YANKEE PRIDE?

The New York Yankees could be in danger of missing the playoffs for the third straight year. The first time this would happen since 1995.  The signature franchise of MLB, often likened to an "empire" is not in a good place.  Lackluster performance on the field and a lukewarm front office doesn't fit the "Yankee Tradition" of winning and exhibiting strong star power.

New York Yankees GM Brian Cashman  (cbslocal.com)

The Yankees don't look crisp and are a little slow and out of step. With an aging core of injury prone star players like Alex Rodriguez (39), Carlos Beltran (38), Mark Teixeira (35), CC Sabathia (34), the 2015 season doesn't look good.  They might as well be walking on eggshells. Declining skills coupled with persistent injuries take a toll on performance.  The only player under 30 in the regular lineup is SS Didi Gregorius at 25.  This is Didi's 3rd team in 4 years so I don't think he'll be a fixture in NY.  A middle of the order lineup of Rodriguez, Beltran and Teixeira is not a good thing, especially versus good pitching.

Mark Teixeira NY Yankees first baseman  (nbcsports.com)

New York's projected 2015 payroll is 216.5 million, second in MLB only behind the Monopoly-like money the Los Angeles Dodgers are spending with 279.0 M.  Besides this payroll they will pay a luxury tax (any payroll above 189.0 M must pay a tax to try to constrain the richer teams from outspending lower revenue teams) which is calculated with a complicated formula.  The Dodgers get to the postseason, the Yankees get no bang for their buck. At the Major League level the resources haven't been well allocated.  The Mets might be the best team in town this year.

Jacoby Ellsbury NY centerfielder  (planetminecraft.com)

The best Yankee players are Jacoby Ellsbury (31) with a 2014, 3.9 WAR and Brett Gardner (31) with 3.3.  Gardner is barely known outside his place of residence.  One of the Yankee advantages at the Stadium is they can field a team with 8 left handed hitters to take advantage of the short RF porch.  They can be the "Bronx Bombers" at home.  Away from Yankee Stadium it will be difficult. The Yankee bullpen features two of the best relievers in baseball in hard-throwing RHP Delin Betances and LHP Andrew Miller.  The braintrust hasn't figured out who will be the closer and if Masahiro Tanaka will be throwing less four seamers this year to protect his elbow.

Emblematic Yankees Logo   (screensavers.com)

The organization has a very good farm system. If they develop local talent and sign young impact free agents they can get good in a hurry.  With the second highest average ticket price per game in MLB ( over $50) only behind the Red Sox, the Yankee faithful will continue grumbling this year. Some fans commented they didn't like the 2.3 billion New Yankee Stadium that opened in 2009.  I wouldn't either if my team wasn't winning and the year ahead looked bleak.  George Steinbrenner was abrasive at times but he understood the "Yankee mystique".

Firebaling Matt Harvey in 2013  (wordpress.com

During the New York Mets 2015 spring training, Zack Wheeler (24), a fastballing RHP with a lot of upside and Josh Edgin (28) a left handed bullpen specialist, underwent Tommy John surgery.  At the same time, Matt Harvey, the 25 yr old ace of the staff and 30 year old Bobby Parnell, the staff closer, were coming back from TJ surgery from the year before.  Four key pieces of a 12 man staff in about 14 months is alarming and is part of the recent epidemic of TJ surgeries touching starters, relievers, young pitchers, veteran pitchers across the board.  

A baseball seams tattoo over a TJ surgery scar  courtesy of Kyle Blanks

The American Sports Medicine Institute founded by orthopedic surgeon, Dr. James Andrews, in Alabama is at the forefront of the research on TJ. The Institute along with other stakeholders like MLB, trainers,pitchers and executives are trying to find the root causes of the problem.  ASMI performs a lot of the surgeries and track recovery time and effectiveness.  Success rate now is above 80% and recovery time is about 14-16 months.  Some early research suggests a lot of the problems start during the early years and carry over to college and the pros.  Pitch Smart is a guideline by MLB outlining risk factors, TJ questions and guidance for parents, players and coaches at the youth level to protect against overuse injuries during the development years.

