MULTITASKING

Jose Abreu had a great year for the Chicago White Sox.  He broke Ron Kittle's rookie HR record of 35 and finished high on the leaderboard in the main hitting categories in the AL, .317/.383/.581 with 36 HR's and 107 RBI's.  In the process he racked up 14, 18 and 21 game hitting streaks.  The Cuban slugger established himself as an offensive force in the American League.  Fangraphs WAR leaders for first basemen finds him in 3rd place with 5.3 WAR, only behind Anthony Rizzo of the Cubs with 5.6 and Miguel Cabrera of the Tigers with 5.4 WAR.  He lags behind because of his fielding and base running, not because of his hitting.

Jose Abreu first career home run in Colorado.

The overall numbers were great but it was a tale of two seasons for the 27 year old Abreu, hitting .292/.342/.630 in the first half and .350/.435/.513 in the second half showing a very high batting average but a serious drop in power numbers.  He hit 29 HR's before the All Star game and only 7 after the break.  Some say Abreu got tired but Alexei Ramirez and Yoenis Cespedes under similar circumstances finished very strong in their rookie years.  His .350 batting average suggests he wasn't tired.

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ALEXEI RAMIREZ 2008	HR	AVERAGE
FIRST HALF	7	0.312
SECOND HALF	14	0.269
YOENIS CESPEDES 2012
FIRST HALF	9	0.263
SECOND HALF	14	0.311

Jose Abreu has an advanced offensive approach and should keep on hitting for good average and power. I don't think his 2014 season is repeatable because of his very high BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play).  He registered .437 and .439 in July and August when he had his hitting streaks.  His overall .356 BABIP is still very high and very difficult to repeat.  Both, Alexei Ramirez and Yoenis Cespedes had their best offensive seasons in their first year.  I hope Abreu doesn't peak in his first year like Benito Santiago, the Rookie of the Year in 1987 with San Diego who hit .300 and had a rookie and catcher record 34 game hitting streak.  He never approached those numbers the rest of his career.  Abreu might be in for some serious regression in his offensive output.  Some inside info on Abreu shows he hit only .236 on ground balls which he hit little over 45% of the time and .220 on curve balls during the season.  He hit .377 on fly balls.

So what can we expect in the future from Jose Abreu?  The power hitting slugger or the high average hitter.?  To fulfill expectations he has to multitask, hitting for power and average.  To be elite you have to be able to walk and chew gum.

POSTSEASON 2014

The 2014 postseason has been outstanding.  Close and well played games with unlikely heroes.  Often the "little guy" performs well on the big stage and this year is no exception.  Some teams seem to be changing with the weather from the promise of potential to becoming very hard to beat.  The teams with the best records and fat payrolls have exited the scene.

The sooner the manager realizes the postseason is different and a greater sense of urgency is needed in decision making and in-game strategy, probably the more successful he'll be.  We've seen good teams with questionable managerial moves now sitting on the sidelines.  In a short series anything can and will happen.  You can't afford to make many mistakes and especially repeat those mistakes.  In the regular season, what didn't work today may work next week.  You don't have that luxury in the postseason.  When the tide is shifting a quick reaction is needed.

Brad Ausmus had a tough postseason.

Brad Ausmus got burned twice by Joba Chamberlain and Joakim Soria.  The first one was on them, the second one was on Brad Ausmus.  This was a bad move with disastrous results.

Jarrod Dyson of Kansas City stole second base but was called out by over sliding the bag.  It clearly looked like Jonathan Schoop nudged the foot off the base.  Ned Yost thought the call was correct and the tag was proper.  On this play, the least you could do is protest vehemently so the next time this happens you have a chance of getting a questionable call.  Kansas City is so hot, this didn't matter.  But you need to lay the groundwork for the future as the stolen base is a vital part of the Royals game.  A no move with good results.  However, Yost has done some good things by shortening the game depending more on his relievers.

Jarrod Dyson nudged off the bag?

It's more convenient for managers to follow a script or plan for a game.  Sometimes, in the postseason you have to throw in the kitchen sink to win a ball game, which is not the case in the regular season. If your team never has a lead in a close 3 game series, does it mean you'll never use your best reliever (closer) or you'll use him in high leverage situations even if it's not the last inning?  

Ned Yost riding the Kansas City wave

Some managers seem to be using a magic wand with a lot of positive moves while others can't seem to find their way out of a paper bag.  Teams with better personnel keep losing to teams with less talent.  

Buck Showalter  trying to stop the streaking Royals.

There is an element of luck in all of this.  Maybe it's better to be lucky than good. Perhaps the sabermetricians can identify and quantify the luck factor. The Kansas City Royals seem to have all of these elements wrapped up into a nice 6 game winning streak and are on the verge of tying the "Big Red Machine" of 1976 who went 7-0 in the postseason sweeping the Phillies and Yankees.  Buck Showalter of the Orioles is a very good manager. I get the impression he'll need lightning in a bottle or a magic lamp to stop these Royals. Kansas City is inspired and plays the game with enthusiasm and "gusto".  The best of the postseason is yet to come.

SEÑOR SMOKE

There was a Mexican reliever for the Detroit Tigers in the early to mid 80's who threw very hard and called himself "Señor Smoke".  Aurelio Lopez had a few very good seasons with the Tigers and passed away in 1992 in an auto accident after his retirement in 1987.  Remembering Aurelio Lopez, we borrow the "Señor Smoke" moniker to typify the very hard closers we have in MLB today.

