Wednesday, January 29, 2014

MIRROR PERFORMANCE



If we go by their NPBL (Nippon Professional Baseball League) stats, Yu Darvish  and Masahiro Tanaka are the two best pitchers to leave Japan for Major League Baseball.  Hideo Nomo, Hiroki Kuroda, Hisashi Iwakuma and Daisuke Matsuzaka were all very good but not in this category.

YU   DARVISH

With a career ERA in Japan of 1.99 in 1268.1 IP over 7 years from ages 18-24 (2005-2011), Darvish sets a standard so high it seems unreachable.  His last 5 years (2007-2011) he pitched all under 2.00 ERA and his last 3 years were even better compiling 1.64 ERA in 616 IP.  

                    IP       ERA     H/9     HR/9    BB/9     K/9      K/W

2005-11    1268.1   1.99      6.5      0.40     2.40       8.9       3.70
2007-11    1024.1   1.72      6.1      0.34     1.94       9.5       4.90
2009-11      616.0   1.64      6.3      0.28     1.87       9.7       5.20

MASAHIRO   TANAKA

Tanaka also pitched ages 18-24 in Japan over 7 years (2007-2013) with 47 more IP for a total of 1315 and a 2.30 ERA.  However, his last 3 years he outpitched Darvish slightly and recorded the two lowest ERA'S of either pitcher in this time period with 1.27 in 2011 and 1.27 in 2013 going 24-0 in 2013.  Darvish posted a 1.44 ERA in 2011, only second to Tanaka.


                   IP         ERA      H/9     HR/9     W/9     K/9       K/W

2007-13    1315      2.30       8.1      0.45       1.88     8.28      4.40
2011-13      611      1.44       7.3      0.27       1.15     8.70      7.56

Other comparison stats in their last 3 years:

                        W-L     WHIP     GS      CG     SHOT      HR
Darvish           45-19    .913        76       28         10          19
Tanaka            53-9      .948        76       30         11          18

These performances almost mirror each other. They are very close.  Is it possible that Tanaka might have squeaked by Darvish in his last 3 years in Japan? 

Yu Darvish   (Sports Illustrated.cnn.com)

Masahiro Tanaka   (Sportsgrid.com)



Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and NPBL.




       


Thursday, January 23, 2014

ADIOS SABATHIA?


The addition of 25 year old Masahiro Tanaka to the Yankees (7/155) brings youth, quality and stability to the rotation.  On paper, the top four starters (Sabathia, Kuroda, Tanaka and Nova) look good but there is some worry. 

Hiroki Kuroda, 3.8 WAR in 2013 and soon to be 39, has been great in New York even better then his last two years in Los Angeles (7.5 WAR and 421 IP in NY and 6.3 WAR and 398 IP in LA).  The last 60 IP in 2013 his ERA was 5.44.  I have to wonder how many sinkers, sliders and splits are left in that arm.  Ivan Nova, 27, had only 139.1 IP but racked up 2.5WAR and a 3.10 ERA.  Not a model of durability he's never logged more than 171 IP.  The ace of the staff, CC Sabathia 33, was in free fall (2.7 WAR in 2013 and 4.9 and 6.5 WAR the 2 previous years).  With 2775 IP under his belt, CC was a below average pitcher in 2013.  His fastball velocity has dropped (93.8 to 92.3 to 91.1) the last 3 years.  He used it more  than his slider (26.0% to 21.9% to 17.5% last 3 years) which was a more effective pitch.  The H/9 rate of 9.55 and HR/9 of 1.19 were career worst and his K/9 rate of 7.46 was tied for lowest in the last 8 years.  His ERA was 4.76, a career high.

CC Sabathia removed from game   (NY Daily News)

CC might have an uptick in performance in 2014 but should not recover his ace standing unless the 94 mph fastball is back or he reinvents himself.  With 3 years guaranteed (2014-2016) plus and option for 2017 that could cost the Yankees 96.0 million total there should be legitimate cause for concern.


Stats courtesy of Fangraphs.

Wednesday, January 22, 2014

CUBAN OUTFIELD



Yoenis Cespedes, the toolsy cuban outfielder, won the HR derby and was a batting practice sensation leading some to believe maybe he had a good year but 2013 saw a decline in his overall offensive output despite increasing his HR from 23 to 26.  There was some defensive improvement from -7 DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) to 0 in 2013.  The WAR valuation system was not kind to Cespedes dropping him 2.0 WAR compared to the year before.

2012  .292/.356/.505  .861 OPS   oW 4.5  dW -1.2   3.7 WAR
2013  .240/.294/.442  .737 OPS   oW 1.6  dW -0.5   1.7 WAR

The Oakland LF has a lot of upside and his value will come from making adjustments and polishing his overall game.