MLB NEWS

Opening Night in MLB is Sunday, April 5th, with the Saint Louis Cardinals visiting the Chicago Cubs. With players and fans getting antsy for the 2015 season to begin, the long awaited "play ball" will continue on Monday, April 6th, with a full slate of games.  
There was a time when the traditional "Opening Day" game was played on Mondays in Cincinnati with the ceremonial first pitch of the season thrown there and then around the rest of the league. Cincinnati is recognized as the first pro baseball team and opening day in the "Queen City" was and is a real baseball holiday with parades and other ceremonies. I remember skipping school on some opening days, without my parents consent, just to listen to Reds' radio broadcasts of the start of a new season.  Huge TV contracts, one of the cash cows and most important revenue streams for MLB, have changed the old format and now the Sunday Night Opening Game is the "new normal".                                                            

Opening Day in Cincy at Great American Ballpark  (mlb.com)

There's been a few Tommy John surgeries performed this Spring Training, but not as many as last year.  Yu Darvish, Zach Wheeler, Josh Edgin and Tim Collins are the most notable. Cliff Lee, chose rehab as a TJ procedure would almost certainly be career ending for the 36 year old southpaw.  A prime candidate for TJ surgery is Masahiro Tanaka of the Yankees.  With some time taken off last year because of elbow and UCL (Ulnar Collateral Ligament) problems and diminished performance after returning, all eyes are on Tanaka. There is a lot of mileage on that arm. Pitching in Japan for 7 seasons (1315 innings) since he was 18 and never logging less than 155 innings in any season plus the postseason is a heavy workload. The 26 year old Tanaka, managed only 136 IP with the Yankess in 2014. Throwing split-finger fastballs (25%) and sliders (22.2%) almost half of the time doesn't bode well for a delicate elbow.  The demands of a Major League pitching ace are great and if there is a real problem it will show up sooner than later.

Masahiro Tanaka and the split finger fastball. March 2014  (zimbio.com)

The free-spending Los Angeles Dodgers are without Hanley Ramirez and Matt Kemp this year, two of their best power hitters. 24 year old Yasiel Puig showed a modicum of maturity last year and will need to step up and fill some of that vacuum.  The much talked about Puig, be it good or bad, will have to continue to polish his considerable tools and become a bona fide star player to fulfill expectations.  Puig hit .274/.366/.414 after the 2014 All Star game with 4 HR's and 17 RBI's in 215 at bats, hardly numbers consistent with elite production.  With only Adrian "The Titan" Gonzalez left over from last year's power hitting group, Puig will have to hit and hit with more power.  He has to grow up and prove he's the "real deal". 


The 2014 World Series champion, San Franciso Giants, have been known to exceed expectations and confound experts predictions to win 3 championships in the last 5 years (2010-2012-2014)  This is very, very hard to do.  They've played a lot of close games and have a knack for winning the big game, especially in the post season.  This year's pitching staff, aside from Madison Bumgarner, the World Series ace, has a chance to be the worst starting pitching the Giants have had in years.  Jake Peavy (34), Tim Hudson (39), Ryan Vogelsong (37), Tim Lincecum (31), and Matt Cain (30) are not a group that inspires confidence for a postseason push.  Peavy has been very inconsistent and injury prone, Hudson is old and the once powerful sinker is not as effective, Vogelsong is aging and very inconsistent, Lincecum, is not "The Freak" anymore and has been so bad he might go to the bullpen.  Washed up at 31? He's lost about 5-6 miles off his fastball.  Cain, once the workhorse, is now throwing 91-92 when he threw 95 consistently with a killer slider. Still young, can he salvage his career? With these enormous question marks the Giants bullpen might be in for a long year. AT&T Park favors pitchers but with this group it will be difficult to "read the tea leaves" in San Francisco.  Bruce Bochy is known for his deft handling of pitching staffs, but I think this will be one of those head scratching years.

Head scratching year for Bruce Bochy  (zimbio.com)

NAME	AGE	HOME		AWAY
Tim Hudson	39	89	3.94	100	3.23
Ryan Vogelsong	37	100	3.06	85	5.10
Jake Peavy	34	101	2.85	101	4.60
Tim Lincecum	31	94	3.91	61	6.02
Matt Cain	30	47	3.64	43	4.78
The Home and Away columns feature IP and ERA

Tim Hudson was better on the road, but the others were awful away from AT&T Park last year.  With the aging factor, injuries and inconsistency, 2015 might be even worse.

SERIE DEL CARIBE

From February 2-8, the Serie del Caribe (Caribbean Series) will be played in host country Puerto Rico at Hiram Bithorn Stadium.  The four winter league champions from Venezuela, Mexico, Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico will be joined by the Cuban League Serie Nacional champion to play the 57th edition of this important regional baseball tournament.  It's "fiesta time" for baseball fans in these countries.  For baseball lovers all over, a good quality tournament in February is a real treat.

Recent tournaments have seen Mexico, once considered the "Cinderella", winning 3 of the last 4 ( 2011, 2012 and 2014) with Dominican Republic the champ in 2013.  Last year's Series featured very few Major League players with champion Mexico not having any current major leaguers on their roster.  Teams like Venezuela and Dominican Republic don't bulk up with star power so it's not an elite tournament but still very competitive.  Last year the Cuban entry, Villa Clara, seemed over matched at times. This year the Pinar del Rio team has 17 reinforcements to make it look like the Cuban National Team.