Aurelio Lopez  Original Señor Smoke    (cbssports.com)

They're supposed to get the last 3 outs of the game and seal the W.  These guys are usually the hardest throwers and rely on blazing fastballs. A few have little over average velocities but have mastered other pitches and have great deception to get valuable outs.  In close games, the last 3 outs of the game weigh like lead.  They need nerves of steel and great focus and execution to get the job done.  Closers live on the edge and are in a universe of their own where they need a quick memory turnover.  There is a big difference between pitching the 8th and 9th innings.

Starting pitchers with good stuff but with limited secondary pitches and repertoire are prime candidates for the bullpen and eventually the closer role.  The move from the rotation to the bullpen will add 2-3 mph to an already good fastball.

Delin Betances   Watch out Jose Altuve

We'll look at the top 10 relievers in MLB in 2014 according to Fangraphs' "Reliever WAR metrics".

NAME	IP	HR/9	ERA	K%	FB VE	WAR
Delin Betances	90.0	0.40	1.40	39.6	96.6	3.2
Wade Davis	72.0	0.00	1.00	39.1	95.7	3.1
Aroldis Chapman	54.0	0.17	2.00	52.5	100.3	2.7
Jake McGee	71.1	0.25	1.89	32.9	96.3	2.6
Sean Doolittle	62.2	0.72	2.73	37.7	94.0	2.4
Andrew Miller	62.1	0.43	2.02	42.6	93.9	2.3
Greg Holland	62.1	0.43	1.44	37.5	95.8	2.3
Craig Kimbrel	61.2	0.29	1.61	38.9	97.1	2.2
Steve Cishek	65.1	0.41	3.17	30.6	91.7	2.0
Kenley Jansen	65.1	0.69	2.76	37.7	93.7	2.0

Aroldis Chapman throwing the slider more

As we can see , the two best relievers in baseball are not closers but closers "in waiting".  Delin Betances of the Yankees and Wade Davis of the Royals are 8th inning guys who should soon become closers.  Betances was a starter in the Minor Leagues and Davis was a starter for Tampa Bay and KC.  Of the current closers, Aroldis Chapman leads in WAR despite pitching the fewest innings.  Betances and Davis get credit for pitching more innings and doing so effectively.  That puts them above Chapman in WAR.  The best closer is not the one with the most "saves" but the one with the best overall numbers as Fangraphs points out.  Aroldis Chapman was the best closer in MLB in 2014 despite not pitching in April. 

Aroldis Chapman  100 mph smoke

2014 saw Chapman with a much higher K/9 rate, allowing only 1 HR and a record shattering 100.3 mph on his average fastball.  His fastball usage declined to a career low 69%, his slider increased to a high of 24% with a budding change up 7% of the time.  At age 26, Chapman is at the top of his game and at the top of the "totem pole" as the ultimate "Señor Smoke".
Chapman's progression from 2011-2014:

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YEAR	IP	K/9	HR	ERA	WAR	FB V	FB%	SL%	CH%
2011	50.0	12.78	2	3.60	0.4	97.9	84	16	0.0
2012	71.2	15.32	4	1.51	3.3	97.7	88	12	0.0
2013	63.2	15.83	7	2.54	1.6	98.3	85	15	0.0
2014	54.0	17.67	1	2.00	2.7	100.3	69	24	7.0

.300 HITTERS

Seventeen hitters reached the coveted .300 batting average in MLB in 2014 (minimum 500 plate appearances).  17 of approximately 255 regular hitters is 6.7%.  The cream of the crop average-wise.  In sabermetric circles and cubicles less importance is given to Batting Average.  It's not the ultimate stat but it's very important as it is the biggest component of On Base Percentage (OBP).  With this list of elite batting average hitters and the high strikeout rates prevalent today we took a quick look at the relationship between batting average and strikeouts.

The sample here included the 17 hitters that hit .300 plus 13 more to complete the highest 30 averages in MLB in 2014.  The lowest average included was .287.  
                                     K RATE %
.300 hitters                    12.5
non .300 hitters             18.2
MLB average 2014       20.4

Victor Martinez and Miguel Cabrera at Comerica

There's 46% more strikeouts for the non .300 hitters.  The only .300 hitters with more than 20% K rate were Jose Abreu with 21.1% and Lorenzo Cain with 20.9%.  There are 5 hitters with less than double-digit K rate, Victor Martinez with 6.6%, Jose Altuve (7.5%), Ben Revere ( 7.8%), Michael Brantley with 8.3% and Denard Span with 9.7%.  Altuve, Revere and Span are top of the order hitters while Martinez and Brantley are middle of the order sluggers.  Victor Martinez will be 36 years old in December, missed all of the 2012 season with an injury and had the best year of his career in 2014 when he should be past his peak.  His .335/.409/.565 line with 32 HR's and 103 RBI's with the lowest K rate in MLB shows skills of the real great hitters. High batting average, excellent power and very low K rate.  He had 70 walks and 42 strikeouts. Victor Martinez, in my humble opinion, has been the best hitter in MLB in 2014.  Martinez even outhit the great Miguel Cabrera, who had a down year with .314/.371/.524 with 25 HR's and 109 RBI's. The two "Venezuelan Bashers" were the best 3-4 hitters in the Major Leagues and the only duo with over .300 average and 100 RBI's each.  

Victor Martinez at work in Camden Yards

Victor Martinez peppering the Green Monster

Victor Martinez MLB best hitter 2014

This small observation suggests that most elite hitters strike out a lot less than 20% while the .280-.290 hitters can strike out around  20% and still be very productive.  Also there is a trend-line showing that elite batting averages are negatively impacted by high K rates.  This negative relationship shows that when one goes up the other goes down.