MLB 2019 SOME IMPRESSIONS

The 2019 MLB season is on the verge of producing another HR record hitting year. A few days ago I ran some numbers and looks like the 2019 season will surpass the 2017 record season, and by a lot about 10% more. They'll end up slugging about 500-600 more HR's than the 6105 couple years ago. The previous record broke the total from the "Steroids Era" in 2000. If the players are off "the Juice" now, maybe there's some equivalent "Juice" in the ball combined with other factors. Some games look like Nintendo or Playstation games. Regular "banjo" hitters are hitting double digit HR's. By the way, they'll also set a strikeout record this year, in totals and rate. With so many "Dog Days" now at stadiums all around the country, we'll probably see a dog hit a HR pretty soon.  I kinda miss the old game when HR's weren't so cheap. Feels like something is out of whack in baseball on the field. The money is good, though. A real "Millionaires Club".

This weekend MLB is rolling out all white and all black uniforms with nicknames on the back of the jerseys. I think both are very bad ideas. It was so bizarre, I had to tune out of the games. Nicknames? Come on, let's get serious and stop tampering with player uniforms and names Whoever came up with this idea is really not a baseball fan. Probably some PC fellow, living in a basement. The uniform that I most dislike in MLB is the Diamondbacks dark gray road uni. It's horrible, these are a lot worse.

By the way, have you noticed all the chit-chat that occurs in baseball today. When runners reach base they have these long conversations at first, second, third, the SS even comes over sometimes. Enough times they're not even paying attention to the coaches. I think that is excessive fraternizing. Didn't use to be that way. I want to kick this guy's butt, I don't want to talk with them. There's a "social club" atmosphere around the bases. Maybe they're comparing contracts. Fraternize after the games. This is something that is exclusive to baseball now. Even the ladies that play basketball, volleyball and softball don't engage in this type of behavior. Maybe it's the new friendly PC culture in the game. 

A TALE OF TWO INFIELDERS

Earlier this year, two promising young infielders were signed to multi-year contracts that will take them through their arbitration years and put them at free agency, when these deals expire.  This is a strategy used by some teams to provide financial security for their best young players, avoid arbitration (which can be contentious), and provide some payroll cost control. 

Rougned Odor, 23, second baseman for the Texas Rangers, (6yr-49.5M) from 2017-2022 and Jose Ramirez, 25, 2B-3B for the Cleveland Indians (5yr-26M) for 2017-2021 were coming off very good seasons in 2016, that prompted their teams to lock them up.

The 2017 season saw, Jose Ramirez, become an All Star and perhaps the best player on the Central Division champs, Cleveland Indians, while Rougned Odor, had a nightmarish season putting up bad offensive numbers and providing below-average glove work.

2017	avg/obp/slg	HR	wRC+	WAR
R Odor	.204/.296/.397	30	61	-1
J Ramirez	.308/.374/.583	29	148	6.6

wRC+ is a measure of offense adjusted for park and league.  100 is average.  Odor was 39% below average while Ramirez came in at 48% above average.  He had a negative WAR, while Ramirez accumulated 6.6 which was the 8th best total in MLB.  WAR is the total contribution of a player to his team.  The Rangers 2B hit 30 HR's but became a one-dimensional player hitting .168 avg on the road and .145 against left-handed pitching.  The last 2 years combined, Rougned had a total of 52 walks and 297 K's in 1283 plate appearances, while Ramirez compiled 96 walks and 131 K's in 1263 PA. Ninety percent of his HR's (27 of 30) were to RF.  

All Star Jose Ramirez  (zimbio.com

Rougned Odor, took a couple steps back this year.  He needs to clear his head, make adjustments, change his approach at the plate and he can still be a good player.  Jose Ramirez, clearly the much better player now, provides his team high-caliber play at 2B, 3B and even SS, while Odor is strictly a second baseman.  The Indians have an excellent player with a team-friendly contract while the Rangers have a lot of question marks about their overpaid infielder.