Some time ago the 'Serie del Caribe" went through tough financial times.  In 1990 and 1991 it was played in Miami.  The 1990 series was organized by Rick Horrow, a sports venture CEO, and played at the Orange Bowl, resulting in a complete disaster.  The playing field had about a 270 foot left field and the playing surface was in bad shape.  Edgar Martinez, Omar Vizquel, Geronimo Berrroa, Moises Alou were some of the stars that participated.  Felipe Alou led the Dominican team to victory.  The 1991 version of the series was played at Bobby Maduro Stadium and changed it's name to Winterball 1.  Though better than 1990, it still was not a success.  We saw players like Geronimo Berroa, Henry Rodriguez, Melido Perez , Luis Gonzalez and Andujar Cedeño.  The Dominicans also won this time under manager John Roseboro.  Geronimo Berroa was the MVP both years.  I attended all the games both years and while being impressed with the quality of some players, I was very disappointed with the organization and marketing of the event.  Something as important as this Series deserved much better.
 

Mays, Clemente, Buster Clarkson, Bob Thurman, George Crowe  Santurce 1955

There was a time when a lot of big name players took part in these tournaments. Hall of Famers,Willie Mays and Roberto Clemente played in the same outfield for the "Cangrejeros de Santurce" in 1955 at the Universitario de Caracas in Venezuela where they won the Series.  Mays started slow (0 for 13) but then caught fire going 11 for 13 to make the All Star team. The 24 year old Mays was coming off a year of .345 average with 41 HR's and 110 RBI's for the New York Giants in 1954.  Clemente, 20 years old at the time hit a modest .267 and did not make the series All Star team.  He was just establishing himself.  The Series MVP was SS Don Zimmer who hit 3 HR's.  The recently passed Zimmer was on his way to becoming one of the great baseball persons of our time.  Affectionately known as "Popeye", Zimmer was player, field coach, manager and bench coach.  He never drew a paycheck in his life that was not baseball related spanning 65 years.

The great Willie Mays homering at the Universitario de Caracas in 1955  (gettyimages)

The 1995 Senadores de San Juan that represented Puerto Rico in the 95 Series at Hiram Bithorn Stadium is the best collection of
baseball talent to put foot on a Caribbean Series diamond.  The all native Puerto Rican "Dream Team", demolished the opposition outscoring them 49-15 and going undefeated. Rey Sanchez, the regular season batting champion, hit 9th on this star-studded team.  Carlos Delgado C, Carmelo Martinez IB, Roberto Alomar 2B, Carlos Baerga 3B, Rey Sanchez SS, Juan "Igor" Gonzalez LF, Bernie Williams CF, Ruben Sierra RF and Edgar Martinez DH formed this fearsome 9.  Twenty years ago they made Puerto Rico very proud.  This group of players totaled 36 All Star appearances in the Major Leagues.  Only Carmelo Martinez and Rey Sanchez did not make any All Star team despite being good players.

Alomar, Carmelo, Edgar, Sanchez, Sierra, Baerga, Williams, Gonzalez, Delgado ( Dream Team 1995)

This is the same Hiram Bithorn Stadium where Javy Lopez hit a walk off HR off Omar Ajete of the Cuban National Team in 1993 carrying the Senadores de San Juan to a 4-3 victory.  The Cubans had manhandled amateur opposition and this showed that a different dog was in the fight. 

Miguel Tejada, the Bus Driver.

With today's average annual MLB salary around 3.7 million, there is no incentive for players to participate and for organizations to risk their investment in these tournaments.  Miguel Tejada, is one of the few players, even in his prime that was willing to always participate in the winter league and in this tournament.  Called "pelotero de la patria" he is also known as the "bus driver" for when he found men on base he always took them home.

Two of the young players to keep an eye on are:  Maikel Franco of the Dominican team who should soon be playing in Philadelphia and Javier Baez of Puerto Rico, one of the new wave coming to the Chicago Cubs. Baez has scandalous power but a high swing and miss rate.


 

PROJECTING THE CUBANS 2015

It's difficult to consistently project player performance, but that is what a few smart guys are doing with their "projection systems".  Marcel, ZiPs, Oliver, PECOTA and Steamer are the main systems out there right now.  They're all pretty good with some being a little better at certain things.  We'll use the "Steamer" system for our projections.

