DEE GORDON (V.2) WEAPONIZED

Dee Gordon arrived in Los Angeles in 2011 posting a good .304/.325/.362 line in 233 plate appearances. In 2012, the 26 year old could not hit his way out of a paper bag and played bad defense at SS missing out on a good opportunity.  Gordon was sent down for most of 2013, returning in spring 2014 with a change of position (2B), a challenge (Alexander Guerrero) and something to prove. This second version (v.2) of Dee Gordon is much improved using his speed and the stolen base as a weapon to impact games in a way reminiscent of the great base stealers of the past. His MLB leading 30 stolen bases in 33 attempts (91%) would make Bill James proud. This pace puts him around 100 for the season.

Dee Gordon stealing against Padres in San Diego  (zimbio.com)

Someone said Dee Gordon was a "poor man's" Billy Hamilton.  So far it's the other way around with Gordon leaving Hamilton (18 SB in 24 attempts- 75%) in the dust in SB totals and efficiency. Fangraphs says he is 3rd in WAR for National League second basemen with 1.4 only behind Chase Utley of the Phillies (2.2) and Daniel Murphy of the Mets (1.5).

Dee Gordon and Billy Hamilton of the Reds might bring back an era of the great and daring base stealer.  Great disrupters of the game causing pitchers, catchers and infielders to be very uneasy. Everyone and their dog knows they're stealing when they get on. The challenge is to dare to stop them.  

Billy Hamilton streaking to first vs Padres at Cincy  (zimbio.com0

Since 1988 no one has stolen more than 80 bases (Vince Coleman with 81 and Rickey Henderson with 93).  80 is a number that puts you on the steps, 90 takes you to the edge and 100 puts you in the "magic circle" with Maury Wills (104 in 1962- 6 SB titles), Lou Brock (118 in 1974- 8 titles), Vince Coleman (109 in 1985, 107 in 1986 and 110 in 1987- 6 SB titles) and the greatest of them all, Rickey Henderson (100 in 1980, 130 in 1982 and 108 in 1983-12 SB titles).  Special mention to modern era trailblazers like Luis Aparicio of the 1959 Go Go Sox (9 SB titles),  Bert Campaneris of the Oakland Athletics with 6 SB titles in the 1960's and Tim Raines of the Montreal Expos with 4 SB titles in the 1980's keeping the running game alive.

Rickey Henderson stealing vs Orioles in 1983  (mlb.com)

Another era of great base stealers that can enter the "magic circle" is at hand.  The conditions are there.

MONEYBALL MAESTRO

The Oakland Athletics keep on winning.  Playing in the shadow of the San Francisco Giants (World Series titles in 2010 and 2012) and the free spending Los Angeles Dodgers, the A's have managed to dominate the AL West since 2012 and have only been stopped twice by Justin Verlander and the Detroit Tigers in critical games of the 2012 and 2013 postseasons in their quest to reach the World Series.  No team has won more games to date (220) than the Athletics since 2012.  With 94 wins in 2012 and 96 in 2013 they are on pace this year for 101.  They keep rolling despite missing 2 key members of the starting rotation to Tommy John surgery for the 2014 season (Jarrod Parker and AJ Griffin).  

Billy Beane at Detroit 2013   (zimbio.com)

Billy Beane, the "Moneyball Maestro" runs a tight ship and makes few mistakes signing solid cost efficient players and Manager Bob Melvin makes a lot of right moves on the field leading to astounding success at a relatively low cost.  To do this one year might be a fluke but the repeatability takes it to another level.

Bob Melvin in Chicage 2014    (zimbio.com)

Fangraphs says the A's team WAR (9.4) is only second to the Los Angeles Angels 12.1 despite having a line that looks similar to the Chicago White Sox:
                     PA        RS      HR      avg/obp/slg      WAR
Oakland      1919      245     50     .252/.339/.408     9.4
Chicago      1926      243     54     .261/.324/.415     5.3

With a walk rate of 11.1% (1st in the AL) compared to the 7.9% of the Chisox that makes for about 190 more walks for the season with a much lower strikeout rate (22.9 to 17.8%) giving them a lot more opportunities to keep the offense rolling.  The A's defense is also rated above average.

With no real star players on the team, Josh Donaldson has become their best player.  Here are the numbers since 2012:
                                      PA      HR      WAR   PA/HR
Yoenis Cespedes        1298       57        6.1      22.8
Brandon Moss              988       62        6.3      15.9
Josh Donaldson          1179       43      11.8      27.4

Josh Donaldson vs Indians    (zimbio.com)

Moss and Cespedes provide a nice quota of power with Moss being relatively unknown.  