THE JUICE GOES ON

The amount of HR's hit this year in MLB totaled 6105, eclipsing the old high of 5693, hit during the height of the "steroids era" in 2000.  The HR rate per team per game increased by 7.7%.

MLB also set a record for strikeouts this year with 40,104 K's.  Compared to the year 2000 total of 31,356, that represents an increase of 8748 K's.  The K-rate jumped from 16.5% in 2000 to 21.6% in 2017, for a skyrocketing increase of 31%.

The superb Joey Votto  (zimbio.com)

With the new concept of "launch angle", brought on by the Statcast era, hitters are trying to hit more fly balls, instead of ground balls which are gobbled up by infield shifts.  More fly balls and juiced-up baseballs have created an environment that is conducive to long and frequent home runs, surpassing the "steroids era" with the negative side effect of record-setting strikeouts.  A lot of good things happen when contact is made.  The concept of situational hitting seems almost lost with this generation.  Power hitters with a low strikeout rate should be at a premium in today's baseball.  It seems as if the "juice" is not gone, it just moved from the players to the baseballs.

Year	HR rate	% increase	K rate	% increase
2017	1.26	7.7	21.6	31
2000	1.17		16.5

BOOMSTICK TIME

A few years ago, Nelson Cruz, popularized the "boomstick" bat.  It was a tribute to his frequent and long home runs.  Cruz has been a bona fide slugger with an explosive bat.  This season, MLB is seeing a real uptick in the HR rate, to the extent a new record will be set breaking the previous high accomplished during the "steroids era".  It looks like "boomstick" time all around baseball with batters hitting more frequent and longer home runs.  

In 2000 MLB hitters slugged a total of 5693 home runs which is the actual record for totals and also for HR rate of 1.17 HR/team/game.
The current rate of 1.26 HR/game, projects to a total over 6000, which is the first time this milestone would be achieved.  There seems to be more than one "rabbit" in the current baseball.  

So what gives?  We think "the juice" is on the downswing.  Some say the baseball is more "tightly-wound" making it travel farther on contact. MLB has been tinkering with the game for a while now, so is this a random occurrence or by design? Seems like "everybody and their dog" are hitting home runs nowadays.  

YANKEE PRIDE?

The New York Yankees could be in danger of missing the playoffs for the third straight year. The first time this would happen since 1995.  The signature franchise of MLB, often likened to an "empire" is not in a good place.  Lackluster performance on the field and a lukewarm front office doesn't fit the "Yankee Tradition" of winning and exhibiting strong star power.

New York Yankees GM Brian Cashman  (cbslocal.com)

The Yankees don't look crisp and are a little slow and out of step. With an aging core of injury prone star players like Alex Rodriguez (39), Carlos Beltran (38), Mark Teixeira (35), CC Sabathia (34), the 2015 season doesn't look good.  They might as well be walking on eggshells. Declining skills coupled with persistent injuries take a toll on performance.  The only player under 30 in the regular lineup is SS Didi Gregorius at 25.  This is Didi's 3rd team in 4 years so I don't think he'll be a fixture in NY.  A middle of the order lineup of Rodriguez, Beltran and Teixeira is not a good thing, especially versus good pitching.

Mark Teixeira NY Yankees first baseman  (nbcsports.com)

New York's projected 2015 payroll is 216.5 million, second in MLB only behind the Monopoly-like money the Los Angeles Dodgers are spending with 279.0 M.  Besides this payroll they will pay a luxury tax (any payroll above 189.0 M must pay a tax to try to constrain the richer teams from outspending lower revenue teams) which is calculated with a complicated formula.  The Dodgers get to the postseason, the Yankees get no bang for their buck. At the Major League level the resources haven't been well allocated.  The Mets might be the best team in town this year.