Almost unknown in Texas except to a few fans and teammates, Leonys Martin received his first opportunity to play almost regularly producing below average offensive numbers.  His value came from defense, 13 DRS and base running, stealing 36 of 45 (80%) bases hitting mostly from the 8-9 slots with 72 less AB than his more famous compatriot.  Increasing his OB% could put him in the leadoff spot.
Leonys Martin  (Dallas Morning News)

2013   .260/.313/.385  .698 OPS  oW 1.9  dW 1.7  3.4 WAR
  
Cespedes salary for 2013 (8.5 million) and for 2014 (10.5)
Martin salary for 2012 (3.25 million) and for 2014 (3.75)

In this case we can't follow the hype but find value in the numbers.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference.



















Friday, January 17, 2014


   
     BASEBALL BONANZA?

It is the best of financial times for MLB, setting a new revenue record with over 8 billion dollars in 2013.  They are constantly finding new revenue streams.  Local, regional and national TV contracts are a big part of the boom as are MLB Advanced Media (online content) and Licensed Merchandise.

Regardless of a particular team's situation, a good financial practice is to spend money responsibly and not make risky moves for large sums of money.  Some antsy GM's have overpaid grossly for good and star players driving up the cost of doing business and putting a serious crimp on their team's future.  If knowledgeable baseball fans know a bad contract when they see one, what are these GM's thinking?  Maybe an Intelligence Department that joins strong player scouting and development with sound sabermetric principles can help bring some common sense to resource allocation.              Mega-contracts (7+ yrs-140+ million) are risky however, teams like the Yankees and Dodgers can deal with the risk better than others.  Deep pockets will bail out bad decisions but there is a limit.  Why can't big money teams try to be efficient and put in place systems like the John Hart Indians in the 90's, locking up players before they hit free agency?  Good money management applies to rich and poor.  When an organization is working smoothly scouting and player development are providing a constant flow of talent to the majors and the braintrust is implementing systems that will keep their best players through their most productive years.  If this is done maybe very little free agent talent is needed.  When it's not, money will be a substitute for bad management.  With a good plan in place teams could keep their best players for at least ten years and maybe more.  Is it possible to avoid the extreme peaks and valleys most franchises go through? From where I sit it seems possible.

Couple questions here.  Are there more revenue streams on the horizon?  Are the current ones near maxed out?


















Wednesday, January 15, 2014



CHICAGO CUBS   RIGHT AROUND THE CORNER

The Chicago Cubs are an iconic and valuable franchise, 5th most according to Bloomberg Sports, with a total value of 1.32 billion dollars.  The first two years under the Theo Epstein regime have been awful (127 wins and 197 losses .391 W%)  Their 2013 record (66 W and 96 L) was the second worst in the National League and third worst in all of Major League Baseball.  A bad team with a bad manager got bad results on the field.

I've associated Epstein with quality and success from his Boston days but the product on the field in Chicago at times looked like a minor league team on a bad day.  Even the young "core' seemed lost at times.  The team's best offensive player was the relatively unknown Dioner Navarro with a .300/.365/.492 slash line and .856 OPS but only 240 AB.  Navarro parlayed this productive season into a two year 8.0 million contract with the Blue Jays after making 1.75 million last year.  These have been lean years for the franchise on the field.

2013 attendance at the "friendly confines" was good at 2.6 million (average 32,625) twelfth best in MLB but down from 2.9 million in 2012 and 8 consecutive years over 3.0 million before that.  The trendline is not good.  Total revenues were 320 million, 4th most in MLB while payroll was 104.9 million (14th in MLB), leaving room for a healthy bottom line.  The Chicago White Sox, who also finished last in their division in the AL drew 1.8 million fans (22,105/game) which was 24th with a payroll of 123.6 million and a 63 W 99 L record, 2nd worst in the AL.  Cubs and Chisox were a double whammy for Chicago baseball in 2013.

All that said, the "wave" is coming.  Late 2014 or 2015 should see a crop of young players that will excite the faithful and pull the team out of the basement.  Names to remember are:  Javier Baez SS, Albert Almora OF, Jorge Soler OF, Kris Bryant 3B, Arismendy Alcantara 2B, Mike Olt 3B, Dan Vogelbach 1B, CJ Edwards P, and Pierce Johnson P.

With the pipeline full of talent and the franchise in good financial shape, Theo and his braintrust must be salivating as the good years are right around the corner.  These can be the "fat " years.  The nightmare should be over.  Salud, Theo.