The Cuban pipeline continues to move players from the island nation to MLB.  Seems like on a monthly basis players are making the jump across the Florida Straits.  From the major-league ready players like Jose Abreu (6/68M), Yoennis Cespedes (4/36M) and Alexei Ramirez (4/32.5) who have provided good value with their performance and contracts to current high profile newcomers like Yasmany Tomas (6/68.5) and Rusney Castillo (7/72.5),who have benefited from their above predecessors to younger players like Roberto Baldoquin (8.0M), Yoan Lopez (8.25M) and the soon to be signed Yoan Moncada who have entered the International Draft signing for above market bonuses.  Even the almost 30 year old Hector Olivera, a fine second baseman in Cuba has made the jump.  It will be interesting to see how the market reacts to the very talented infielder who was plagued by injuries the last couple years.  In between there are lower level players like 25 year old OF Dian Toscano quietly signing with the Braves (4yrs/6.0M).  With this mixed pool of players, MLB organizations are jumping at the opportunity to sign "the next great Cuban player".  One thing is for sure, a lot of the "cream" has been skimmed off the top of the talent pool in Cuba.

There are 9 established Cuban position players in MLB.  This is what the "Steamer" system projects for them in 2015.  Here's a few comments on players in the table below.
(wRC+ is an estimate of offensive value corrected for ballpark and league.  100 is league average, above is better, below is less than average).

Jose Abreu:  Great 2014 season hitting for power and average.  Some regression expected this year.  Not the "sophomore jinx" but some league adjustments.  Very good approach going to all fields. Needs to pick up his defensive game when on 1st base.  Adam LaRoche is a much better fielder so he might see more time at DH.  In his "prime" years, so good production is expected.

Yasiel Puig robbing Pedro Ciriaco and CF Andre Eithie

Yasiel Puig:  The best Cuban player by projected WAR (5.1).  Right there offensively with Abreu (147 to 143).  Playing under control he can contribute in all aspects of the game.  Improved strike zone judgement in 2014.  Still developing.  Rated 3rd best CF in MLB behind Andrew McCutchen and Mike Trout.  Very strong but not a typical power hitter, strong gap hitter with great speed.  Should develop power with more experience.  Love him or hate him he's always exciting. 

Yasiel Puig bat flip vs Cardinals

Yoennis Cespedes:  A step below Abreu and Puig offensively but with "tools" to help on defense and on the bases.  I expect some defensive regression in Comerica Park.  Should benefit offensively just by watching Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez, two of the very best.  Contract year.  Has not been able to repeat rookie season numbers.  Seems to be too pull-conscious most of the time.

Leonys Martin:  A below average hitter (93) but a very good defensive game and excellent base running.  If offense improves to average or better can be a very good player.  Needs to improve his OBP.  In his prime, so improvement is expected.

Alexei Ramirez:  Ramirez had a bounce-back season, but at 33 and at SS should start to slip some more.  A steady defender and good base running the last few years have increased his value.  Rated 8th best SS in MLB for 2014.  On paper the Chisox look like a solid team this year.  His contributions will be very important.

Adeiny Hechavarria:  Controversial.  Loved by the scouts and the Marlins but not well liked by the Sabermetric community.  Numbers similar to Jose Iglesias but Iglesias considered a much better defensive player.  Adeiny makes spectacular plays but he must also make all the routine plays and not lose concentration on defense.  Still young with lot of room for improvement.

Yunel Escobar:  Escobar really tanked in 2014.  Did not hit and stunk defensively contributing to negative numbers.  Might bounce back this year.  Until last year he had the edge on Alexei as the better SS.  With bad numbers and a "basket case" in the locker room, Escobar, at 32 is in a dangerous phase of his career.

Jose Iglesias:  Lost all of 2014 to injuries but with a favorable impression from 2013, Iglesias is seen as a key to the Tigers infield defense.  Makes spectacular plays and all the routine plays.  Doesn't have to hit much to be valuable.  A year off shouldn't affect the 25 yr old SS.  Should form a very good keystone combo with Ian Kinsler.

Jose Iglesias turning two with Dustin Pedroia

Dayan Viciedo:  Will lose playing time this year to Melky Cabrera, Adam Eaton and Avisail Garcia in the Chisox outfield.  Hit .213 the 2nd half of 2014 after starting April with .348.  Was very bad defensively.  Might be exiting Chicago soon.  Young enough to catch on somewhere else.  Has good power.  

NAME	AGE	AVG-HR-RBI	OBP-SLG	wRC+	WAR	2015 SAL
Jose Abreu	28	.283/34/98	.355/.530	143	3.7	7.0
Yasiel Puig	24	.294/22/74	.373/.495	147	5.1	4.5
Yoennis Cespedes	29	.268/24/86	.319/.467	118	3.1	10.5
Leonys Martin	27	.264/10/56	.318/.387	93	2.3	3.8
Alexei Ramirez	33	.265/11/63	.300/.379	87	2.3	10.0
Adeiny Hechavarria	26	.248/4/48	.288/.335	82	0.6	0.6
Yunel Escobar	32	.258/7/39	.324/.351	96	1.8	5.0
Jose Iglesias	25	.257/5/45	.304/.341	81	1.5	0.6
Dayan Viciedo	26	.251/9/28	.298/.424	103	0.2	2.8