Jacoby Ellsbury NY centerfielder  (planetminecraft.com)

The best Yankee players are Jacoby Ellsbury (31) with a 2014, 3.9 WAR and Brett Gardner (31) with 3.3.  Gardner is barely known outside his place of residence.  One of the Yankee advantages at the Stadium is they can field a team with 8 left handed hitters to take advantage of the short RF porch.  They can be the "Bronx Bombers" at home.  Away from Yankee Stadium it will be difficult. The Yankee bullpen features two of the best relievers in baseball in hard-throwing RHP Delin Betances and LHP Andrew Miller.  The braintrust hasn't figured out who will be the closer and if Masahiro Tanaka will be throwing less four seamers this year to protect his elbow.

Emblematic Yankees Logo   (screensavers.com)

The organization has a very good farm system. If they develop local talent and sign young impact free agents they can get good in a hurry.  With the second highest average ticket price per game in MLB ( over $50) only behind the Red Sox, the Yankee faithful will continue grumbling this year. Some fans commented they didn't like the 2.3 billion New Yankee Stadium that opened in 2009.  I wouldn't either if my team wasn't winning and the year ahead looked bleak.  George Steinbrenner was abrasive at times but he understood the "Yankee mystique".

Firebaling Matt Harvey in 2013  (wordpress.com

During the New York Mets 2015 spring training, Zack Wheeler (24), a fastballing RHP with a lot of upside and Josh Edgin (28) a left handed bullpen specialist, underwent Tommy John surgery.  At the same time, Matt Harvey, the 25 yr old ace of the staff and 30 year old Bobby Parnell, the staff closer, were coming back from TJ surgery from the year before.  Four key pieces of a 12 man staff in about 14 months is alarming and is part of the recent epidemic of TJ surgeries touching starters, relievers, young pitchers, veteran pitchers across the board.  

A baseball seams tattoo over a TJ surgery scar  courtesy of Kyle Blanks

The American Sports Medicine Institute founded by orthopedic surgeon, Dr. James Andrews, in Alabama is at the forefront of the research on TJ. The Institute along with other stakeholders like MLB, trainers,pitchers and executives are trying to find the root causes of the problem.  ASMI performs a lot of the surgeries and track recovery time and effectiveness.  Success rate now is above 80% and recovery time is about 14-16 months.  Some early research suggests a lot of the problems start during the early years and carry over to college and the pros.  Pitch Smart is a guideline by MLB outlining risk factors, TJ questions and guidance for parents, players and coaches at the youth level to protect against overuse injuries during the development years.

MLB NEWS

Opening Night in MLB is Sunday, April 5th, with the Saint Louis Cardinals visiting the Chicago Cubs. With players and fans getting antsy for the 2015 season to begin, the long awaited "play ball" will continue on Monday, April 6th, with a full slate of games.  
There was a time when the traditional "Opening Day" game was played on Mondays in Cincinnati with the ceremonial first pitch of the season thrown there and then around the rest of the league. Cincinnati is recognized as the first pro baseball team and opening day in the "Queen City" was and is a real baseball holiday with parades and other ceremonies. I remember skipping school on some opening days, without my parents consent, just to listen to Reds' radio broadcasts of the start of a new season.  Huge TV contracts, one of the cash cows and most important revenue streams for MLB, have changed the old format and now the Sunday Night Opening Game is the "new normal".                                                            

Opening Day in Cincy at Great American Ballpark  (mlb.com)

There's been a few Tommy John surgeries performed this Spring Training, but not as many as last year.  Yu Darvish, Zach Wheeler, Josh Edgin and Tim Collins are the most notable. Cliff Lee, chose rehab as a TJ procedure would almost certainly be career ending for the 36 year old southpaw.  A prime candidate for TJ surgery is Masahiro Tanaka of the Yankees.  With some time taken off last year because of elbow and UCL (Ulnar Collateral Ligament) problems and diminished performance after returning, all eyes are on Tanaka. There is a lot of mileage on that arm. Pitching in Japan for 7 seasons (1315 innings) since he was 18 and never logging less than 155 innings in any season plus the postseason is a heavy workload. The 26 year old Tanaka, managed only 136 IP with the Yankess in 2014. Throwing split-finger fastballs (25%) and sliders (22.2%) almost half of the time doesn't bode well for a delicate elbow.  The demands of a Major League pitching ace are great and if there is a real problem it will show up sooner than later.