Brandon Moss vs Mariners at Oakland  (zimbio.com)

The pitching ERA is 2.88, the best in the AL with a 6.6 WAR, 3rd best despite a bullpen that has only 9 saves (league low is 8) has lost 9 games and has blown another 8 saves (league high).  No starting pitcher with 40 + IP has an ERA over 4.00 with Sonny Gray the leader at 1.99, Jesse Chavez at 2.54 and Scott Kazmir at 2.56.  These three have a 14-5 combined record.  There should be some regression here as the season goes along.  Jim Johnson, the 10.0 million dollar closer is the worst pitcher on the team with 25 hits and 13 walks in 19 IP and a 6.63 ERA.  The track record is there to keep waiting for a return to form.

Sony Gray vs Tigers 2013   (zimbio.com)

Despite the A's payroll spiking some this year, they still remain in the bottom 4 of the AL.  The cost of doing business has increased league wide.
2012   59.5 M (15th)    2013    68.6 M (13th)     2014   83.4 M (12)

Comparing to what the Los Angeles Dodgers have spent
                   $                  W
2012       129.0 M          86
2013       220.4              92
2014       235.3              86 (projected)
Total       584.7            264
During the same time period the Athletics will spend 211.5 million and get close to 290 wins.
It will cost the Dodgers almost three times as much to win a game. Moneyball seems to be alive and well for those that want to embrace it.

Top 5 paid players A's                    Top 5 paid pitchers

Yoenis Cespedes      10.5                 Jim Johnson     10.0
Coco Crisp                 7.5                  Scott Kazmir       7.0
Jed Lowrie                 5.2                 Luke Gregerson   5.1
Alberto Callaspo        4.9                  Jesse Chavez      0.8
Brandon Moss            4.1                  Sonny Gray        0.5

Josh Donaldson is paid .5 million for 2014 

CHINK IN THE ARMOR

The 2012 and 2013 baseball seasons saw Mike Trout establish himself as the best overall player in MLB according to Fangraphs WAR metric.  20.4 WAR in 2 years (10.0 and 10.4) is max performance.  It takes some star players 3-4 years to accumulate this value.  The multifaceted Angels OF has set a very high standard maybe even too high for himself going forward.  

Mike Trout vs Cubs   (gettyimages.com)

May 2014 so far is Trout's worst month of his young career (with at least 60 AB's).  He's seen his average drop from around .320 to .270.  His worst month in 2012 was August (.284 in 116 AB) and in 2013 was April (.261 in 111 AB).  With 43 AB in May he's around .140.  He might go on a tear and return to normal but until then we'll keep looking at his numbers.  He is a lower performance player this year who could end up having a good year instead of a great year. Can Mike Trout's new extension (6/145.5) have anything to do with his current level?.  Maybe he wants to deliver more power.  Trout is at his best spraying line drives to all fields and hitting hard grounders through the infield mixing in a good quota of fly balls.  

His splits this year, compared to 2013 show a different type of player:
                  BB%        K%         LD%      FB%
2013          15.4          19.0        23.0        35.6
2014          11.7          27.8        17.9        41.5

His walk rate has dropped, his strikeout rate has jumped 46%, the line drive rate has dropped a lot and fly balls are up by a big margin.

                    LHP        RHP       Home   Away     RHPA
2013           .309          .327        .319     .326        .325
2014           .366          .234        .304     .241        .203

2013 he was good across the board.  This year he is having trouble against right handed pitching, trouble away from home and a lot of trouble against RHP away.
                    LF              CF             RF
2013            31%           38%           30%
2014            35%           41%           24%

His batted ball distribution says he is pulling more and going the other way less.  

Mike Trout vs Blue Jays in Toronto   (zimbio.com)

With his short, compact swing I wouldn't expect such a high spike in strikeouts.  He just seems to be swinging and missing.  The higher fly ball rate, higher strikeouts and higher pull rate suggest he is looking more power.  On April 19th, for the first time in his career he wore a "golden sombrero" (4 strikeouts in a game) and then repeated about 3 weeks later on May 11.

I expect Mike Trout to regain a lot of his "good" numbers.  We'll see how much.

