than the Athletics since 2012.  With 94 wins in 2012 and 96 in 2013 they are on pace this year for 101.  They keep rolling despite missing 2 key members of the starting rotation to Tommy John surgery for the 2014 season (Jarrod Parker and AJ Griffin).  

Billy Beane at Detroit 2013   (zimbio.com)

Billy Beane, the "Moneyball Maestro" runs a tight ship and makes few mistakes signing solid cost efficient players and Manager Bob Melvin makes a lot of right moves on the field leading to astounding success at a relatively low cost.  To do this one year might be a fluke but the repeatability takes it to another level.

Bob Melvin in Chicage 2014    (zimbio.com)

Fangraphs says the A's team WAR (9.4) is only second to the Los Angeles Angels 12.1 despite having a line that looks similar to the Chicago White Sox:
                     PA        RS      HR      avg/obp/slg      WAR
Oakland      1919      245     50     .252/.339/.408     9.4
Chicago      1926      243     54     .261/.324/.415     5.3

With a walk rate of 11.1% (1st in the AL) compared to the 7.9% of the Chisox that makes for about 190 more walks for the season with a much lower strikeout rate (22.9 to 17.8%) giving them a lot more opportunities to keep the offense rolling.  The A's defense is also rated above average.

With no real star players on the team, Josh Donaldson has become their best player.  Here are the numbers since 2012:
                                      PA      HR      WAR   PA/HR
Yoenis Cespedes        1298       57        6.1      22.8
Brandon Moss              988       62        6.3      15.9
Josh Donaldson          1179       43      11.8      27.4

Josh Donaldson vs Indians    (zimbio.com)

Moss and Cespedes provide a nice quota of power with Moss being relatively unknown.  

Brandon Moss vs Mariners at Oakland  (zimbio.com)

The pitching ERA is 2.88, the best in the AL with a 6.6 WAR, 3rd best despite a bullpen that has only 9 saves (league low is 8) has lost 9 games and has blown another 8 saves (league high).  No starting pitcher with 40 + IP has an ERA over 4.00 with Sonny Gray the leader at 1.99, Jesse Chavez at 2.54 and Scott Kazmir at 2.56.  These three have a 14-5 combined record.  There should be some regression here as the season goes along.  Jim Johnson, the 10.0 million dollar closer is the worst pitcher on the team with 25 hits and 13 walks in 19 IP and a 6.63 ERA.  The track record is there to keep waiting for a return to form.

Sony Gray vs Tigers 2013   (zimbio.com)

Despite the A's payroll spiking some this year, they still remain in the bottom 4 of the AL.  The cost of doing business has increased league wide.
2012   59.5 M (15th)    2013    68.6 M (13th)     2014   83.4 M (12)

Comparing to what the Los Angeles Dodgers have spent
                   $                  W
2012       129.0 M          86
2013       220.4              92
2014       235.3              86 (projected)
Total       584.7            264
During the same time period the Athletics will spend 211.5 million and get close to 290 wins.
It will cost the Dodgers almost three times as much to win a game. Moneyball seems to be alive and well for those that want to embrace it.

Top 5 paid players A's                    Top 5 paid pitchers

Yoenis Cespedes      10.5                 Jim Johnson     10.0
Coco Crisp                 7.5                  Scott Kazmir       7.0
Jed Lowrie                 5.2                 Luke Gregerson   5.1
Alberto Callaspo        4.9                  Jesse Chavez      0.8
Brandon Moss            4.1                  Sonny Gray        0.5

Josh Donaldson is paid .5 million for 2014