Masahiro Tanaka and the split finger fastball. March 2014  (zimbio.com)

The free-spending Los Angeles Dodgers are without Hanley Ramirez and Matt Kemp this year, two of their best power hitters. 24 year old Yasiel Puig showed a modicum of maturity last year and will need to step up and fill some of that vacuum.  The much talked about Puig, be it good or bad, will have to continue to polish his considerable tools and become a bona fide star player to fulfill expectations.  Puig hit .274/.366/.414 after the 2014 All Star game with 4 HR's and 17 RBI's in 215 at bats, hardly numbers consistent with elite production.  With only Adrian "The Titan" Gonzalez left over from last year's power hitting group, Puig will have to hit and hit with more power.  He has to grow up and prove he's the "real deal". 


The 2014 World Series champion, San Franciso Giants, have been known to exceed expectations and confound experts predictions to win 3 championships in the last 5 years (2010-2012-2014)  This is very, very hard to do.  They've played a lot of close games and have a knack for winning the big game, especially in the post season.  This year's pitching staff, aside from Madison Bumgarner, the World Series ace, has a chance to be the worst starting pitching the Giants have had in years.  Jake Peavy (34), Tim Hudson (39), Ryan Vogelsong (37), Tim Lincecum (31), and Matt Cain (30) are not a group that inspires confidence for a postseason push.  Peavy has been very inconsistent and injury prone, Hudson is old and the once powerful sinker is not as effective, Vogelsong is aging and very inconsistent, Lincecum, is not "The Freak" anymore and has been so bad he might go to the bullpen.  Washed up at 31? He's lost about 5-6 miles off his fastball.  Cain, once the workhorse, is now throwing 91-92 when he threw 95 consistently with a killer slider. Still young, can he salvage his career? With these enormous question marks the Giants bullpen might be in for a long year. AT&T Park favors pitchers but with this group it will be difficult to "read the tea leaves" in San Francisco.  Bruce Bochy is known for his deft handling of pitching staffs, but I think this will be one of those head scratching years.

Head scratching year for Bruce Bochy  (zimbio.com)

NAME	AGE	HOME		AWAY
Tim Hudson	39	89	3.94	100	3.23
Ryan Vogelsong	37	100	3.06	85	5.10
Jake Peavy	34	101	2.85	101	4.60
Tim Lincecum	31	94	3.91	61	6.02
Matt Cain	30	47	3.64	43	4.78
The Home and Away columns feature IP and ERA

Tim Hudson was better on the road, but the others were awful away from AT&T Park last year.  With the aging factor, injuries and inconsistency, 2015 might be even worse.

SERIE DEL CARIBE

From February 2-8, the Serie del Caribe (Caribbean Series) will be played in host country Puerto Rico at Hiram Bithorn Stadium.  The four winter league champions from Venezuela, Mexico, Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico will be joined by the Cuban League Serie Nacional champion to play the 57th edition of this important regional baseball tournament.  It's "fiesta time" for baseball fans in these countries.  For baseball lovers all over, a good quality tournament in February is a real treat.

Recent tournaments have seen Mexico, once considered the "Cinderella", winning 3 of the last 4 ( 2011, 2012 and 2014) with Dominican Republic the champ in 2013.  Last year's Series featured very few Major League players with champion Mexico not having any current major leaguers on their roster.  Teams like Venezuela and Dominican Republic don't bulk up with star power so it's not an elite tournament but still very competitive.  Last year the Cuban entry, Villa Clara, seemed over matched at times. This year the Pinar del Rio team has 17 reinforcements to make it look like the Cuban National Team.