CUBS AND WHITE SOX

The National League Chicago Cubs and the American League Chicago White Sox are currently in a 4 game interleague series (Chicago series).  The first two will be played at Wrigley Field on the North side and the last 2 games at US Cellular Field on the South side, home of the Chisox.  The White Sox have a 49 to 45 edge in wins.  
Last year both teams finished in last place in their respective divisions.  With the signing of Jose Abreu by the White Sox and the development of Anthony Rizzo of the Cubs improvement is expected for both franchises in the Windy City.  Jose Abreu and Anthony Rizzo both play first base and hit in the middle of the order (3rd or 4th) and are expected to provide offense.  So far this is the result:
name                age  Ht  Wt    PA      avg/obp/slg       OPS  WAR  $  Jose Abreu        27  6:3 255   145    .254/.317/.608   .925    1.1   7.0   
 Anthony Rizzo 24   6:3 240   131    .292/.420/.500   .920    1.1   1.2

Jose Abreu vs Tigers at home  (zimbio.com)

Anthony Rizzo vs Cardinals in retro uniform  (zimbio.com)

Abreu has the edge in HR's and RBI's (12 and 35) while Rizzo has a better avg and OBP%.  They are both tied in 3rd place in WAR for major league first baseman only behind Albert Pujols (1.4) and Paul Goldschmidt (1.2).  Both are negative in fielding and base running early on with Rizzo having a little better offensive value.  Abreu in a small sample size (29 plate appearances) against left handed pitching is hitting .172 and .277 against right handers.  4 of his 5 hits against LHP are home runs.  
                           BB%         K%                                                          Jose Abreu          6.9           24.8
 Anthony Rizzo  16.8           15.5

Rizzo shows a better command of the strike zone with more walks and less strikeouts.  Abreu will improve these numbers as he gains more experience.  

MLB - PITCHING

Baseball at the Major League level is great.  With 15 games per day and about 90-100 games per week, the craft of great hitters, pitchers, base stealers and defensive players is put on display.  So many competitive games played across the land and so many great individual performances. As a baseball person I consider it a great privilege to watch.  This is the place where the great players come to prove their worth and try to touch stardom and immortality.

The Fangraphs pitching WAR metric tries to capture the pitcher's performance regardless of run support, defense, bullpen effectiveness and ultimately wins and losses.  If you do well, WAR will recognize you. Jeff Samardzija of the Cubs has 0 wins 3 losses and 1.62 ERA with 1.0 WAR.  The best starters this year are John Lester and Jose Fernandez at 1.9 WAR.  There are 23 starters with 1.0 + WAR (23 of more or less 150) that makes up the top 15%.  If one is good two is better, so let's take a look at the top pitching duos with an infocap (information capsule) on each.  
                                Age                                    Age      Total WAR
1.  Jose Fernandez  (21)   1.9   Nathan Eovaldi (24)  1.2     3.1
2   John Lester        (30)   1.9   John Lackey       (35) 1.0     2.9
3.  Max Scherzer     (29)   1.5   Justin Verlander  (31) 1.3    2.8
4.  Corey Kluber      (28)  1.3   Zach McAllister   (26)  1.1    2.4  
5.  Scott Kazmir       (30)  1.1   Jesse Chavez      (30) 1.1    2.2

1.  The numbers are there but is Jose Fernandez the best pitcher in baseball after just 35 starts and 219 innings pitched in MLB after jumping from high Class A?  The youngster is hanging out with veterans like Lester (30), Scherzer (29), Verlander (31) and Felix Hernandez (28).  Another youngster, 24 year old Nathan Eovaldi is making the transition from thrower to pitcher.  Fernandez throws very hard and Eovaldi throws a little harder than Fernandez.  It's not a comfortable feeling coming to Marlins Park and facing this high-powered duo.  

Jose Fernandez vs Braves at Turner Field (zimbio.com)

Nathan Eovaldi vs Colorado Rockies  (zimbio.com)

2.  Veterans John Lester and John Lackey are money pitchers.  Still providing quality innings for a Bosox team off to a slow start.                                                      

John Lester vs Orioles  (zimbio.com)

                                                          

John Lackey vs the A's  (zimbio.com)

                    

 3.  Scherzer has passed Verlander as the No.1.  On a given day Verlander can still pitch with the best.  This is a power pair with finesse.   

Max  Scherzer vs the A's at Oakland  (zimbio.com)

Justin Verlander vs the Orioles at Comerica  (zimbio.com)

4.  Kluber and McAllister are numbers 2 and 3 on the Indians staff. (number 1 is Justin Masterson).  The second youngest duo just keeps growing and logging quality innings.

Corey Kluber vs the Chisox  at Progressive Field  (zimbio.com)

Zach McAllister vs Twins at Progressive Field  (zimbio.com)

5.  Kazmir and Chavez are a surprise duo.  Getting opportunity because of the injuries to Jarrod Parker and A J  Griffin out for the year with TJ surgery and taking advantage.  The kind of thing Billy Beane does.  Some moneyball in action here?  Sonny Gray, another member of the rotation with 1.0 WAR might prove to be the best by season's end.

