It's difficult to consistently project player performance, but that is what a few smart guys are doing with their "projection systems". Marcel, ZiPs, Oliver, PECOTA and Steamer are the main systems out there right now. They're all pretty good with some being a little better at certain things. We'll use the "Steamer" system for our projections.
The Cuban pipeline continues to move players from the island nation to MLB. Seems like on a monthly basis players are making the jump across the Florida Straits. From the major-league ready players like Jose Abreu (6/68M), Yoennis Cespedes (4/36M) and Alexei Ramirez (4/32.5) who have provided good value with their performance and contracts to current high profile newcomers like Yasmany Tomas (6/68.5) and Rusney Castillo (7/72.5),who have benefited from their above predecessors to younger players like Roberto Baldoquin (8.0M), Yoan Lopez (8.25M) and the soon to be signed Yoan Moncada who have entered the International Draft signing for above market bonuses. Even the almost 30 year old Hector Olivera, a fine second baseman in Cuba has made the jump. It will be interesting to see how the market reacts to the very talented infielder who was plagued by injuries the last couple years. In between there are lower level players like 25 year old OF Dian Toscano quietly signing with the Braves (4yrs/6.0M). With this mixed pool of players, MLB organizations are jumping at the opportunity to sign "the next great Cuban player". One thing is for sure, a lot of the "cream" has been skimmed off the top of the talent pool in Cuba.
There are 9 established Cuban position players in MLB. This is what the "Steamer" system projects for them in 2015. Here's a few comments on players in the table below.
(wRC+ is an estimate of offensive value corrected for ballpark and league. 100 is league average, above is better, below is less than average).
Jose Abreu: Great 2014 season hitting for power and average. Some regression expected this year. Not the "sophomore jinx" but some league adjustments. Very good approach going to all fields. Needs to pick up his defensive game when on 1st base. Adam LaRoche is a much better fielder so he might see more time at DH. In his "prime" years, so good production is expected.
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| Yasiel Puig robbing Pedro Ciriaco and CF Andre Eithie |
Yasiel Puig: The best Cuban player by projected WAR (5.1). Right there offensively with Abreu (147 to 143). Playing under control he can contribute in all aspects of the game. Improved strike zone judgement in 2014. Still developing. Rated 3rd best CF in MLB behind Andrew McCutchen and Mike Trout. Very strong but not a typical power hitter, strong gap hitter with great speed. Should develop power with more experience. Love him or hate him he's always exciting.
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| Yasiel Puig bat flip vs Cardinals |
Leonys Martin: A below average hitter (93) but a very good defensive game and excellent base running. If offense improves to average or better can be a very good player. Needs to improve his OBP. In his prime, so improvement is expected.
Alexei Ramirez: Ramirez had a bounce-back season, but at 33 and at SS should start to slip some more. A steady defender and good base running the last few years have increased his value. Rated 8th best SS in MLB for 2014. On paper the Chisox look like a solid team this year. His contributions will be very important.
Adeiny Hechavarria: Controversial. Loved by the scouts and the Marlins but not well liked by the Sabermetric community. Numbers similar to Jose Iglesias but Iglesias considered a much better defensive player. Adeiny makes spectacular plays but he must also make all the routine plays and not lose concentration on defense. Still young with lot of room for improvement.
Yunel Escobar: Escobar really tanked in 2014. Did not hit and stunk defensively contributing to negative numbers. Might bounce back this year. Until last year he had the edge on Alexei as the better SS. With bad numbers and a "basket case" in the locker room, Escobar, at 32 is in a dangerous phase of his career.
Jose Iglesias: Lost all of 2014 to injuries but with a favorable impression from 2013, Iglesias is seen as a key to the Tigers infield defense. Makes spectacular plays and all the routine plays. Doesn't have to hit much to be valuable. A year off shouldn't affect the 25 yr old SS. Should form a very good keystone combo with Ian Kinsler.
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| Jose Iglesias turning two with Dustin Pedroia |
Dayan Viciedo: Will lose playing time this year to Melky Cabrera, Adam Eaton and Avisail Garcia in the Chisox outfield. Hit .213 the 2nd half of 2014 after starting April with .348. Was very bad defensively. Might be exiting Chicago soon. Young enough to catch on somewhere else. Has good power.
| NAME | AGE | AVG-HR-RBI | OBP-SLG | wRC+ | WAR | 2015 SAL |
| Jose Abreu | 28 | .283/34/98 | .355/.530 | 143 | 3.7 | 7.0 |
| Yasiel Puig | 24 | .294/22/74 | .373/.495 | 147 | 5.1 | 4.5 |
| Yoennis Cespedes | 29 | .268/24/86 | .319/.467 | 118 | 3.1 | 10.5 |
| Leonys Martin | 27 | .264/10/56 | .318/.387 | 93 | 2.3 | 3.8 |
| Alexei Ramirez | 33 | .265/11/63 | .300/.379 | 87 | 2.3 | 10.0 |
| Adeiny Hechavarria | 26 | .248/4/48 | .288/.335 | 82 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Yunel Escobar | 32 | .258/7/39 | .324/.351 | 96 | 1.8 | 5.0 |
| Jose Iglesias | 25 | .257/5/45 | .304/.341 | 81 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| Dayan Viciedo | 26 | .251/9/28 | .298/.424 | 103 | 0.2 | 2.8 |