Some time ago the 'Serie del Caribe" went through tough financial times.  In 1990 and 1991 it was played in Miami.  The 1990 series was organized by Rick Horrow, a sports venture CEO, and played at the Orange Bowl, resulting in a complete disaster.  The playing field had about a 270 foot left field and the playing surface was in bad shape.  Edgar Martinez, Omar Vizquel, Geronimo Berrroa, Moises Alou were some of the stars that participated.  Felipe Alou led the Dominican team to victory.  The 1991 version of the series was played at Bobby Maduro Stadium and changed it's name to Winterball 1.  Though better than 1990, it still was not a success.  We saw players like Geronimo Berroa, Henry Rodriguez, Melido Perez , Luis Gonzalez and Andujar Cedeño.  The Dominicans also won this time under manager John Roseboro.  Geronimo Berroa was the MVP both years.  I attended all the games both years and while being impressed with the quality of some players, I was very disappointed with the organization and marketing of the event.  Something as important as this Series deserved much better.
 

Mays, Clemente, Buster Clarkson, Bob Thurman, George Crowe  Santurce 1955

There was a time when a lot of big name players took part in these tournaments. Hall of Famers,Willie Mays and Roberto Clemente played in the same outfield for the "Cangrejeros de Santurce" in 1955 at the Universitario de Caracas in Venezuela where they won the Series.  Mays started slow (0 for 13) but then caught fire going 11 for 13 to make the All Star team. The 24 year old Mays was coming off a year of .345 average with 41 HR's and 110 RBI's for the New York Giants in 1954.  Clemente, 20 years old at the time hit a modest .267 and did not make the series All Star team.  He was just establishing himself.  The Series MVP was SS Don Zimmer who hit 3 HR's.  The recently passed Zimmer was on his way to becoming one of the great baseball persons of our time.  Affectionately known as "Popeye", Zimmer was player, field coach, manager and bench coach.  He never drew a paycheck in his life that was not baseball related spanning 65 years.

The great Willie Mays homering at the Universitario de Caracas in 1955  (gettyimages)

The 1995 Senadores de San Juan that represented Puerto Rico in the 95 Series at Hiram Bithorn Stadium is the best collection of
baseball talent to put foot on a Caribbean Series diamond.  The all native Puerto Rican "Dream Team", demolished the opposition outscoring them 49-15 and going undefeated. Rey Sanchez, the regular season batting champion, hit 9th on this star-studded team.  Carlos Delgado C, Carmelo Martinez IB, Roberto Alomar 2B, Carlos Baerga 3B, Rey Sanchez SS, Juan "Igor" Gonzalez LF, Bernie Williams CF, Ruben Sierra RF and Edgar Martinez DH formed this fearsome 9.  Twenty years ago they made Puerto Rico very proud.  This group of players totaled 36 All Star appearances in the Major Leagues.  Only Carmelo Martinez and Rey Sanchez did not make any All Star team despite being good players.

Alomar, Carmelo, Edgar, Sanchez, Sierra, Baerga, Williams, Gonzalez, Delgado ( Dream Team 1995)

This is the same Hiram Bithorn Stadium where Javy Lopez hit a walk off HR off Omar Ajete of the Cuban National Team in 1993 carrying the Senadores de San Juan to a 4-3 victory.  The Cubans had manhandled amateur opposition and this showed that a different dog was in the fight. 

Miguel Tejada, the Bus Driver.

With today's average annual MLB salary around 3.7 million, there is no incentive for players to participate and for organizations to risk their investment in these tournaments.  Miguel Tejada, is one of the few players, even in his prime that was willing to always participate in the winter league and in this tournament.  Called "pelotero de la patria" he is also known as the "bus driver" for when he found men on base he always took them home.

Two of the young players to keep an eye on are:  Maikel Franco of the Dominican team who should soon be playing in Philadelphia and Javier Baez of Puerto Rico, one of the new wave coming to the Chicago Cubs. Baez has scandalous power but a high swing and miss rate.