Scott Kazmir vs Seattle at Oakland  (zimbio.com)

Jesse Chavez vs Texas in Arlington  (zimbio.com)

CUBAN SPECIAL - EARLY SEASON STATS

The talent flow coming out of Cuba recently has been impressive. More than a few members of the elite Cuban National Team are now stateside in MLB.  They keep opening doors for future Cuban players and setting a high standard talent-wise.  I'll take a look at some early season numbers (up to May 1) of 8 well established regular players with some brief comments about each one.

The WAR calculations by Fangraphs includes values for defense, base running and offense all rolled up into one neat number.  It tries to capture the total value of the player, not only offense which is the most obvious.

                                                                                            

Name                    Age   PA        avg/obp/slg         WAR       2014                                                                                                            $$

Alexei Ramirez      32   121      .351/.375/.535         1.0           9.5 

Yunel Escobar      31   113      .223/.286/.330         0.4           5.0

A. Hechavarria      25   113      .282/.321/.398         0.1           0.5

Dayan Viciedo       25   100      .348/.410/.528         0.8           2.8

Jose Abreu            27   128      .270/.336/.617         1.0           7.0

Yoenis Cespedes  28   102     .258/.343/.494          0.3         10.5

Yasiel Puig            23   113      .309/.394/.505         1.3           2.0

Leonys Martin       26   103      .308/.357/.396          0.8           2.8

ALEXEI RAMIREZ

The best of the 3 Cuban shortstops so far.  Usually a slow starter, Alexei is off to the best start of his career.  With decreasing power numbers the last few years he's showing the best power since his rookie year (.475 slugging).  His numbers will regress quite a bit but he should end up having a nice season providing steady defense and good base running.

Alexei Ramirez in action vs Cleveland   (zimbio.com)

YUNEL ESCOBAR

Off to a slow start just like last year.  He's normally been a little better than Alexei Ramirez most years but maybe 2014 will be different.  His offense is in the tank right now and has already made 4 errors on defense compared to 7 all of 2013.  Expect better numbers as the season goes on.

Yunel Escobar at Tropicana Field   (zimbio.com)

ADEINY HECHAVARRIA

Showing a lot of improvement over 2013 with a positive number. Last year was all negative.  Getting a lot of playing time with the Marlins so he should develop.  Still in the learning curve, he's showing a better approach at the plate.  Some defensive lapses on routine plays.  

Adeiny Hechavarria at Marlins Park   (zimbio.com)

DAYAN VICIEDO

There seems to be some progress here.  His walk rate has jumped (5.1 to 10%), his strikeout rate has dropped (20.7 to 15%) and his Out of Zone Swings  has dropped from 37.5 to 29.4% over 2013 showing better plate discipline.  Old habits die hard and that is the challenge as his base running and defense are below average.

Dayan Viciedo at Cellular Field   (zimbio.com) 

JOSE ABREU

Abreu has gotten off to a record breaking start (10 HR by a rookie in April).  Pitchers have to recognize him as a good hitter and have to make quality pitches to get him out.  He looks solid but an adjustment period must come as he gets more exposure.  The best offensive player in the group of 8 but his negative base running and defense pulls down his overall value.  Has the highest Out of Zone Swings of this group with 39.1%.  The 3 Cuban players on the Chisox, Ramirez, Viciedo and Abreu account for 2.8 of the 4.1 WAR (68%).

Jose Abreu at Comerica Park   (zimbio.com)

YOENIS CESPEDES

Has shown improved plate discipline.  Walk rate up from 6.4 to 11.8% and K rate down from 23.9 to 15.7%.  Gets pull happy sometimes.  Right now is rated below average on defense and base running despite lots of tools.  Should improve but needs to refine his game some more.  Solid RBI guy.  Highest paid player of the group.

Yoenis Cespedes vs Seattle Mariners   (zimbio.com)

YASIEL PUIG

Started slow but is heating up.  The youngest of the group at 23, Puig has shown much better plate discipline especially on pitches out of the strike zone dropping from 37 to 25.4% in the early season.  Base running value is negative so far but he's only slightly behind Abreu as an offensive player.  The money is on Puig to lead this group in WAR this year.

Yasiel Puig vs Colorado at Dodger Stadium   (zimbio.com)

LEONYS MARTIN

Martin does everything above average.  Not a great hitter but makes up value with excellent base running and high quality defense at the premium CF position.  The only player of the group with positive numbers in all categories. Needs to improve his contact rate as his K% is up to 23.3, the highest of the group.

Leonys Martin making a catch vs Seattle  (zimbio.com)

Will revisit this same group of players later in the year.